‘Told ya’
Penn's recovery vindicates HG Vora's call to stick to the knitting
Turns out Penn converts riverboats better than it acquires OSB punters.
In +More: Kalshi appears on WC hoardings after ADI Predictstreet deal.
Plus 500 launches B2C prediction markets offering in the US.
Venture playground: New raises at Onyx Odds, Axom and Polysights.
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Knit one, purl one
Hate to say I told you so: Penn Entertainment has escaped its near-death experience with OSB and has revived its share price fortunes by concentrating on delivery at its regional casino business, apparently heeding the advice of activist investor HG Vora.
Such is the conclusion to be drawn from the 45% rise in the share price YTD, making them one of the strongest performers in the sector.
This since it canned its failed ESPN Bet operation in November last year and greatly scaled down its online ambitions.
It followed a bruising proxy battle that finally saw Penn accept the board placements supported by its activist investors.
Turn my back on the rot: HG Vora’s criticism always extended well beyond board composition, arguing that Penn had destroyed shareholder value by abandoning its traditional strengths in pursuit of an OSB dream.
The acquisitions of Barstool Sports and theScore, followed by the expensive ESPN Bet experiment were cited by the activist as examples of poor capital allocation.
Billions had been committed to businesses generating little meaningful shareholder return while Penn’s core casino estate risked becoming an afterthought.
That’s been planning the plot: At the time, management vigorously defended that strategy, insisting an interactive presence remained essential to the company’s long-term future. But the closure of ESPN Bet effectively brought an end to Penn’s ambition of becoming a significant national sportsbook operator.
The recent shuttering of the company’s sportsbook trading operation in Gibraltar, as per a LinkedIn post from former sportsbook chief Patrick Jay, reinforced the sense that Penn was retreating from the infrastructure built to support that ambition.
Digital has become a supporting business rather than the defining corporate narrative.
I see double up ahead: Such is also the message from the analysts who last week reported back from the opening of Penn’s latest renovated casino operation in Aurora, Illinois. Hardly any of the discussion centered on digital gaming.
Instead, Jefferies summed up the changed focus succinctly, describing Penn’s renewed approach as “the right regional strategy.”
The pivot has been accompanied by tangible operational success. Alongside Aurora, the company has successfully completed redevelopments at Hollywood Joliet, Hollywood Columbus and at the M Resort in Las Vegas.
As a result, Penn appears to be considerably better at relocating riverboats, building hotel towers and modernizing regional casinos than it ever proved to be at acquiring sportsbook customers.
It’s more or less the same as the things that you said: A consequence of this shift is a better financial profile, with CBRE’s credit analysts highlighting Aurora as marking the end of Penn’s most capital-intensive investment cycle.
Combined with interactive losses diminishing and refinancing activity reducing interest costs, leverage is now expected to improve steadily over the next two years.
The analysts said Penn has explicitly identified cash generation and deleveraging as priorities.
Home is where the heart is: The Penn turnaround has wider industry dimensions, suggesting regional operators can create more durable shareholder value by investing in assets where they possess genuine competitive advantages rather than chasing market share in areas of the sector dominated by digital-first operators.
That does not mean digital is unimportant; Penn still has theScore, particularly in Canada, and its Hollywood iCasino business.
But the online business no longer defines the investment case, which is now centered on extracting higher returns from a high-quality portfolio of physical assets.
Vindication: There is one final irony. Last week, Parag Vora secured approval for a gaming license from the Nevada Gaming Commission after a process that had initially appeared uncertain following a split recommendation from the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
The approval is largely procedural but it neatly closes the chapter on one of the gaming industry’s most bruising governance battles.
A year ago, Penn portrayed HG Vora as an activist whose proposals risked regulatory complications and threatened long-term value.
Today, its founder holds a Nevada gaming license and the activist’s nominees occupy seats in Penn’s boardroom.
Meanwhile, the company itself is pursuing a strategy that looks considerably closer to the one HG Vora advocated than the one management originally defended.
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+More
GCGRA-licensed Momentum has formed a JV with Fanatics to expand regulated commercial gaming in the UAE. Approved by the Emirates regulator, the partnership marks Fanatics’ entry into the UAE market and will focus on technology investment, customer experience, responsible gaming and supporting the long-term growth of the country’s regulated commercial gaming sector.
BetMGM will relaunch its Borgata Online platform on July 3, introducing a redesigned interface, streamlined navigation and a unified Rewards Hub that combines promotions, Borgata Rewards Points and MGM Rewards status.
Scorecard
Nevada: GGR rose 9.4% YoY to $1.32bn in May, with the Strip leading the gains as win increased 13.2% to $808m. Growth was driven by a 59% jump in baccarat revenue, helped by higher volumes and favorable hold, while slot revenue climbed 8%. Analysts at Truist and Macquarie also highlighted resilient underlying demand, noting Strip gaming revenue excluding baccarat rose 5% and convention attendance increased 15%.
Macau: GGR fell 12.1% YoY to $2.3bn in June, ending a year-long run of monthly growth as the World Cup weighed on casino demand. The MoM decline was over 18%. First-half GGR still increased 8.5% to $15.7bn. Analysts said football betting diverted spending from casinos but they expected a rebound after the tournament.
Deal talk
MGM China has agreed to acquire a mainland China hospitality management platform from a parent-linked entity for $20m, expanding its non-gaming footprint beyond Macau. The business manages eight operating hotels and 12 projects under MGM and Bellagio brands across China. MGM said the deal strengthens its long-term mainland growth strategy.
Predictions data
Ballers: The World Cup is driving a substantial uplift in trading volumes across all prediction markets, while Kalshi continues to be boosted by substantial combo trading, according to two reports on last week’s activity.
EKG’s latest prediction markets research for the week to June 28 estimated total contract volume reached a seven-day average of 2.63 billion contracts, up 7% WoW and 87% MoM.
Separately, Bank of America reported total volume hit a record high of $12.8bn, up 15% WoW.
Within this, Polymarket was up 17%, Kalshi up 16%, Rothera up 12%, Crypto.com up 6% and CME up 3%.
Sporting chance: EKG similarly found that Kalshi continued to strengthen its leadership position, with Polymarket US and Robinhood-backed Rothera also posting strong growth. But DraftKings’ newly launched DKeX generated only minimal trading activity during its opening weekend.
Sports contracts remain the principal growth engine. EKG estimated seven-day average sports contract volume reached 2.11 billion contracts, an increase of 11% WoW and 101% MoM.
Kalshi increased its share of sports trading to 54.7%, despite Robinhood directing more order flow to its proprietary Rothera exchange.
The analysts noted Rothera has already grown to more than three times the sports contract volume of Nadex, despite launching only in late May with a limited World Cup-focused offering.
Kalshi also was seen to be almost the sole driver for the booming sports combo contract volume, which ballooned 36% WoW and 148% MoM with Kalshi accounting for 96.8% of tracked activity.
+More predictions
Plus500 has expanded its US prediction markets strategy with the launch of CFTC-regulated sports event contracts on its proprietary Plus500 Futures platform. The new offering covers major US sports, including the NFL, NBA and MLB. The move represents the next stage of Plus500’s prediction markets strategy following its appointment in late 2025 as clearing partner for the CME/FanDuel prediction platform.
Name on the boards: Kalshi started appearing on World Cup hoardings this week after the company entered a strategic partnership with FIFA World Cup prediction market partner ADI Predictstreet. Beyond the tournament, the companies will collaborate on technology, market expansion and product development, with the aim of accelerating adoption of regulated prediction markets worldwide while leveraging Kalshi’s exchange infrastructure and ADI Predictstreet’s international distribution network.
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Venture playground
Funding news
Onyx Odds: The parent company of the crypto exchange Kraken, Payward, led a $20m Series A funding round for sports prediction platform Onyx Odds, which values the company at $220m less than two years after launch and less than a year after emerging from beta.
Founded in 2025, Onyx Odds operates a prediction market platform that allows users to engage with sports outcomes through exchange-traded instruments rather than traditional sportsbook products.
The company said it has attracted nearly one million users and achieved what it described as industry-leading retention rates, having previously raised less than $8m in venture funding.
On LinkedIn, Onyx founder and CEO Leul Dadi said it was “unbelievable what this team has been able to create with only $8m raised to date.”
As part of the investment, Onyx Odds will integrate with Payward Services, the infrastructure platform underpinning Kraken and Payward’s broader product suite, providing Onyx with access to Payward’s regulated US derivatives infrastructure.
It will also enable the integration of cryptocurrency trading directly within the Onyx app.
Payward said the arrangement will allow Onyx to expand its prediction market offering without having to independently assemble the required tech, licensing and operational capabilities.
Axom: The predictive intelligence company formerly known as Ibex.ai has secured a $2.4m funding commitment from existing investor the Capricorn Group to accelerate the development of its AI-driven decisioning platform and support the next phase of growth.
Previously incubated within Capricorn to optimize the lifetime value of its gaming investments, Axom’s technology was designed to improve customer engagement and maximize commercial outcomes.
The company said its platform delivered significant increases in NGR, providing the foundation for its current predictive intelligence offering.
The platform integrates with operators’ existing CRM, marketing automation and operational systems.
The new investment will be used to further develop Axom’s predictive intelligence platform, with the goal of creating a more autonomous decisioning solution and will support the expansion of technical capabilities across the iGaming and sports-betting sectors.
CEO Danny Rippon said Axom’s core proposition is helping businesses determine not only which customers to engage and when, but also identifying the “next best action” most likely to generate the highest commercial value.
He said the rebrand and funding would allow the company to scale those capabilities more rapidly and pursue broader growth opportunities.
Polysights: The AI-powered market surveillance platform backed by Polymarket has raised $1.5m in pre-seed funding to expand tools designed to detect insider trading and other suspicious activity across prediction markets.
The platform analyzes blockchain data to identify wallet clustering, unusual trading patterns and market anomalies, providing compliance tools for both users and institutional participants.
The funding comes as prediction markets face heightened regulatory scrutiny over market integrity following several high-profile allegations of insider trading.
The beta-phase is backed by investment firms YZi Labs, Maven11, Varys Capital, Contribution Capital and Edge Ventures.
Polysights said it aims to improve transparency by helping identify potentially illicit activity while preserving the open nature of blockchain-based markets.
Growth company news
Veltium has launched as a specialist services provider targeting sharp sportsbooks and prediction markets. Based in Ireland, the company will offer customer service, compliance and marketing support to operators entering prediction markets and is led by former Matchbook, Betdaq and Moon Intelligence executive Enda Kendrick.
Avanti Studios will supply Entain with its live casino portfolio under a multi-market distribution agreement, including a month’s exclusivity on its Blackjack game in Spain.
Booming Games has renewed its partnership with Hollywoodbets as an activation partner for the 2026 Hollywoodbets Durban July, reinforcing Booming Games’ commitment to South Africa’s growing gaming market.
Upcoming earnings
Jul 17: Evolution, Betsson
Jul 21: Hacksaw Gaming
Jul 22: Kambi
Jul 29: Churchill Downs (earnings)
Jul 30: Churchill Downs (call)
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