🌊 The micro wave

Microbetting GGR in US tipped to explode in next five years

Oct 07, 2024

Microbetting suppliers primed for “hyper growth,” say analysts.
In +More: Sporttrade’s investment boost, DraftKings shutters UK.
Wynn Resorts gains clearance in UAE as Macau news boosts share price.
La Française des Jeux’s shares ship 9% on tax hike fears.
ESPN Bet’s good news/bad news player survey.

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Wave of the future

Surf’s up: Microbetting could be worth over $2.8bn or ~10% of total GGR in the US by 2030 as operator focus on in-play betting encourages an acceleration in growth, suggested the analysts at JMP.

From zero in 2018, the JMP team predicts microbetting will be worth $545m of GGR this year or ~3% to 4% of total GGR.
That is then set to explode to over $2.8bn in 2030, triggering a period of “hyper growth” for the remaining indie suppliers in the space: Kero Sports, Huddle and nVenue.

Service game: Microbetting has been the subject of intense activity in the past few months led by the news in late August that DraftKings had bought the 85% of the shares it didn’t already own in supplier Simplebet for up to $195m.

Subsequently, Sportradar announced it would be working with supplier Huddle to bring more microbetting options to its managed trading services offering.
Last week, it also announced a similar arrangement with another supplier in the space, nVenue.
Sportradar has also announced the addition of new microbetting options to its ATP tennis product.

Market fit: The JMP analysts suggested that, unlike core iCasino players who tend towards older age groups, microbetting has “proven to skew younger,” more in line with the core demo for sports bettors.

Tom Daniel, SVP for trading at Huddle, agreed, saying the audience for higher frequency betting is “more tech-savvy and more adept at using social media.”
While JMP suggested US sports are “more conducive” to microbetting, Tomash Devenishek, CEO and founder at Kero Sports, said this belief was “outdated.”
Kero was seeing “tremendous success with soccer” with its international partners, a sport that “many thought would be a challenge for micro markets,” he added.

Change in focus: The JMP team suggested the rise of microbetting would come as the “parlay adoption story” starts to decelerate and as operators look to diversify into other areas of betting to increase their share of the customers’ wallet.

In terms of in-play generally, the US has lagged international comparators. but further in-play investment “should act as a catalyst,” said the analysts.

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+More

Betting exchange Sporttrade has received a significant boost after announcing that SIG Sports Investments, an offshoot of the Susquehanna financial group, has become a strategic investor in the company.

DraftKings has shuttered its UK-facing DFS operation as of last Friday with the company saying the move was about focusing on growth in other markets. The business was launched in 2016.

The week ahead

Top of the bill at G2E this week are some of the biggest CEO names in the sector, including Bill Hornbuckle from MGM Resorts and Peter Jackson, his equivalent at Flutter Entertainment, sharing the stage with Contessa Brewer from MSNBC on Tuesday.

The following day, Jason Robins from DraftKings will be talking alongside Derek Stevens, the founder and CEO at Circa.
In paying out 250 questions that the analysts at Macquarie want answered, the team said G2E offers the opportunity to “discern the direction of the domestic casino sector from here.”

Penn in hand: Analysts at Truist noted that Penn Entertainment will be holding an investor meeting today, Monday. “We get the sense investors understand the retail casino thesis for Penn while the online roadmap should be the core focus, thus bridging a path to deleveraging the balance sheet,” the team said.

Blow up: Recall, the Tropicana will be imploded in the early hours on Wednesday.

Kings of the wild frontier

Mid-eastern promise: A ballooning share price caused by investors betting that Macau stocks will be key beneficiaries from the Chinese government’s attempt to pump-prime the economy could yet enjoy a further leg up after Wynn Resorts confirmed on Friday it had received a gaming license from the Emirate.

As of close Friday, the company’s share price had climbed nearly 37% in the past month, valuing the business at $11.7bn.
The soaring valuation means Wynn joins eight other companies in the sector that are worth over $10bn.

🐪 Wynn Resorts’ share price in the last month

Wynn said in a press release late on Friday that it had been awarded the first commercial gaming operator’s license in the UAE by the country’s General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority. The authority previously awarded a lottery license.

Construction of the Al Marjan Island IR project in Ras Al Khaimah is already under way with partners Marjan and RAK Hospitality.
Recent analysis from Morgan Stanley said the potential for the Al Marjan project was “underappreciated” by investors.
The team noted the project could be generating revenue at maturity by year 3 of ~$1.8bn and adj. EBITDA of ~$500m.

Stimulated: However, it is the news from Macau that has catapulted Wynn into the $10bn+ club.

As noted on Friday, record visitor numbers in the first two days of the ongoing Golden Week provided early evidence that Chinese government efforts to encourage more consumer spending are paying off.

Shares watch

Ma Folie Française: La Française des Jeux may have completed its takeover of Kindred last Friday but that didn’t do anything to stop its 9%+ slide for the week, caused by fears over the French government considering a hike in gaming taxes.

French newspaper Les Echos suggested the authorities are considering a substantial increase in sports- and horserace-betting tolls.

Evolution suffered a 3% decline this week on fears that the strike at its facilities in Georgia reportedly resulted in the company laying off 1,000+ staff. In a note last week, the analysts at Jefferies lowered Q3 revenue estimates to reflect the likely disruption.

Light & Wonder saw its share price climb over 4% on Friday, leaving it in positive territory for the week, after CEO Matt Wilson released a video explainer for what was happening with regard to its now contentious Dragon Train slot game.

Wilson said the legal injunction would affect ~2,300 units in the North American market and it would be installing new games “so that Dragon Train is taken out of the fleet.”
In Australia, where Wilson noted the game had been very successful, he said new games would fill out the sales pipeline.
He added L&W would continue to be a franchise for “many years to come.” “Our intention is to build out Dragon Train 2.0,” he added, saying a lot of elements of the game were not affected by the legal order.

Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments' Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem.

By the numbers

ESPN Bet momentum

You’re welcome: If Penn’s strategy for ESPN Bet is to create a new cadre of sports bettors from the wider ESPN ecosystem, then it will be encouraged by the data from Jefferies’ latest OSB survey, which showed it is to an extent successfully cross-selling sports betting to a new audience.

Tell me what you want: But if the aim of the project is to take significant share from the market leaders DraftKings and FanDuel, then it will be disappointed with a range of focus group findings that “skew negatively” for the ESPN Bet brand.

Conducted in the week of ESPN Bet’s New York launch, the OSB survey found that of the 32% who used ESPN Bet – 302 respondents in total – 92% placed their first-ever sports bet with the app.
50% of new users were from the ESPN ecosystem.

Mis-skew: However, in the focus group findings, it found the ESPN Bet offering deficient in terms of markets, a UI and UX that was “significantly” behind the market leaders and, while promos were initially attractive, the majority of the group had returned to their original sportsbooks.

“Overall, a majority of the takeaways from the focus group skew negatively for ESPN Bet, despite positive results from our survey,” said the Jefferies team.
The analysts said the data also suggested there was a “low likelihood” that bettors would switch to ESPN Bet from other platforms.

More numbers

Kentucky: OSB GGR in the regulated market’s first year of operation came in at $272m from handle that hit $2.39bn. The state collected $37.7m of tax revenue.

FanDuel led the market by GGR with 39% share, followed by DraftKings (37%), BetMGM (7%) and bet365 (5%).

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Earnings calendar

Oct 17: Entain
Oct 23; Churchill Downs (e)
Oct 24: Betsson, Evolution, Boyd, Churchill Downs (call), GLP
Oct 25: Kindred
Oct 29: Caesars Entertainment
Oct 30: MGM Resorts

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