That sinking feeling
Evoke’s strategic review widens as share price wallows
A full sale or breakup is now on the agenda for the operator of William Hill and 888.
In +More: Bally’s expands loans, DraftKings advances predictions ambitions.
Earnings: Ainsworth Game Technology; Puts+Takes: GLP, Bally’s.
Venture playground: Outlier raises $10m from Discerning Capital.
Hard Rock Bet is growing – we know you know! And we want to bring in some more maestros to make beautiful music in our Sportsbook. You need to be among the very best in the industry to be considered for these roles. Are you up to it?
Distress signals
Up for grabs: A review on the part of bankers at Morgan Stanley that was initially instigated to look at a sale of Evoke’s operations in Italy is now looking at the potential of a full sale or breakup of the business.
Hard times: According to multiple sources, the scope of what is now a full strategic review has been altered by the deteriorating prospects for the company following the hikes in iCasino and OSB taxes contained with the UK’s recent Budget announcement.
The proposed 40% remote gaming duty and new 25% rate for remote sports betting are seen to be particularly harmful for Evoke.
According to its H125 numbers, over 52% of online revenues, or £336m, come from the UK & Ireland.
“I’ve heard that everything is on the table,” said one industry source with knowledge of the thinking within the company and who opted for anonymity.
Misery business: In response to the Budget, Evoke said the moves would add £125m-£135m in annualized costs once the increases were fully implemented from April 2027. Next year, it said the pre-mitigation impact would be ~£80m.
The company said it would hope to mitigate “approximately” 50% of the increases.
However, Sky News reported at the time that, in response to the tax rises, Morgan Stanley had been appointed to assess options for the sale of its online business in Italy.
Credit crunch: The share price has wilted since the tax hikes were announced and is now down more than 40% for the month. What will be worrying shareholders is the potential for the equity to be wiped out given the size of the company’s debt pile, which as of June stood at £1.82bn.
In September, the company announced a €600m offering of senior secured notes due in 2031, which was used to redeem €582m of notes due in 2027.
This lowered interest payments by £5m a year but added £17m to the total debt.
The next maturity is a $575m term loan and €450m of floating rate notes, both due in 2028, while £400m of notes are due in 2030. The company also has a £300m cash revolver at its disposal.
Slippery slope: Evoke shares hit by tax hike fears
At risk: “It is super highly leveraged and vulnerable,” said the industry source, who pointed out any survival plan would involve “very aggressive” cost-cutting to get the company to cash-flow neutral alongside the “sacrifice of something significant.”
The problem facing the bankers, however, would be the impact of any such sale on the ongoing business.
What would be evident is that a sale of a profitable business, such as the Italian operation, would deprive RemainCo of the profits.
We couldn’t turn around ’til we were upside down: Much has been made by the current leadership team of its turnaround strategy, in place since the appointment of Per Widerström as CEO in October 2023.
However, sources pointed out investors appear to have lost faith in the intervening two years.
Notably, chair Lord Jon Mendelsohn exited his post with immediate effect in November, to be replaced by Mark Summerfield.
Carry on cruising: “Every single trading statement has been a turnaround story but with no evident turnaround visible,” said one industry commentator who also requested anonymity.
“How many times can you keep promising and the tanker has refused to turn around? It’s not turning, it’s listing,” the source added.
“But the problem is that for anyone to buy it, they would need to see something of a turnaround.”
Original sin: The “fundamental issue,” suggested the commentator, is that 888 “should never have bought a company [William Hill] that was so in need of a turnaround and to do that deal entirely funded by debt.”
Now the future of the company is largely in the hands of the debtholders.
“It is going to be forced to do something under pressure, which it could have done earlier under much better circumstances,” said the industry source.
E+M approached Evoke with regard to the widening scope of the review and received no response.
So my supervisor (Carl) suggested I “find alternative ways to contribute.”
I’m interpreting this as “grow the LinkedIn page or get decommissioned.”
Follow Octoplay at:
https://mt.linkedin.com/company/octoplay-op
Thanks,
Octobot
+More
Bally’s has expanded its debt financing to $1.1bn to support its downstate New York casino license bid. The package includes a $600m term loan and a $500m delayed-draw term loan from Ares, King Street and TPG, each maturing in five years unless Bally’s cannot repay bonds due 2029. The delayed-draw facility would cover New York licensing fees if Bally’s wins a permit. See Monday’s E+M on Bally’s lengthy list of developments and ‘Puts+Takes’ below.
DraftKings has advanced its prediction-market ambitions after securing approval from the NFA and CFTC to operate as an introducing broker. The clearance allows DKNG to intermediate between users and designated contract markets (DCMs), enabling it to offer event contracts from its subsidiary Railbird as well as other DCMs.
ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market platform owned by Interactive Brokers, quietly launched sports event contracts in early November, according to InGame, which noted the sports product now dominates the platform’s Sunday trading volume.
Better Collective has disclosed it now holds 3.1 million treasury shares, equal to 5.01% of its outstanding capital, crossing the 5% ownership threshold. The company will call an EGM in early January to seek approval to cancel all treasury shares. Its ongoing buyback program continues, with €6.07m remaining for further repurchases.
Earnings in brief
Ainsworth Game Technology: The Australian-listed gaming machine provider said it expects an underlying profit before tax of approximately A$21.5m ($14.3m) for the year ending December 31, 2025, down from A$23.2m in 2024. Revenue for FY25 is forecast to rise around 9%, to A$287.8m, but the second half is expected to underperform. Underlying EBITDA for the full year is estimated at ~A$48m, slightly below last year’s figure.
On social
“Wow!!! Another ESPN guy and this one was at ESPN for nearly 20 years – that means he was there when theScore kicked ESPN’s digital ass years ago! Wishing you the best of luck Nate – I am around if you need any tips…” John Levy, founder of theScore, takes a sideswipe at a recent hire at Penn Interactive. Via LinkedIn.
Puts+Takes
Gaming & Leisure Properties: Citizens reiterated its Market Outperform rating for GLP, highlighting what it calls an “active” Q425 on the capital-deployment front and a well-positioned balance sheet to support roughly $3bn in committed growth projects.
GLP has already deployed about $430m since Q3 across five projects, led by the first $201m funding draw for Bally’s Chicago, part of a $1.2bn total commitment that carries an 8.4% blended yield.
It also funded $150m for a 375-room hotel tower at Penn’s M Resort, and has another $295m earmarked for Penn’s Aurora and Columbus expansions.
GLP additionally completed a $45m term loan as part of its $225m commitment to Caesars’ Republic Sonoma County tribal development; the associated 12.8% blended yield includes an option to convert at least $112.5m into a long-term lease.
The Citizens team argued these deployments remain accretive and strategically important: they deepen relationships with core tenants, broaden GLP’s customer mix, and add long-duration, durable rent streams.
Bally’s: The debt team at CBRE said Bally’s new $1.1bn secured term loan package removes key overhangs by addressing maturities, lender tensions and near-term funding needs – allowing management to focus on development.
The analysts said the structure improves lender alignment, reduces refinancing risk around 2029 unsecureds, and brings additional collateral into the secured pool, including Bally’s Intralot equity stake.
Bally’s Bronx casino bid, now recommended for approval, envisions a $4bn project with 3,500 slots, 250 tables and a 507-room hotel.
While GLP has expressed support via a non-binding offer to fund up to $1.95bn of hard construction costs plus land acquisition, Bally’s must still secure funding for soft costs and community investments.
With negative FCF and Chicago capex demands, leverage remains elevated and development financing will likely carry high LTVs.
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Venture playground
Fundraising news – Outlier
All that jazz: New Orleans-based sports-betting analytics company Outlier has raised a $10m Series A financing round, including secondary purchases, led by growth investor Discerning Capital.
The raise follows a recently established $5m user-acquisition credit facility from Discerning Capital and PvX Partners’ House Advantage Fund, bringing total new capital for Outlier to $15m.
Outlier’s subscription-based analytics platform, previously a social sports-talk app, now grants hundreds of thousands of users, across the US, the UK and Australia, access to real-time statistics, historical performance trends, odds comparison and sportsbook line movements.
The company claims tens of thousands of paying subscribers and more than 14,000 five-star reviews on the App Store.
The company said the new funding round will accelerate its next growth phase, which includes expanding its product roadmap, enhancing user experience and broadening its international footprint.
According to co-founder and CTO Luis Lafer‑Sousa, the capital will be deployed to advance Outlier’s analytic models, real-time data engines and predictive systems.
It will enable the platform to meet growing demand in a rapidly evolving sports-betting environment.
Standing apart: Managing partner at Discerning Capital, Davis Catlin, who will now join Outlier’s board, praised the company’s product and vision.
On LinkedIn, he wrote that the “thesis” for Outlier is “pretty simple at its core.”
“As wagering grows, more people begin to wager, they lose money and they look to get smarter about their bets,” he added.
“Outlier is a great tool to take advantage of that wave of consumers looking for betting tools.”
The funding will also underwrite expansion of Outlier’s product, engineering, marketing and customer-experience teams, enabling deeper investment in strategic partnerships with sportsbooks and adjacent tech providers.
The company plans to reinforce its presence in its three key markets and evaluate further international markets.
Growth company news
Clear signals: The Clearing Company has applied to the CFTC for a derivatives clearing organization license, a key step toward launching fully regulated, on-chain prediction markets, according to Betting Startups.
Backed by a $15m USV-led seed round, the firm aims to become the first stablecoin-native clearinghouse for event contracts.
Led by former Kalshi CCO Sam Schwartz, the team is building foundational clearing and settlement infrastructure rather than a consumer app, with an exchange application to follow and a targeted late-2026 launch.
The move signals accelerating efforts to bring prediction markets into formal federal derivatives frameworks.
U 2 me R everything: Everything Blockchain has unveiled a new in-house AI-driven trading system called Sports Edge AI, which targets sports prediction markets, especially via Polymarket.
Sports Edge AI continuously gathers live market odds, compares them with internally modeled probabilities, and flags perceived mispricings for trading.
The company said this gives investors rare public-market exposure to the emerging, still-undercapitalized sports-prediction sector, as part of its broader AI-driven digital-asset product roadmap.
Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments’ Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem.
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Really smart move getting that CFTC introducing broker clearance. The prediction market space is explodin and they're positioningperfectly to plug into multiple DCMs, not just their own Railbird. ForecastEx already proving theres massive demand with their sports contracts, so timing is ideal.