Souped up
DraftKings knits everything together with a super app
DraftKings claims super app launch answers the prediction challenge.
In +More: Underdog cuts jobs as pivots to predictions.
Earnings: Lottomatica, Sportradar, OPAP and Accel.
Venture playground: Kutt sells, Kash raises and PlaySignal is in focus.
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One vision
That car’s fine lookin’ man, it’s something else: DraftKings told investors on Monday it is merging its sportsbook, casino and prediction market products into a single ‘super app’ and chasing a $10bn revenue opportunity in event contracts.
The pitch was bold enough but the reaction was somewhat tepid, with the share price barely moving on the news.
Meanwhile, the analysts suggested the strategy makes sense on paper, but complained the company showed up without the numbers to back it up.
One big, beautiful app: The super app – to be branded DraftKings Sports & Casino – will display different products depending on where you live.
In New York, you get a sportsbook. In California, you get prediction markets. Everywhere, you get one brand, one download, one marketing funnel.
CEO Jason Robins said the redesign means national advertising can now convert demand in all 50 states.
Phase one is targeted for March Madness with full integration by mid-summer.
Come together: The analysts welcomed the logic. Citizens called it an obvious next phase. Macquarie said it should drive more efficient acquisition and higher lifetime value. But Stifel laid out a list of things that could go wrong in the near term:
Cramming sportsbook, casino, lottery, predictions and third-party exchange integrations into one app risks slowing it down, a known irritant for users of rival products.
Existing customers do not take kindly to big app overhauls, even ones that are ultimately improvements.
And the timing is precarious: DraftKings is rolling this out during March Madness, the NBA playoffs and the run-up to the World Cup, when any friction hits hardest.
Meanwhile, Truist added that a unified wallet, which management described as a goal, still faces unresolved complications around CFTC-regulated account structures.
Missing you: Then there was the lack of targets. Recall, during the Q4 earnings call just a fortnight back, Robins somewhat fluffed his lines with regard to the 2026 guidance, and yesterday the company steered clear of potentially confusing the picture even more.
Instead, it offered only a reiteration of 30%+ long-term EBITDA margins, a target that, as Citizens noted, has been on the table for years.
Deutsche Bank called the decision not to update targets “prudent,” arguing the old numbers had become an overhang.
Stifel was blunter, saying the omission reflected elevated uncertainty and unfavorable risk-reward in anchoring expectations.
Shine on: The prediction markets economics were the brightest spot. Management expects adj. gross margins to be some 10 to 30 percentage points above those of its sportsbook, because event contracts carry no state gaming tax and should require less promotional spend over time.
DraftKings plans to launch its own market-making division within months and eventually build in-house exchange and clearing technology.
On cannibalization, Truist reported that management sees no impact on regulated sportsbook handle so far, with January OSB handle up roughly 5% and February closer to 10%.
Stifel corroborated this, estimating less than 1% handle displacement to date.
Hyperactive: But even the optimists flagged competition. Stifel described the exchange and market-making profit pools as likely hyper-competitive and said real proof points on prediction market uplift will not arrive until the second half of 2026.
That comes once the product reaches parity with Kalshi and Polymarket, and marketing spend ramps.
Citizens reported that management itself acknowledged prediction market spend could still drag on the P&L into 2027.
Show don’t tell: Valuations tell the mood. Macquarie, the most bullish, sees DraftKings trading at roughly 10x 2027 EBITDA and called the 29% three-month share price decline an entry point.
Stifel and Citizens hold targets of $40 and $38 respectively but both counsel near-term caution.
The consensus is that DraftKings has the right assets and the right idea.
But until it can show prediction market traction, a working super app and a path back towards its old financial ambitions, the stock is a show-me story.
Further reading: See yesterday’s Puts+Takes edition (PRO subscribers only).
Robinhood on predictions
You to me are everything: During a Citizens investor conference earlier this week, Shiv Verma, CFO at Robinhood, said prediction markets were at the start of a “super cycle.”
“When we think of what prediction markets could be, our mental model is a digital newspaper and source of information,” he told the audience.
“So, whether you’re looking for economics, financials, lifestyle, sports, everything is there instantly and in real time.”
He added that Robinhood sees its advantage as being in the interplay between the products it offers.
“One of the things we have different from our competitors is we have brokerage, we have crypto, we have prediction markets.”
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+More
Underdog has cut over 20% of its workforce, or at least 125 people, as it shifts strategic focus away from traditional sports betting and paid fantasy contests toward building out national prediction markets. According to Front Office Sports, the layoffs hit areas including fraud operations, customer support, marketing and drafts.
Bally’s Intralot has announced that Nikos Nikolakopoulos, president of lotteries, will step down from his role effective March 16 but will continue to serve as non-executive director. Chrysostomos Sfatos will take on the responsibilities of lotteries’ president alongside his current role as COO.
Dumb money: PrizePicks has signed an always-on multi-platform partnership with creator brand Bob Does Sports (BDS), led by Robby ‘Brilliantly Dumb’ Berger. PrizePicks will be the exclusive fantasy sports partner across BDS’ social, podcast, live events and content, integrating live golf and interactive experiences directly into its platform.
Nasdaq has reportedly filed with the SEC to list binary prediction market options tied to its Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq 100 micro indexes, letting traders place yes/no bets on event outcomes at prices between $0.01 and $1.
Wynn Resorts is monitoring the escalating Middle East conflict and has contingency plans to protect employees in the UAE if required, according to comments cited by GGRAsia. The company is developing Wynn Al Marjan Island in Ras Al Khaimah – scheduled to open in spring 2027 – around 90 minutes from Dubai.
E+M PRO
Lottomatica
The Italian stallion: Accelerating market share gains online following the completion of the PlanetWin acquisition helped Lottomatica deliver a 21% leap in adj. EBITDA to €856m. Guidance for 2026 of adj. EBITDA at €940m-€980m sees the company knocking at the door of the €1bn mark.
See yesterday’s Earnings Extra edition (PRO subs only).
Sportradar
Entering the arena: The quarter’s strategic centerpiece was the first contribution from the IMG Arena acquisition, which closed on November 1 and which immediately proved accretive. Guidance was slightly below expectations but did not include “imminent,” and presumably significant, prediction markets announcements.
See this morning’s Earnings Extra edition (PRO subs only).
Earnings in brief
OPAP: The company delivered a record FY25, with GGR rising 4.9% YoY to €2.41bn, driven by robust online growth and strong retail performance. iCasino was a standout, growing 16.9% to €351m, while VLTs rose 6% to €366m.
Profitability was marginally softer, with EBITDA declining 0.9% to €825m, though recurring EBITDA grew 1.1% once one-off items were excluded.
Strategically, the imminent merger with Allwyn dominated the call. CEO Jan Karas confirmed the business combination is expected to conclude within Q226.
Karas was emphatic that the combined entity would retain its Athens Stock Exchange listing, remaining a central pillar of the Greek capital market.
He also signaled ambition for a digital-first retail transformation, moving from traditional agent-based gameplay toward a fully integrated digital ecosystem with a single app and unified customer account.
Accel Entertainment: The company reported Q4 revenue of $341m, a 7.5% increase YoY, and record adj. EBITDA of $56.3m, up 18.9%. FY25 revenue reached $1.3bn, growing 8.1%, with adj. EBITDA of $210m, up 11.1%.
The company ended the year operating 4,501 locations and 27,950 gaming terminals.
Growth was driven by core Illinois and Montana operations, alongside developing markets.
Nevada terminal count grew 13% YoY while Louisiana revenue increased approximately 75%.
A key focus on the call was Chicago’s potential VGT market, with management estimating 2,500 new locations over the long term, though a live date of late Q426 or potentially Q127 was indicated.
The company also completed a $900m credit facility, extending maturities to 2030.
A leadership transition was announced, with COO Mark Phelan set to assume the CEO role in August.
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Venture playground
Kutt sale
Kutt out and keep: P2P social-betting platform Kutt has been snapped up by Nasdaq-listed entity Bitcoin Depot in a deal that sources suggested is worth in the single-digit millions.
Bitcoin Depot is an operator of Bitcoin ATMs and the acquisition is its first leap into the world of P2P social betting.
“The Kutt team has built a strong product with significant potential for growth,” said Scott Buchanan, CEO of Bitcoin Depot.
“As we continue to grow beyond our core Bitcoin ATM business, we see a meaningful opportunity to support Kutt’s next phase through product innovation and expanded marketing reach.”
Bit(coin) between their teeth: Kutt was founded in 2023 by CEO Sim Harmon and CTO James Tice. The company raised $1.5m in seed funding from Lightning Capital and other angel investors. Both Harmon and Tice will continue with the business under the new owners.
Kutt has always been about bringing people together through friendly competition and making social betting simple and fun,” said Harmon.
“Joining Bitcoin Depot allows us to grow faster, accelerate our roadmap and build even better experiences for our community.
Fund raise news
Take the Kash: A “social-native” prediction market called Kash has raised $2m in a pre-seed funding round led by the Spartan Group and Big Brain Holdings with participation from Coinbase, Polaris Fund, Moonrock Capital, Halo Capital and Fabric Ventures. The company was founded by Lucas Martin Calderon, who also takes up the role of CEO.
In focus – PlaySignal
Who are you? PlaySignal was founded by CEO Alec Gehlot and launched in January this year. The UK-based firm guides player behavior in real time using a simple traffic light system and is built to tackle a growing problem in regulated iGaming: player protection often comes too late.
What’s the big idea? “Regulated iGaming is under pressure from both sides,” says Gehlot. He says regulators want earlier and stronger proof that players are being protected. Meanwhile, operators are expected to deliver that without ruining the product or pushing players to unregulated sites.
“Most responsible gambling tools don’t really help,” he adds. “They act too late.”
“PlaySignal was built to work during play, when it actually matters. It gives players a clear, real-time signal using a simple traffic light system: green, amber, red. No irrelevant messaging. No forced exclusions by default. Just clear feedback at the right moment.”
Gehlot notes that most players don’t want to lose control and that equally most operators don’t want to cause harm.
“What’s been missing is a way to guide behavior before things get out of hand,” he says. “That’s the gap PlaySignal fills.
KPIs: “Our primary KPI is reducing player exclusions through earlier intervention,” says Gehlot. “The goal is to protect players earlier and avoid pushing them towards unregulated operators.”
Funding backgrounder: The company is bootstrapped and has received no external funding to date.
Growth company news
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