Riot acts
Leading esports publisher opens up games to betting sponsors
League of Legends and VALORANT giant risks players’ ire, talks integrity.
In +More: Betting’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ blowback, Escalante’s ‘other’ sweeps biz.
Adjacencies: Robinhood launches tokenized shares.
Puts+takes: Jefferies trims DraftKings’ forecasts.
Hard Rock Bet is growing – we know you know! And we want to bring in some more maestros to make beautiful music in our Sportsbook. You need to be among the very best in the industry to be considered for these roles. Are you up to it?
Games changer
Did you see the stylish kids in the riot? Riot Games has officially announced that betting sponsorship opportunities will be open to Tier 1 League of Legends and VALORANT teams in the Americas and the EMEA region.
Shoveled up like muck: The move is part of the company’s vision for “building a sustainable future” for the esports ecosystem while opening new revenue streams for teams competing in Riot’s franchise leagues.
Set the night on fire: The developer cited Sportradar figures that showed total betting turnover involving League of Legends and VALORANT esports reached $10.7bn in 2024. It also suggested 70% of bets across all sports were placed with unlicensed operators.
Now you’ve got it all: Riot claimed that opening up betting sponsorships would help reduce risk to fans and the sport’s integrity.
Given the company cited a statistic covering total offshore sports-betting handle, the language seems a thinly veiled attempt to garner popularity among fans.
Now the stale chips are up and the hope stakes are down: Other global sports properties have long permitted betting sponsorship and are now going in the opposite direction.
The overriding trend has been towards the prohibition of gambling advertising, rather than vice versa.
High-profile scandals in American football and the English Premier League show that permitting betting sponsors is far from a guarantee of integrity.
Truncheons and shields: Riot-owned broadcasts and social channels will remain free of betting. There will be no adverts, no sponsored segments from betting partners, and no betting partner logos to feature on team jerseys.
The opportunity is limited to teams creating betting-adjacent content on social media within the confines of Riot’s guidelines.
Although esports fans are typically digitally engaged and frequent users of social media, not having any exposure to the main broadcast from a branding or content perspective is likely to make any partnership less attractive from a bookmaker's perspective.
You know I cherish you, my love: All operators wishing to engage in LoL or VALORANT partnerships must use GRID as an official data supplier.
This could add cost to betting operators, which may already have existing relationships with other esports data suppliers.
Now you’ve got it all, ah, the scene is obscene: All potential betting sponsors will have to be vetted by Riot, per the new guidelines.
Details on the vetting process and criteria operators must meet have not been disclosed by the publisher at this time.
If the company decides to follow Amazon-owned Twitch’s approach to limiting gambling content, Curaçao-licensed operators will be forbidden from entering sponsorship agreements.
Time will strip it away: Riot explained that, given only Tier 1 teams will be permitted to pursue betting sponsorship, a portion of revenues earned from the sports-betting program would be invested into the Tier 2 scene, including prize pools, integrity, and training and education.
The pledge to allow betting sponsorship reads akin to a new bill filed in the US legislature.
Proponents will continue to encourage it, while it’s unlikely vocal critics will have their opinions altered.
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Fair’s fair
Storm in a teacup: US Rep. Dina Titus of Nevada is set to introduce a bill that intends to reverse the tax changes for gamblers passed as part of President Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill Act,’ which allows gamblers to deduct just 90% of losses against 100% of gains vs. the previous 100% of losses.
Titus’ bill, to be called the Fair Bet Act, would restore the limit on losses gamblers can claim back to 100%.
The 90% cap was added to the Trump bill by the Senate and could result in assessed taxes exceeding net gaming winnings for players if approved. Titus said it would push gamblers to the black market.
Nothing to see here: Citizens dismissed the threat of the new tax changes, with the analysts suggesting that “broadly, this only impacts a small portion of overall gamblers, mainly professionals,” hence they don’t expect any long-term impacts.
In particular, they added that fears the bill would “kill the sports-betting industry is overblown.”
Predictable: However, they do see prediction markets operators as potentially benefiting from any failure of Titus to reverse the new tax, arguing that their players would not be subject to a “wagering tax” as the format sits outside of the gambling framework.
“Avoiding taxable losses can now be added to the list of better pricing and cashout for reasons that a sophisticated cohort (VIP, sharp, whales, professionals) could use the offering,” the team added.
Kickr conspiracy: VGWs minority shareholders, currently being asked to accept a “fair and reasonable” offer from Laurence Escalante to take full control, are reported to be up in arms after details emerged that Escalante set up a rival social sports-betting operation called Kickr. The business was set up by Escalante’s family office, Lance East Office, in 2023 and its only director is former VGW exec Todd McKee.
Star threat: Bally’s chair Soo Kim has threatened to withdraw from the company’s involvement in a A$300m ($195m) rescue of Star Entertainment should the Australian casino business be hit with a threatened A$450m fine from the financial watchdog AUSTRAC. Kim made the threat in an interview with Inside Asian Gaming.
Source of truth? A dispute has erupted over whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s outfit of matching black blazer and trousers, along with a collared shirt, at the recent NATO summit constitutes him ‘wearing a suit’ as per a market available on Polymarket. Bettors are apparently arguing the outfit wasn’t formal enough to count as a ‘Yes’ to the question posed as to whether Zelensky would wear a suit between May 22 and June 30. A decentralized oracle protocol called UMA, which handles dispute resolutions on Polymarket, is set to settle the question. (Editorial note: E+M does not understand all of the words in that last sentence.)
Read ahead
Parting grift: The company behind the Asian-facing operator SBOTOP, Celton Manx, has been fined £3.9m by the Isle of Man authorities after having been found guilty of a “significant” number of AML breaches. The company, which surrendered its Isle of Man license in May, got a 30% discount on the size of the original fine due to its cooperation with the investigation. In tomorrow’s Compliance+More.
Markets
Beautiful losers: The markets shut up shop before the final vote in the US House of Representatives on the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill,’ which contained the kicker of a new tax on gambling winnings. So, the major gaming stocks are yet to show if the move is destined to have any market aftershocks.
The sector’s biggest winner this week was Wynn Resorts, up 14%, followed by MGM Resorts, which rose 11%.
The latter will have benefited from the recent news of the company’s New York bid.
Bally’s was also one of the winners this week following the sale of its international interactive business to Intralot for €2.7bn in cash and shares. In paying down debt, the deal puts Bally’s in a better position to seek the finance to complete its permanent Chicago property.
The only notable loser this week was DraftKings, which hasn’t been helped by the noise around tax rates (see ‘Puts+takes’ below).
Armbands: After an initial opening day pop when it IPO’d, Hacksaw Gaming’s shares have settled at around SEK77, just above the float price of SEK75. However, a stabilization notice was issued by the company’s lead broker DNB Carnegie late on Friday.
Such a notice occurs as an effort to support the share price of the new listing and prevent excessive volatility.
The safety net remains in place for up to 30 days after a company has floated.
Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments' Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem.
Adjacencies – tokenization
That Riviera touch: Fresh from from the launch in the French Riviera of Robinhood’s new offering in Europe of tokenized shares of US companies, including private entities such as OpenAI and SpaceX, CEO Vlad Tenev spoke to Bloomberg’s Odds Lots pod about how tokenization would eventually be rolled out in the US.
“The necessary piece in the US is regulatory,” he said. “You need the rules.”
Where we’re going, we don’t need roads: He added that his company’s belief was this doesn’t require legislation. “The SEC can make the rules,” he added. “We’ve been working with them and the folks there are pretty keen to make this happen.”
“I think the EU launch shows that they are useful and it works well. My hope is that it will spur innovation and acceptance worldwide.”
Logical song: Tenev added that it was “hard to imagine an argument” for why investors should not have access to the potential growth of private companies via tokenized shares.
“You have access to so many things. You can just spend your money on Amazon and buy all sorts of trinkets that immediately lose value and depreciate,” he noted.
“You can buy meme coins. So the idea that those classes of ways to spend your money are okay, but buying OpenAI or SpaceX stock, I think on its face, it’s illogical.”
Not in my name: There has been pushback from one of the private companies that now finds itself the subject of tokenization, namely OpenAI. Via a posting on X, the company said OpenAI tokens “are not OpenAI equity.”
“We did not partner with Robinhood, were not involved in this, and do not endorse it,” the statement added.
Nothing can stop us now: But that is unlikely to stop Robinhood and Tenev who finished the pod with a statement that caught the ear. “Anything that people will want to trade, buy or sell and get liquidity on, will likely find its way on-chain,” Tenev concluded.
Puts+takes
Running with the bulls: Jefferies’ forecasts for DraftKings remain unchanged for Q2 with revenue at $1.4bn and adj. EBITDA at $212m, which is all but in line with consensus.
A trip to the barbers: However, after Illinois, New Jersey, Louisiana and Maryland upped tax rates the team are trimming their forecasts for the second half of the year.
Wind in your hair (cut): Jefferies said the combined tax increases would provide a $25m headwind in Q3 and Q4 and that an additional $10m headwind would come from the extra expense of the launch in Missouri. Adjusting for these, the team expects adj. EBITDA at breakeven for Q3 and at $460m in Q4.
This will leave FY25 adj. EBITDA at $775m, just shy of the company’s guidance of $800m-$900m.
The Kalshi effect: The increased taxes also weigh on Jefferies’ 2026 forecasts, alongside the detrimental impact of competition from the prediction markets space and the decision in Texas to ban lottery couriers, including the DraftKings-owned Jackpocket.
The analysts assessed the tax headwind at ~$80m, with Illinois being neutral due to the company’s surcharge plan.
Costs mount: Meanwhile, the team suggested Missouri and the planned launch in Alberta will cost ~$75m in launch fees, and they have also apportioned a placeholder $100m in costs against a prospective prediction markets launch.
Once totted up, for 2026, Jefferies sees revenues at $7.45bn vs. consensus of $7.55bn and adj. EBITDA down to $1.25bn vs. consensus at $1.45bn.
Quick takes: CBRE said they were “encouraged” by the signs of economic stability in China and the acceleration of GGR in Macau over the past few months. “While we don’t expect high-teen GGR growth to continue, we do see the potential for Macau to return to consistent GDP+ growth, which could be enough to rerate Macau gaming stocks higher” the team added.
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Upcoming earnings
Jul 17: Evolution
Jul 18: Betsson
Jul 23: Kambi, Las Vegas Sands, Churchill Downs
Jul 29: BetMGM, Red Rock Resorts, Caesars Entertainment
July 30: MGM Resorts, Robinhood
Jul 31: VICI Properties (call)
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