Prophet margin

ProphetX has pivoted again and is now eyeing wholesale distribution

Jul 17, 2026

CEO Dean Sisun makes the case for selling sports events as a B2B offering.
In +More: Jump Trading doubles its prediction markets operation.
Deal talk: Merkur buys White Hat Studios.
Puts+takes: Atlantic City poses competition issues for Caesars/Fertitta.

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At your service

Service levels: After eight years and a succession of pivots, ProphetX has settled on an identity that owes more to the wholesale plumbing of financial markets than to the consumer betting apps its founder once set out to disrupt.

CEO Dean Sisun wants the exchange to become a B2B supplier of sports-based event contracts to the brokerages now weighing an entry into prediction markets.
“Think of the Kalshi-Robinhood model or the previous Crypto.com-Underdog model,” he tells E+M.
“Those are the models we want to pursue and where we think the space is going. We have built a product for that and have partners due to go live in the next couple of months.”

You can get it if you really want: Sisun points to some $145tn of assets held across US brokerages and roughly 3,300 brokerage firms, all of which, he says, “could turn on prediction markets if they wanted.”

“If there is room for that many brokerages, there is room for an exchange like us to service many of them,” he adds. “That is how we think about it.”

Playing the field: Sisun’s argument is that brokers will not tie themselves to a single venue. Partners will want to “connect to multiple exchanges and route orders according to the best economics for themselves or their customers,” he says.

“Webull, for example, could plug ProphetX in and route sports orders to either Kalshi or ProphetX depending on who has the better price, the right market or the better unit economics,” he says.
“It is a very different competitive landscape from sportsbooks.”

Tune in, turn on: The thesis depends on prediction markets behaving less like the OSB duopoly and more like a commodity exchange open to any counterparty with the right permissions.

Asked whether Kalshi had already pulled off an OSB-style land grab, Sisun pushes back.
“Kalshi has a moat, but it is not an unfair moat,” he says. “It did the hard work. It did everything fair and square.”
“I am not going to pitch an FCM by saying we can do everything Kalshi does and do it better, because that is not true,” he adds.
“We cannot currently do crypto, political markets and economic indicators better than Kalshi. We can do sports better, so we will lead with sports.”
But other markets, he adds, are “relatively easy for us to turn on” once a partner supplies the demand to justify the liquidity.

Seven-year itch: Getting to this point has taken time. ProphetX incorporated in 2018, built and licensed a betting exchange in the UK, returned to launch in New Jersey during the pandemic, then pivoted into sweepstakes when other states declined to engage.

The unlock came when Crypto.com listed Super Bowl event contracts. “I said: I’ve been waiting for this for seven years,’” Sisun says.
An application to become a designated contract market followed almost immediately.

Against state gaming taxes that can run “somewhere between roughly 5% and 50% of gross revenue,” the CFTC-regulated model carries no equivalent federal levy and requires “one license rather than the work of entering every state separately.”

For a company without an established moat, Sisun says, “it was a no-brainer.”

What you’re proposing: Sisun is upfront about the regulatory risks at this point. He praises the CFTC – approval took seven months and the Commission was “genuinely interested in our product” – but he won’t be drawn on whether the status quo survives a Supreme Court challenge.

“It has to be 50-50; I have no idea,” he says, but his hope is that scale becomes its own defense.
“If the market becomes a multi-trillion-dollar industry, how difficult would it be to unwind all of it?”

Somebody tell Ken: He also believes the enthusiasm of DraftKings, and to a lesser extent Fluter/FanDuel, is real. “I have always thought FanDuel and DraftKings could become the Citadel of sports,” he says.

“Yes, prediction markets may be eating sportsbooks’ lunch, but market making is also a major opportunity for them.”
With Virtu and Citadel themselves yet to enter, Sisun argues, the market remains in “the very early innings.”

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Jumped up: Jump Trading has doubled its prediction markets team to about 20 this year and plans further hiring as institutional interest accelerates, Bloomberg reported. Jump began trading on both Kalshi and Polymarket last year and has agreements to receive small equity stakes for providing liquidity. The prediction markets’ exchange structure suits its automated market-making expertise, the news agency said.
Self-serve: Underdog has self-certified seven sports event contracts with the CFTC, advancing plans to operate its own prediction market exchange. The filings cover three baseball contracts, three basketball contracts and one open-ended contract tied to a team or player achieving a specified outcome. Underdog acquired PredictIt’s designated contract market arm Aristotle Exchange in March, reducing its reliance on third-party exchanges for trading.
Bandwagonesque: DAZN has agreed an exclusive global partnership with ADI Predictstreet to develop regulated sports prediction markets integrated with its streaming platform. The service will allow eligible viewers in licensed jurisdictions to make predictions around live events, using ADI Chain infrastructure for settlement and stablecoin capabilities. The partners will initially target DAZN’s international footprint, with a focus on launching in the US once the necessary regulatory licenses and approvals are secured.

+More

Tabcorp and Racing New South Wales are creating a National Tote, combining Australia’s three major race-betting pools into one system, according to the Australian Financial Review. The platform, covering NSW TAB, SuperTAB and UNITAB, is targeted to launch around Winx Stakes Day on August 22. Racing NSW will gain editorial control of the Sky Thoroughbred Central channel, while Tabcorp will permit sales of free-to-air rights and transfer control of international pooling arrangements.

Earnings in brief

Svenska Spel: Q2 NGR was up 7% YoY to $203m, its strongest Q2 since Sweden’s regulated market relaunched in 2019. World Cup activity and lottery and casino growth drove the result, with digital revenue rising 14% and representing 67% of gaming revenue. Operating profit increased 13% to $63.8m, while sportsbook and casino revenue rose 11%.

Read across

For those about to Rock: Gibraltar has become the first jurisdiction to create a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, offering the sector a third route between gambling and financial regulation. See Tuesday’s Compliance+More.
Little triggers: The UK Gambling Commission has still not proven the financial risk assessments system it wants operators to use is accurate, consistent or reliable enough to support decisions affecting customers, says Grainne Hurst, CEO of the Betting & Gaming Council. From yesterday’s C+M.

+More careers

Dillon Borgida, previously VP for VIPs and player experience at Underdog, has joined Kalshi as head of private client sales and services. “I’ve never been this hype for an opportunity in my life,” he posted on LinkedIn. “This company has a chance to be generational, and I’m excited to build in that environment.”
Crypto.com’s head of prediction markets, Chris Fargis, said via LinkedIn that he has stepped away from his role in order to “begin a new chapter.” He did not indicate where his next role would be but said people should “reach out if you’re building something fun and think there may be an opportunity for us to collaborate.”
Rank has appointed Richard Harris as permanent CEO. Harris, who has been CFO since 2022, had acted as interim CEO since his predecessor John O’Reilly departed in January.
Eugene Delaney has been appointed CCO of the UK Tote’s B2B operations. Delaney most recently worked at advertising firm Make Agency and has held roles at Paddy Power and Spotlight Sports. Additionally, Paddy Desmond has been promoted to group COO after working as the company’s chief revenue officer for the past six months. Gentoo Media has appointed Måns Svalborn as CFO. Svalborn has resigned from his previous post as CFO at Raketech and will take up his new post in October. Galaxy Gaming has appointed Anand Singh as CTO.
Stan Guidroz has been promoted to COO of Accel. He is currently CEO of Accel’s Toucan Gaming subsidiary. Meanwhile, Mark Phelan will relinquish the COO title and will become CEO of Accel in August. Wynn Resorts has appointed Andrea Aguirre-Jugueta as VP private access at Wynn Al Marjan Island.

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Earnings

Evolution: CEO Martin Carlesund insisted he was “overall happy” with the Q2 performance despite the 1.2% fall in revenue to €518m and the same drop on adj. EBITDA to €341m. Europe stabilized with QoQ growth of 3.5%, and the news this week of the £4.75m regulatory settlement with the UK Gambling Commission removes one overhang.

E+M PRO will release an Earnings Extra edition for Evolution later today,

Betsson: Turkey continues to trouble Betsson, as further revenue declines from the B2B business, where its Turkish earnings sit, meant Q2 EBITDA tumbled by 31% YoY to €58.5m. Revenue rose 2% to €310m, with the strongest growth coming from Latin America (up 32%).

Deal talk

Hat trick: European gaming giant Merkur has agreed to acquire US online slots supplier White Hat Studios for an undisclosed sum, adding an established iCasino content business to its growing North American platform.

The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals and no completion date was disclosed.
White Hat Gaming’s platform and white-label operations are excluded and will remain under their existing ownership.

If the hat fits: Launched in 2021, White Hat Studios has become a prominent supplier in the regulated US iCasino market and claims it was the first studio to distribute online slots across all seven regulated states.

Its portfolio includes the House of Brands collection, 7s Fire Blitz series and Jackpot Royale progressive network.

The art of the deal: For Merkur, the deal follows its 2025 acquisition of Nevada-licensed games and machine supplier Gaming Arts. Together, the businesses give the German group a broader US offering spanning online-first content and land-based distribution, while creating a route to develop games across both channels.

Merkur previously expanded online through its acquisition of Blueprint Gaming in 2012.
White Hat president Andy Whitworth described joining Merkur as the “best possible move” for the studio’s growth and product ambitions.
In a LinkedIn post, he said Merkur would provide a platform to accelerate growth, increase innovation and strengthen White Hat’s omnichannel proposition.
White Hat was advised by Oakvale Capital and CMS, with Wiggin acting for Merkur.

Puts+takes

Caesars/Fertitta: The competitive picture in Atlantic City could provide one stumbling block to the merger deal, according to the team at Jefferies, who noted the combined entity would on paper control 25% of the market with four of New Jersey’s nine casino licenses.

“We believe there is a possibility that state regulators could require the divestiture of one property as part of the approval process,” the team added.
The analysts added that growing gaming supply in neighboring states has “reduced the strategic appeal of Atlantic City assets, which could complicate a potential sale.”
“Notably, all of Caesars’ Atlantic City properties operate under lease structures, while Golden Nugget owns its casino real estate,” they wrote.

Wynn Resorts: Wynn’s18% YTD share price decline has left the stock materially undervalued, despite legitimate concerns over Macau, softer Las Vegas trading and uncertainty surrounding its UAE project, suggested the team at Stifel. The analysts lowered their Macau and Las Vegas estimates but argued its revised forecasts were deliberately conservative. At ~8x forward EBITDA, Wynn’s valuation assigns little value to Macau or the UAE.

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Connections

Playtech subsidiary VS Technology became the 23rd company to receive a gaming-related vendor license from the UAE’s GCGRA. Meanwhile, EvenBet Gaming has secured a five-year Swedish iGaming license.
Fast Track will supply its CRM, Rewards and Greco products to RB Holding’s NetWin in Italy, while Setanta Bet will integrate GR8 Tech’s sportsbook iFrame in Georgia. Tequity has partnered with Koom Games, Hacksaw Gaming launched with Kaizen Gaming’s Betano in Buenos Aires City, Enjoy expanded in Italy through Marathonbet and Evoplay entered Austria via win2day.
Bally’s Intralot has extended its Irish National Lottery technology agreement by seven years to 2034. Meanwhile, Aristocrat Interactive will provide its Fusion aggregation platform to Loto-Québec, expanding its iGaming content to every regulated lottery market in Canada.