Pales in comparison
DraftKings Q1 earnings provide stark contrast with FanDuel
Sportsbook leads the way as company boasts of 64% adj. EBITDA uplift.
In +More: Kalshi confirms its $22bn valuation.
Puts+Takes: Analysts react to Flutter’s Q1s and the defenestration of Amy Howe.
Adjacencies: Getting to know Jump Trading.
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Compared to what
Nothing compares 2 U: The reason why Flutter opted for change at the top of FanDuel appeared obvious overnight after rival DraftKings delivered what CEO Jason Robins described as a “fantastic” set of quarterly numbers.
Q1 revenue came in up 17% YoY to $1.65bn while adj. EBITDA soared 64% to $168m.
The company said that if not for the Arkansas launch and the investment in the prediction markets offering, it would have exceeded $200m.
In his shareholder letter, Robins said the company was “off to a fantastic start to the year.”
Pale comparison: In comparison, earlier in the week Flutter Entertainment said that while FanDuel’s revenue rose 6% to $1.76bn, adj. EBITDA fell by 26% to $119m, with the company blaming the reverse on the after-effects from the generosity missteps in the prior quarter.
Implicitly, the lackluster numbers lay behind Amy Howe’s departure as FanDuel CEO, announced on Wednesday.
The DraftKings edge: FanDuel’s market share lead was “always transient,” said Regulus, driven by Flutter’s “massive advantage” in SGPs and iCasino experience. “Both drivers can be copied in theory and have been effectively copied in practice by Draftkings.”
In addition, the team said, Draftkings has “delivered more targeted bonuses, superior mass-market UX and consistently more effective VIP management.”
Stifel was more sanguine, pointing out that while DraftKings is “pacing ahead,” the limited visibility on what is happening under the hood makes it “difficult to distinguish whether this is outcomes-driven or more structural.”
The tale of the tape: Sportsbook was the prime driver for DraftKings’ relative outperformance, with revenue increasing 24% YoY to $1.1bn. iCasino was not so impressive – while revenues were up 9% to $461m, it marked a growth rate deceleration from recent trends.
Deutsche Bank said adj. EBITDA was in line with consensus expectations but, they believe, ahead of recent investor expectations.
But they noted that handle growth of ~1.5% was a deceleration compared with Q4’s 12.7% YoY improvement.
The team also pointed out that 1.5% marks a deceleration compared to the 4% spoken about by DraftKings on their Q4 call.
The road to perdition: Truist said DraftKings is “charging hard down the prediction path,” and the company said that in April the predictions product enjoyed “consumer volumes” of over $1bn and that annualized total volume traded exceeded $2.3bn.
DraftKings has already launched its own market-making operation and this is “already generating a positive return.”
It noted it was also prepping for the launch of a proprietary exchange and would begin offering combos.
As of next quarter, the company said it would be including both sportsbook and sports predictions in its ‘sports revenue’ numbers.
“Sports Predictions and sportsbook serve the same customers in the same live moments and leverage a shared underlying infrastructure,” Robins said in the shareholder letter.
Cakeism: Regulus said DraftKings was “putting on a braver face” versus its major OSB rivals regarding prediction markets, suggesting that whatever the legal landscape it will “have its cake and eat it” by having a viable product without heavy investment in a market that “might not exist in three years time.”
Citizens said the move into market making was an “underappreciated” opportunity and “could serve as an upside catalyst.”
Despite the investment in the sports predictions offering, DraftKings maintained its 2026 revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance.
Diary date: The company will host its call with the analysts BMO in New York later today.
Octoplay has launched in Georgia through a strategic partnership with Adjarabet, the country’s leading operator. 🇬🇪
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Raising the roof: Kalshi has announced via a blog post the $1bn Series F raise led by Coatue Management that was previously reported by Bloomberg. The raise, which includes the participation of previous investors Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley and ARK Invest, values the business at $22bn.
Rush to market: Rush Street Interactive shares slipped 4.5% on Wednesday after executive chair Neil Bluhm, CEO Richard Schwartz and COO Mattias Stetz revealed a plan to offload a combined 10 million shares as part of a secondary offering. RSI plans a $30m repurchase alongside a newly approved $100m buyback authorization.
NorthStar Gaming has disclosed that the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) issued a failure-to-file cease trade order after the company missed its 2025 annual filing deadline. The order followed the withdrawal of the auditor’s prior audit report over concerns tied to a technology vendor SOC report and player account management controls. NorthStar rejected the auditor’s position but has postponed its AGM while it works to complete the required filings and resolve the audit dispute.
Meanwhile, the struggling Rivalry has disclosed that it has also been issued a failure-to-file cease trade order by the OSC after the company failed to submit its 2025 audited financial statements. The order halts trading of Rivalry securities in Canada and the cease trade order will remain in place until the company completes the required annual filings.
Deal talk
LCKY Group has acquired Danish-facing iCasino operator RoyalCasino, expanding the group’s footprint in one of Europe’s most established regulated markets. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Read across
Non stop: The Australian regulator announced yesterday that an investigation into Entain Australian brands, Ladbrokes and Neds, has uncovered more than 500 breaches of the country’s national self-exclusion rules. From yesterday’s Compliance+More.
+More careers
Super Technologies made four appointments, including Mina Dimitrova as chief strategy officer. Dimitrova joins from previous roles at Google, YouTube and McKinsey & Company. Olatz Urroz has been hired as CFO, Sergio Ezama will now serve as a non-executive board member and Andrew Watts was appointed CPO.
BetMGM CMO Casey Hurbis has announced via LinkedIn his departure after 18 months in the role. His replacement has yet to be named.
Canada Affiliate Manager – Toronto
USA Affiliate Manager – New Jersey
Head of Product Design – Remote
Puts+Takes – Flutter
Nibbles: The analysts have taken at face value Flutter’s claim that FanDuel’s decline in handle in Q1 was due to the decline in the number of actives dating back to Q4 and bleeding into the past three-month period, rather than necessarily any prediction market cannibalization.
But the team at Deutsche Bank suggested that while attention continues to be focused on OSB, the market is somewhat overlooking the performance of iCasino.
This, they pointed out, continues to “perform strongly,” up 19% YoY, and from a revenue perspective is now half the size of OSB and “far less impacted by prediction market noise.”
Surprised face: Still, the departure of FanDuel CEO Amy Howe – “unexpected” in some quarters, “not surprising” in others – “adds a layer of questions to the US story,” according to Citizens.
The Howe move, alongside the promotions of Christian Genetski to FanDuel CEO and Daniel Taylor to the new post of president of Flutter, come “in the midst of meaningful shifts in the US OSB business,” said CBRE’s team.
This involves being “focused on getting more front footed and investing into its prediction market platform,” the team added.
Stifel said the confusion being caused by the emergence of prediction markets would likely “continue to weigh on online gaming valuations.”
E+M PRO
Wynn Resorts
Engulfed: CEO Craig Billings opened the call with analysts by addressing the progress of the Al Marjan Island project in the UAE, saying that given the logistical challenges posed by the ongoing conflict in the region, it means a likely “modest” delay to the opening of the IR.
See the Earnings Extra edition to be sent later this morning (PRO subs only).
Genius Sports
A swing and a myth: Genius Sports delivered a clean quarter alongside the most consequential strategic event in the company’s recent history, with the May 1 close of the Legend acquisition, and a pulled-forward margin trajectory. Revenue rose 31% to $188m with adj. EBITDA up 21% to $24m, but with $825m of new term debt, a Q2 cash burn trough ahead and a H2 reacceleration baked in, the year ahead is now a test of execution.
Note: the company has pointed out that Q2 will mark the low point with an end-of-period position of ~$140m-$150m, given one-time transaction impacts, not as yesterday’s edition suggested that it would burn that amount.
See the amended Earnings Extra edition from yesterday (PRO subs only).
Light & Wonder
What lies beneath: Light & Wonder opened 2026 with a quarter that looked steadier on the surface than beneath it. Adj. EBITDA of $327m rose 5% YoY, with margin expansion across every segment and the 23rd consecutive quarter of premium installed base growth. Yet price targets were lowered on a softer FY26 guide and a leveraged buyback acceleration that is now front and center.
Flutter
Howe soon is now: The sudden departure of FanDuel CEO Amy Howe grabbed the headlines, but likely more concerning for investors is the lowered expectations for 2026. Delivery is now very much back-half weighted, with prediction markets investment ongoing, the upcoming World Cup and FanDuel operational improvements making it a crucial six months for the erstwhile market leader by market cap.
See yesterday’s Earnings Extra edition (PRO subs only).
Earnings in brief
Full House: Adj. EBITDA rose 15% YoY to $13.2m, driven by growth at American Place Casino and improving trends in Colorado. Revenue was marginally down at $74.4m. American Place revenue climbed 7.1%.
ZEAL Network: The lottery reseller grew Q1 revenue 6% YoY to €54.3m despite a weak jackpot environment, with monthly active users rising 5% and registrations increasing 11%. However, EBITDA declined 13% to €15.5m as the company increased investment in marketing, personnel and product expansion.
Inspired Entertainment: Q1 revenue declined 5% YoY to $57.2m following the UK holiday parks divestiture, but adj. EBITDA increased 29% to $23.7m. Interactive revenue rose 38% while Interactive adj. EBITDA climbed 53%. Inspired reiterated FY adj. EBITDA guidance of $112m-$118m.
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Connections
The big deal: The Lottery Corporation (TLC) has received a 40-year extension for its lottery license in the Australian state of Victoria after paying A$1.145bn ($827m). The agreement extends TLC’s license all the way out to 2068 at a price consistent with other licensing deals, the operator said. TLC will make an upfront A$250m payment this year and a subsequent A$895m payment on October 1, which will be funded through a new A$1bn credit facility and A$145m from existing facilities. TLC’s lottery licenses are now set through 2050, providing a stable long-term earnings profile for the business, the operator said.
FanDuel is now the official betting partner of Formula 1, marking the leading autosport’s first partnership with a betting operator in the US. Abelson Sports is to integrate European basketball props from Odds Composer under a new partnership. Octoplay’s games are now available in Georgia on Flutter’s Adjarabet platform. Hacksaw Gaming’s titles are to become available on Sun International’s Sunbet in South Africa.
Still overpaying for geolocation? Find out why over 25 operators have upgraded to GeoLocs!
Adjacencies – Jump Trading
The plumbing: Of all the Wall Street and Chicago names that could anchor the institutional build-out of prediction markets, Jump Trading is among the most consequential and potentially the most telling.
The Chicago-based proprietary trading firm was founded in 1999 by two former CME pit traders and now employs more than 1,600 people across 13 global offices.
It has quietly become one of the earliest proprietary trading firms to make markets actively on Kalshi-style event contracts.
Just last week, it was announced that Kalshi had completed its first-ever bespoke block trade, with Jump Trading providing liquidity for the prediction market exchange.
Trust-a-trader: In February it emerged via Bloomberg that Jump will earn small equity packages in both Polymarket and Kalshi in exchange for providing liquidity, with the Kalshi stake fixed and the Polymarket stake scaling with market-making activity.
The firm has reportedly already assigned around 20 traders to the business.
Equity-for-liquidity is not how prime brokers serve CME futures.
Rather, it is an innovation that came about in the world of crypto trading when venues bootstrapped order books in 2018-2021.
Jump knows the playbook: it built Jump Crypto in 2021, ran market-making across CeFi and DeFi, and incubated Wormhole and Pyth.
Both sides now: Notably, Polymarket settles on-chain on Polygon, and serious two-sided quoting there demands wallet, bridge and MEV-aware infrastructure that very few traditional proprietary trading firms can stand up quickly.
Citadel Securities, Jane Street and Virtu can match Jump on equities latency; on crypto rails, not so much.
Prediction markets are also not Jump’s first brush with event pricing. The trader previously ran a sports-betting team in London that traded on platforms such as Betfair in the late-2010s before winding it down around 2023.
Jump Capital, the founders’ venture arm, was an early backer of regulated prediction market Sporttrade.
The competitive context: Susquehanna International came in as Kalshi’s main institutional market maker in 2024, leveraging its options pedigree to tighten spreads, and Jump’s arrival broadens the market-making waterfront rather than displacing it.
Upcoming earnings
May 8: DraftKings (call)
May 11: Super Group (earnings)
May 12: Super Group (call), Brightstar, Catena Media, DoubleDown Int.
Soft2Bet Evaluates Alberta Market Entry to Strengthen Canadian Footprint
Soft2Bet has announced its intention to enter the Alberta iGaming market, pending regulatory approval. Leveraging success from its Ontario brand, ToonieBet, the company eyes a market projected to exceed $700 million at maturity. Soft2Bet is currently preparing for technical requirements under the iGaming Alberta Act, overseen by the AiGC and AGLC.
“We are committed to delivering localized, engaging experiences that reflect the unique preferences of each market,” said David Yatom Hay, General Counsel, Soft2Bet.
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