Overstated
Overstated
Figures attached to size of sweepstakes market misleading, say analysts
The sweepstakes bandwagon may be smaller than some had hoped.
In +More: BallyBet app launch, Codere debt reduction.
Entain drops the idea of selling Crystalbet, says rebound ahead of plan.
Dabble posts some numbers, says an IPO is a possibility.
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Bandwagonesque
Accounting for dummies: The nature of how sweepstakes casino revenue is accounted for means estimates based on figures from market leader VGW may be overestimating the size of the market by as much as 4x, according to the analysts at Regulus.
Sidestepping arguments about the legality of sweepstakes in the US, the team pointed out estimates put about by supplier GiG recently suggested the market could be worth ~$6.5bn next year.
However, the detail of the accounting treatment for sweepstakes casinos means their gross revenue is not equivalent to GGR in online gaming.
“The accounting treatment of sweepstakes casinos overstates comparable gaming revenue by a factor of about four,” said the Regulus team.
Out of this world: To get to the $6.5bn number, the Regulus team pointed out the most-regularly quoted figures come from market leader VGW, which showed annual revenues in the year to June 2024 of A$6.1bn or ~$4.1bn.
But there is an accounting issue with this number: sweepstakes offer the ability to win prizes for free – that is the nature of the workaround.
Hence, “in accounting land,” revenues from customers paying to participate cannot be directly linked to prizes paid out.
Small print: Consequently, the analysts stated, sweepstakes casinos logically book player deposits as revenue and deduct cash prizes as a cost of sales – and the figure that real-money casinos recognize as revenue is buried by VGW as gross profit.
Back in 2019 VGW was paying out 50% of deposits in prizes, while the ratio now seems to be closer to 75-80%, and Regulus argued new entrants will be “at least equally generous.”
In other words, said Regulus, given an increasingly competitive and content-driven environment, sweepstakes casinos have moved from a real payout ratio that looked similar to a lottery to one that looks identical to real-money gambling.
“Cash in minus cash out is very different and much cleaner than cash in plus cash shaken all about with recycling to create theoretical stakes and theoretical winnings, but it nets to the same figure.”
The bold and the beautiful: The Regulus team calculated VGW’s net revenue was ~$1bn, not the $4.1bn implied by its annual results. This is still enough to explain why social casino went ex-growth as VGW gained scale.
But growth from this point will only come from the “bravest and most competent” sweeps operators.
Built on sand: This is not the foundation, the team argued, upon which “the hopes and dreams of an entire new sector” can necessarily be safely built upon.
“Probably the most dangerous thing about bandwagons is that they are often very much smaller than they appear,” they concluded.
“These ersatz and workaround gaming products can in no way compare to the revenue generating capability of real-money gambling where it is allowed.”
Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments' Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem.
Evoke Q3 update
Breaking: Evoke, parent to William Hill and 888, has announced revenues of £417m for Q324, up 3% YoY, its first quarter of YoY growth since Q122. Nevertheless, the company made no change to previously issued guidance for H224 revenue growth of 5-9%. Online rose 8% overall and 11% in core markets, which now represent ~85% of the group’s online revenues.
Noting he was now a year into his tenure, CEO Per Widerström said: “We are moving decisively and at pace to position evoke for long-term growth.”
E+M will report further on Evoke in Monday’s edition.
+More
The Bally Bet Sportsbook app has officially launched in Tennessee, the tenth state for the app and coming soon after launches in Massachusetts and Maryland.
Codere has completed its debt reduction program, getting net debt down to ~€65m from its nadir of ~€1.4bn after it exchanged debt for equity. The plan was approved by 99% of its creditors.
Inspired Entertainment and FanDuel have formed a strategic partnership for the integration of the supplier’s hybrid dealer product.
By the numbers
New Jersey: B&M gaming was down 6.5% YoY in September while iCasino rose 27% to $208m, bringing closer the day when online overtakes traditional gaming. Sports-betting GGR was up 8% to $120m.
Pennsylvania: B&M GGR was down 2% to $270m in September while iCasino GGR rose 11% to $177m. OSB was up 46% to $89.5m while net of promos it was up 47% to $47.2m.
Michigan: B&M gaming GGR was up 1% to $101m while iCasino GGR soared by 22% YoY to $203m. OSB was up 33% YoY to $58.4m on handle up just below 10% to $502m.
New York: OSB GGR for September rose 24% to $205m on handle that came in at over $2bn, up 18% YoY.
For more By the Numbers, see Monday’s E+M.
Read across
Bedfellows: The Token Word spoke this week to one of the founders of Prediction News about how the convergence between the rise of crypto and that of prediction markets in the current electoral cycle in the US appears to be no coincidence.
Ass kicking: Michigan is quickly gaining a reputation as the most proactive state when it comes to shutting down what it views as illegal gambling, having sent out 11 cease-and-desist letters so far and with the promise of more to come. In Compliance+More.
+More careers
The big move: FDJ has wasted no time in remaking the board composition at the acquired Kindred business. Out go chair Evert Carlsson and directors James Gemmel, Cédric Boireau, Andrew McCue, Jonas Jansson and Kenneth Shea.
In comes Pascal Chaffard, the new chair and currently executive VP of finance, performance and strategy at FDJ.
He is joined by Edeline Minaire, FDJ finance director, and Célia Vérot, FDJ’s chief regulation officer.
The only remaining ex-Kindred directors, Heidi Skogster and Martin Randel, will stay in situ until Kindred’s next annual general meeting, to be held in 2025.
Simon Hammon, former CEO of Relax Gaming, has launched an eponymous consultancy business. Via LinkedIn, he said he has built his career in the online sector and now wants to share his knowledge of the industry’s “constantly changing dynamics.”
Simon Westbury, CEO at Sport Generate and previously chief business officer at Digitain, has announced he is leaving the organization after five-and-a-half years. He said on LinkedIn that the last half-a-decade has been “more than a job: it has been an all consuming passion.”
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Back in the fold
Clear as crystal: Much was made earlier in the year of Entain’s strategic review process, which was tasked with determining if there were elements of the business that could be deemed non-core.
Didn't get any offers then: The review concluded that the Georgia-facing Crystalbet should be put up for sale. Now, however, the company has decided the business is “more valuable to the group remaining as part of our portfolio.”
Entain added that “frankly” for what the company was offered it was decided it was “not worth selling at those prices and we decided to keep it.”
We’ve only just begun (redux): Having spent the past seven weeks walking the shop floor, new CEO Gavin Isascs said, while Entain would continue to assess all of its portfolio of brands, it would “only sell assets at a proper valuation and if it makes strategic sense.”
Entain is “at the beginning of its journey,” which may come as a surprise to company watchers who have been following it for decades.
Green shoots: Still, after a tortuous couple of years in the wilderness, Entain’s UK & Ireland business has made its predicted return to growth in Q3, albeit a modest 2% increase with a 2% retail decline acting as a drag on online growth of 6%.
Isaacs repeated the message that this return to growth in the UK was “sooner than expected,” although CFO Rob Wood suggested the growth was largely due to the lapping of regulatory measures from last year.
He noted the last time the UK & Ireland business was in positive territory was in Q221, over three years ago.
Love lift us up where we belong: Across the group, NGR including the 50% stake in BetMGM was up 8% in constant currency terms, with online up 9% and retail down 1%. A bright spot was Brazil where NGR was up 48% YoY, while BetMGM saw Q3 revenue climb 18% YoY with online market share “stabilizing” as 15%
Wood said Entain was ”back where we should be” with the Q3 growth.
He added that in Brazil, the company’s expectation was there would be a “long tail of exits” from the newly regulated market from January onwards.
Try your hand
Dabble fantasy: In releasing its earnings for the year to June, the Australian-based betting and fantasy sport operator Dabble said it was considering a potential IPO either in Australia or the US and has received “early feedback” that it could make a “promising prospect.”
A sale could also be an option, with Dabble saying it could be an “attractive” acquisition target to a relatively large pool of potential suitors.
Making a splash: Dabble’s US-facing DFS app only launched in October last year and achieved registered users of over 670k by the Super Bowl and 850k by June, generating $28m in GGR in the year to June. In Australia, meanwhile, revenues came in at A$76m ($51m), up 44% YoY.
Total revenues rose by 150% to A$117m while gross profit grew 225% to A$59m.
In the six months to August just gone, the company produced more than A$10m of EBITDA.
At the dabble: The company said that in the year ahead it expects to be able to more than double its Australian market share to 5%+, while in the US it noted it has “just scratched the surface,” with 5% market share also the target.
Meanwhile, Dabble said the UK is its next planned market launch, some time in 2025 with both in-play betting and iCasino being added as products.
The company is forecasting revenues for 2025 of over A$200m with A$500m the base case target for 2027.
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Earnings in brief
Rank: The operator of the Grosvenor and Mecca casino and bingo brands said revenue for Q1 of FY25 had continued the momentum from last year, with group revenue up 12% to £197.5m and growth seen across all divisions.
La Française des Jeux: Q3 revenues came in at €669m, up 14% YoY. Growth for the FY is now expected to come in at 9% while adj. EBITDA is forecast to rise by 25%. Including Kindred, revenue is predicted to rise by 16% for the year.
Kindred: Now wholly owned by La Française des Jeux, Q3 revenue was in line with expectations at £295m, while the company remains on track to reach its FY24 EBITDA guidance. Full figures will be published on October 25.
Analyst takes – more G2E reaction
Runway: After wearing down the shoe leather walking the floor at G2E last week, the team at CBRE said conversations with industry sources suggested there were still plenty of tailwinds left for Las Vegas.
The team said elements of this growth to come include convention attendance, further expansion of drive-to Vegas visitation, and international, in particular Chinese, visitation.
The team pointed out that all of these sub-segments remain below 2019 levels.
Sports of call: Further, the expansion of sports and improved utilization around events would “continue to differentiate Las Vegas as a premier entertainment destination and provide incremental visitation to the city,” they added.
More takes
MGM Resorts: The analysts at JP Morgan have cut their target on the company but have retained an overweight rating, suggesting investors are viewing the company more negatively than others due to the previous commentary around F1 bookings and the tough comps on last year.
NFL hold: The team at Macquarie estimated NFL hold for Week 6 of the season was 4%, less than half the long-term average of 9%, while hold across the total market for the week Oct 7-13 was 6%.
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Earnings calendar
Oct 23; Churchill Downs (e), Las Vegas Sands
Oct 24: Betsson, Evolution, Boyd, Churchill Downs (call), GLP
Oct 25: Kindred
Oct 29: Caesars Entertainment
Oct 30: MGM Resorts
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