The Edit: FanDuel is set to renew and expand its 13-year partnership with GeoComply under a new multi-year agreement which includes the embedding of GeoComply engineers alongside FanDuel’s product and operations teams, E+M understands.
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Finders keepers
One way or another, I’m gonna find ya: FanDuel is set to announce a new multi-year extension of its relationship with GeoComply, expanding a 13-year partnership that has accompanied the Flutter-owned operator’s growth from one regulated state to more than two dozen.
The agreement, which E+M understands could be announced as soon as later today, will see FanDuel continue using GeoComply’s location, ID-verification and fraud prevention capabilities across its product portfolio.
I’m gonna get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya: Sources close to the deal told E+M the embedding arrangement was intended to bring GeoComply’s technical expertise closer to the people using its technology, allowing the two companies to “identify opportunities, solve problems and deploy new capabilities more quickly.”
“This is about unlocking much more value than just traditional geolocation compliance,” one insider added.
FanDuel, the spokesperson said, recognizes that opportunity and wants the two to work more closely together to capitalize on it.
I will drive past your house: Geolocation has until now been treated as an unavoidable cost of doing business in state-regulated OSB markets. But sources suggest the FanDuel extension instead positions location and device data as inputs into onboarding, authentication, fraud controls and CX decisions.
The prize is reducing the number of legitimate customers incorrectly stopped or subjected to additional checks without weakening the controls applied to suspicious accounts.
And if the lights are all down: The contract forms part of a wider pattern of expanded relationships on the part of GeoComply.
DraftKings renewed in June in a deal which included dedicated engineering support and came after the launch of its combined OSB and predictions app.
In the same month, Caesars announced it was embedding GeoComply technology more deeply into its fraud, risk and operational workflows.
Hard Rock Digital’s deal in May expanded its use across onboarding, fraud prevention and compliance.
I’ll see who’s around: The timing of the FanDuel deal is notable given the expansion of prediction markets, the launch of FanDuel’s own FanDuel Predicts platform and with location controls becoming central to the federal vs. state debate.
Nevada’s Gaming Control Board asked a state court to hold Kalshi in contempt after investigators allegedly purchased prohibited contracts from within Nevada despite an injunction.
The regulator criticized Kalshi’s reliance on IP-address controls and argued that it had used a “substandard” in-house method rather than a tried-and-tested third-party provider.
Kalshi said it had asked Nevada for details of the disputed transactions so it could investigate and make any required changes.
Where I can see it all, find out who you call: GeoComply’s run of renewals suggests the largest operators are consolidating around a broader “trust infrastructure” model with their supplier no longer sitting at the edge of the transaction merely approving or rejecting a location check.
But prediction markets might have made the underlying geofencing more contentious.
Read across
Holes: InGame is reporting that Kalshi’s Michigan geofence faced a test after its reporters found the location control software arrived through an optional app update. A user in Michigan could dismiss the update and continue accessing sports contracts through an older version, despite a court order requiring Kalshi to block trading by August 12. See tomorrow’s Compliance+More.
Octoplay has officially launched in Alberta on the first day of the province’s regulated iGaming market opening, going live simultaneously with BetMGM, FanDuel, DraftKings, Betty, Rush Street Interactive, PENN, and bet365. 🇨🇦
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VICI Properties has closed a $1.75bn senior unsecured notes offering to refinance debt maturing this year. The transaction comprises $900m of notes due 2031 and $850m of notes due 2031. Proceeds will repay $1.25bn of notes reaching maturity during 2026 as planned.
Scorecard
Predictions: Prediction market notional volume reached an estimated $58bn in July, up 10% MoM, according to Stifel. US CFTC-regulated exchanges generated about $49bn, rising 21% and accounting for more than 80% of tracked activity, while global on-chain volume fell 23% to approximately $10bn. Estimated taker-only CFTC volume was $14bn, exceeding July’s regulated OSB handle of $11.3bn, although position exits inflate the comparison.
Kalshi strengthened its dominant share to 84%, against Polymarket US at 10% and Rothera at 4%. DraftKings’ DKeX contributed just $13m, while ProphetX doubled to $131m and the newly-launched Underdog exchange handled $10m.
Sports remained the engine: Kalshi’s sports and “combo” markets represented around 80% of activity. Parlays have scaled rapidly, although notional accounting overstates their handle equivalent contribution.
Crypto, meanwhile, comprised 16% of total volume, up from 12% in June, helped by growing perpetual futures activity.
US OSB: Q3 started well with a strong July as World Cup demand combined with more operator-friendly results. Deutsche Bank’s tracked states showed handle and GGR both rising about 30% YoY, with Hold recovering to 11.3% from June’s 8%. BetMGM led its operator estimates, up 46% followed by FanDuel (29%) and DraftKings at (28%), Caesars gained 6%, although Penn fell 25.5%.
Jefferies’ tally was stronger still: handle rose 26%, Hold reached 13.1% and GGR jumped 49%. FanDuel gained 40%, BetMGM 41% and DraftKings 39%.
Both teams also found that momentum survived the World Cup: recent New York handle rose 10%-13%, encouragingly ahead of the NFL season.
Jefferies noted FanDuel’s July growth was far above the 10% assumed in its third-quarter forecast, leaving substantial room to meet expectations.
Lastly, Stifel estimated July GGR up 34% with average Hold of 11.3% trending up 20bps YoY.
While only one state, the team suggested Maryland sport-level data shows non-soccer handle accelerating, “potentially suggesting cross-sell of acquired WC bettors more than offset cross-sport wagering cannibalization.”
The quality test
Better Collective must show it captured the World Cup and prediction market opportunity as effectively as its peers, while Bally’s Intralot gets to explain how much more can realistically be extracte…
Markets
Macau’s less than magnificent seven: Macau’s casino recovery has become a poor advertisement for its listed operators. All seven Macau-exposed stocks in the chart are down year-to-date, ranging from a 4% decline at Wynn Macau to 40% at SJM Holdings.
The weakness reflects less a collapse in gaming demand than doubts about the quality, profitability and durability of the recovery.
July gross gaming revenue fell 8.4% YoY to MOP20.26bn, although the comparison was distorted by last year’s 19% growth, the football World Cup and poor weather.
Early August brought a rebound: Jefferies estimated GGR for the first nine days rose 3% year-on-year and ran 12% above July’s daily rate as both mass and VIP play recovered.
Mixer: But the customer mix remains the central concern. Visitation is above 2019 levels, yet spend per visitor is materially lower. Base mass customers continue to be constrained by China’s uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, while VIP and premium-mass play has returned more strongly.
That leaves earnings unusually dependent on volatile higher-value customers and forces operators to maintain elevated promotional spending to win or retain them.
Consequently, investors are now watching margins and market share more closely than headline GGR.
Stifel expects full-year 2026 GGR growth of 2%-6%, but warns that tougher comparisons could restrict Q3 to between a 2% decline and 2% growth.
Jefferies similarly believes shareholder returns will increasingly depend on how effectively individual operators monetize premium-mass demand.
The Q2 reports reinforced those concerns. Consensus expectations proved too ambitious across much of the sector, with World Cup disruption, soft hold and increased competition weighing on results.
Melco’s Macau EBITDA fell 26%, with its market share declining to 14.7%, although hold-adjusted performance was better.
Its recovery case now rests partly on City of Dreams improvements, including the 149-suite REM hotel, alongside continued buybacks and a possible dividend resumption in 2027.
Seeking catalysts: There is therefore value in Macau stocks, which trade below historical multiples, but no obvious near-term rerating catalyst. The operating market remains healthy; the earnings conversion is less convincing.
With SJM still to report, investors need evidence that base mass, margins and returns can catch up with visitation.
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Earnings
Growth comes at a cost: Bally’s reported Q2 revenue of $792.2m, up 20.5% YoY, although acquisitions accounted for much of the increase.
Casinos & Resorts revenue rose 2% to $401m, supported by the landside openings in Baton Rouge and Marquette and growth in Chicago and the Quad Cities.
Segment adj. EBITDAR increased 3.4% to $109.6m, despite $1.6m of additional shared-services costs.
For Bally’s Intralot, see below.
Men at work: The development programme remains ambitious and capital intensive. Bally’s expects its permanent Chicago casino to open in early 2027 and is advancing retail and entertainment plans alongside the Athletics’ Las Vegas stadium.
For its $4bn Bronx project, targeted for 2030, it signed a non-binding pre-construction loan term sheet in July and an equity-investment letter of intent in August.
Reeves said nothing about the recent disruption to the construction of the permanent facility in Chicago.
The wind beneath your wings: Bally’s ended June with $4.51bn of debt and spent $502m on gaming licences during H1, principally reflecting its $500m New York licence payment. Meanwhile, regulatory reviews of its proposed Evoke acquisition are underway.
CEO Robeson Reeves said “execution is creating revenue tailwinds both domestically and internationally, generating multiple levers to improve profitability, and building a solid foundation for long-term shareholder returns.”
Bally’s Intralot will report BMO in Athens today.
Bally’s Intralot
Duty falls: Q2 revenue of €276.1m was up 3% sequentially, while adj. EBITDA fell to €84.6m from €100.2m as the UK RGD increase caused a €34m hit. Revenue growth and cost savings mitigated about 65% of that impact. UK online revenue rose 11.6% YoY. H1 revenue was €544.2m and adj. EBITDA €184.8m. B2B revenue declined 10% YoY to €128.1. Pro-forma leverage stood at 4.05x, with the proposed Evoke acquisition progressing through approvals and 12-month pro-forma EBITDA at €399.9m.
E+M PRO will release an Earnings Extra edition later today.
Earnings in brief
Genting Singapore: H1 revenue was broadly flat at S$1.20bn, as 6% growth in non-gaming revenue to S$398.8m offset a 4% decline in gaming revenue to S$804.4m. Adj. EBITDA fell 8% to S$389.8m and net profit dropped to S$156.1m, reflecting higher depreciation, lower interest income and asset-refresh works. However, Q2 Resorts World Sentosa EBITDA rose 12% YoY and 18% sequentially to S$210.8m. RWS 2.0 remains on track for 2030.
Upcoming earnings
Aug 19: Raketech
Aug 20: Better Collective (earnings)
Aug 21: Better Collective (call)
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The point about IP-address controls is interesting because IP geolocation is useful for establishing a location signal, but it becomes much more valuable when combined with other indicators. For geofencing and fraud workflows, factors like VPN/proxy detection, ASN information, and the quality of the underlying IP data can make a meaningful difference. Treating the IP result as one input rather than definitive proof seems like the more defensible approach. Services such as ipgeolocation.io provide several of these IP intelligence signals, which can be useful as one part of a broader location and risk assessment.