Like it or slump it
Las Vegas is suffering more than a seasonal slowdown
Leading indicators suggest Las Vegas might struggle to avoid an H2 downturn.
Horn of plenty: Kalshi and Polymarket achieve unicorn status.
The challengers: Denmark-based iCasino operator Omnigame.
Adjacencies: The rise of the superfan and Fanatics Fest.
Hard Rock Bet is growing – we know you know! And we want to bring in some more maestros to make beautiful music in our Sportsbook. You need to be among the very best in the industry to be considered for these roles. Are you up to it?
Las Vegas doldrums
Slump and grind: The Las Vegas market is suffering from more than a seasonal slump and will struggle to rebound this year, with a downturn running into next year a distinct possibility, according to Citizens.
Citing ADR data given to them by operators, the team said there was evidence of double-digit declines in May and June.
The team suggested that, while not too concerning as yet, there were also signs of the booking window shortening – a key indicator of visitor intent.
Minus signs: Analysis of the Las Vegas Strip GGR numbers for the last 12 months shows a broadly negative picture, with January being the only positive month since last June.
Eggs is eggs: Earlier this week, a sector initiation note from the new team at JP Morgan made the point that they remained “cautious” for the second half of the year, reflecting fears over a macro backdrop that remains “uncertain.”
In particular, the team noted worries over the potential for a slowing economy and that higher inflation might once again become a consumer headwind.
Going against convention: JP Morgan noted the leading indicators were mixed, with visitor volumes down 6% in the YTD to April or 5% ex-the effects of the 2024 Super Bowl on February’s data. The balance against that, convention visitation was up 2% YoY and up 12% when excluding the Super Bowl comparison.
However, non-convention visitation is down 8% YTD and RevPAR is down 7%.
Meanwhile, sampled room rate data shows mid-single digit declines in Q2 and high-teens to mid-20% falls in Q3.
Performance issues: In response to the darkening clouds on the horizon, the Citizens team downgraded their forecast on MGM Resorts from Outperform to Market Perform and cut their estimates for 2025 Las Vegas EBITDAR by 3%.
“After several years of depressed valuation, we are moving more into the camp that companies with no growth and 100% OpCo exposure, like MGM, will not see valuation improve back to historical levels,” the team added.
Yonkers: Separately, MGM announced it has submitted a commercial casino license to the New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) and the Gaming Facility Location Board. The $2.3bn proposal would transform the existing Empire City Casino site into a commercial casino and entertainment destination.
The go-ahead for the project awaits the final decision of the NYSGC on the three new downstate casinos.
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Pumped up
Anything you can do: One day after it was reported that Polymarket was in the process of raising $200m on a $1bn valuation, Kalshi on Wednesday said it had completed a $185m Series C funding round that valued the business at $2bn.
The ever-shy Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour took to X to pronounce that the company had raised $185m at a $2bn valuation.
The round was led by crypto-focused investor Paradigm with participation from Sequoia, Multicoin, Neo, Bond Capital and Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao. “What once felt impossible now looks inevitable,” Mansour posted.
Thiels like heaven: Kalshi’s news came a day after it was reported by Reuters that the Shayne Coplan-led Polymarket had raised $200m at a $1bn valuation in a funding round led by existing investor, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.
Who would have predicted that? The news of the fund raises caps off a remarkable year for both companies, which were barely in the public consciousness before last November’s presidential election and, with Kalshi in particular, was pre-revenue this time last year.
The WSJ reported that the new money will in part go towards building out the platform to be offered to institutional brokerages.
Voting debacle
May the farce be with you: Despite the shambles of a vote earlier this week, Mixi looks likely to finally achieve its aim of taking over PointsBet, after it launched an off-market all-cash offer pitched at the same price of A$402m ($263m) as the previous scheme effort.
The new off-market cash offer would only need approval from 50.1% of all shareholders.
A fair fight: This seems likely given that this week’s vote – which was finally tallied by share registry service Computershare after a mix-up over rival Betr’s proxy vote – saw 70.5% vote in favour.
Betr said on Thursday it was preparing the details of its own all-share off-market offer, which it hopes will also be put before the shareholders.
It said it remains “concerned that the PointsBet board is seeking to transfer control to Mixi without a genuine contest.”
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A shareholder vote that can be trusted: Star Entertainment shareholders have voted overwhelmingly in favor of the A$300m ($197m) rescue package put together by Bally’s and local investor Investment Holdings, with over 99% approving the move.
OK boomer: Maybe unintentionally eschewing players younger than 60, Joe Asher is returning to the frontline of Nevada bookmaking with a new independent firm called Boomer’s Sportsbook. “I know there is an appetite from independent casino operators for an independent sports book,” Asher told The Nevada Independent, who added the operation is named after a family pet.
Train arrive: A Nevada district court has ruled in the ‘Dragon Train’ dispute between Aristocrat and Light & Wonder that the latter will not have to provide its math on all Hold and Spin games, and Aristocrat must specifically identify the trade secrets it is seeking to protect, Jefferies has reported. The court further ordered the two parties to meet and confer on the matter.
Read across
Ol’ 55: Malta claims it is in full compliance with European Union rules after the bloc’s executive launched formal infringement proceedings over the country’s refusal to enforce foreign gambling judgments. In yesterday’s Compliance+More.
Crackdown: Also from yesterday C+M, California AG Rob Bonta is reported to be ready to issue a legal opinion that all online fantasy sports games within the state are illegal, according to multiple sources who spoke to local media.
Careers
Star Entertainment has filled out its executive bench with a bevy of new appointments, including Helen Galloway as the new independent chair of The Star Sydney and Jennifer Cronin as the new interim CEO at The Star Gold Coast. Games Global CFO Tim Mickley has resigned after more than four years in the role. DigiPlus has promoted Tommy Hu to CEO and also appointed Rick Li as chief digital officer. White Label Casinos CEO Phil Pearson has announced via LinkedIn that he will be stepping down and taking a sabbatical.
Head of Legal – Europe
Head of Customer Support – Philippines
Brand Manager – Dubai
The challengers – Omnigame
iCasino needs a rethink: In a sector dominated by acquisition-led strategies and aggressive bonus wars, Danish operator Omnigame is quietly proving there’s a viable alternative for challenger brands in the iCasino space.
CEO Peter Weinreich, a 20-year industry veteran, is steering the company on a product-first path, eschewing volume and commodified content in favor of high-quality, sticky games and long-term player value.
“In high-growth industries, the default playbook is to lead with marketing and promotions,” Weinreich says.
“But when markets mature and regulation tightens, that model starts to break down. Then you’re left with your product – and, for many, that’s where the problem starts.
Rethinking the value chain: Weinreich points to an industrywide failure to invest in distinctive product experiences. Operators rely heavily on aggregators to fill out their lobbies, creating a homogeneous offering where brand loyalty is easily undermined by bonus chasing.
“Everyone ends up with the same content,” he says. “And if your customers can get a new bonus elsewhere, what’s keeping them with you?”
Omnigame’s answer: Fewer games, better games and a clear sense of ownership over the experience. The company operates with just 35 titles – no live casino, no sportsbook – and yet is outperforming on key customer metrics:
LTV well above industry norms, despite lower ARPU.
Bonus cost below 10% of GGTR, compared to a ~30% industry average.
Cohort growth doubling between one and 12 months.
Challenging the war chest model: With promotional levers increasingly restricted, especially in tightly regulated markets like Denmark, many operators turn to brand marketing as their next battleground. But Weinreich is skeptical.
“You can’t compete forever just by outspending,” says Weinreich. “Eventually, that stops working. You need to differentiate in what you offer.”
Strategic expansion through product: Omnigame is now profitable in Denmark and planning carefully calibrated expansion. A strategic partnership with Kaizen Gaming, where Omnigame supplies exclusive content, marks its first major move beyond its home market.
“Kaizen’s sportsbook is best-in-class, and they’re laser-focused on making their casino product just as good. That’s why we aligned.”
Next steps include B2C moves into other Nordic markets, where customer familiarity and localisation still offer an edge.
The lesson: Challenger brands don’t need to replicate the scale of the tier-ones to succeed. But they do need to offer something different – and meaningful.
“You don’t have to be unique in every aspect of the business,” says Weinreich. “But in the areas you control, you should aim to be the best.”
Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments' Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem.
Adjacencies – the superfan
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s a cross-sell opportunity: If the rise of the superfan is an actual investment theme and not just an excuse for Live Nation to gouge consumers with extortionate ticket prices, then Fanatics should be well-placed.
What is a high roller? Earlier this month, Bernstein & Co said that superfans take different forms across live experiences, music, OSB and iGaming.
The analysts added that superfans tend to be high-earners, are less sensitive to price increases and show resilient spending habits during recessions.
Getting Festive: Primed to take advantage from this trend is Fanatics, which just last weekend unleashed the second iteration of Fanatics Fest at the Javits Center at Hudson Yards in New York.
The event attracted more than 100,000 people over the three days, which saw appearances by more than 400 sports stars and celebrities including the likes of Tom Brady, LeBron James and Jay-Z.
Going to make you sweat: Not that Fanatics expected to be able to truly sweat its apparel, collectibles and OSB and iCasino assets at the Fest. In a Sportico article ahead of the event, Fanatics Events CEO Lance Fensterman said he expected the three days to breakeven.
“If we create amazing experiences for fans, we’ll sort out the rest,” Fensterman told Sportico. “The business will make sense.”
It’s a hard-knock life: Indeed, founder Michael Rubin told Boardroom that Fanatics Fest was the “hardest thing I do each year by a mile… organizing hundreds of athletes, celebrities, and artists, a hundred thousand-plus fans, all these sports properties together.”
Octoplay's Jackpot Hunt has gotten so big that we couldn't fit it in our banner.
Connections
Octoplay’s online casino games are now live on BetMGM in New Jersey, marking the company’s entry into the US market. It will join the roster alongside Light & Wonder’s ‘The Wizard of Oz – Follow the Yellow Brick Road’ slot game, which will also be available in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ontario.
Greentube has signed a new content partnership with Caesars Entertainment for Pennsylvania. Pragmatic Solutions has integrated Xtremepush’s PAM offering into its system.
EveryMatrix delivers iGaming software, solutions, content and services for casino, sports betting, payments, and affiliate/agent management to 300+ global Tier-1 operators and newer brands. The platform is modular, scalable, and compliant, allowing operators to choose the optimal solution depending on their needs.
EveryMatrix empowers clients to unleash bold ideas and deliver outstanding player experiences in regulated markets.
Upcoming earnings
Jul 17: Evolution
Jul 18: Betsson
Jul 23: Kambi, Las Vegas Sands, Churchill Downs
Jul 29: BetMGM, Red Rock Resorts
Jul 30: MGM Resorts
Is that a new user? Or is it a bonus hunter opening their 56th account on an iPhone 11…
And over there—is that a player in Moscow, Kansas? Or is it a hyper-growth fraud ring in Moscow, Russia teleporting via WiFi injection so they can try to launder money through an app?
What about that Sunday afternoon chargeback (again) being filed from that same sofa (again)?
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There's a lot that goes into it I commented on your post.
It's down, but travel overall is down in America. A big piece for Vegas is Canadian travelers. Numbers I've seen show about a 4% decline in people. If it is Canadian travelers, you can count on that going back up once the NHL season begins in October. There’s less international travel overall, you can tell, but Americans are also not traveling internationally as much, which should help balance it.
Vegas will have to stop charging more to make up the difference. If they actually lower prices and offer more promotions (we are starting to see this now), they could increase profit and traffic.