‘F*** the casinos’
Novig CEO says gaming operators are behind the consumer curve
Fortinsky says attempts to stifle federally regulated trading will fail.
Meanwhile, Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a $40bn valuation.
Coitus interruptus: Entain plans a phased withdrawal from Entain CEE.
DraftKings determined not to cede predictions ground, reports Citizens.
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Rebel yell
Welcome to the jungle: In attempting to stifle federally regulated sports event trading, the US gaming industry is setting itself against a consumer that is far more willing to embrace innovative trading opportunities, according to Jacob Fortinsky, CEO at Novig.
Speaking to Earnings+More, Fortinsky said it was “high time for sports to be treated as a legitimate asset class that can be traded the same way crypto or options are traded.”
“And I think there’s been this shift in consumer behavior over the last decade, where sports bettors are increasingly viewing these markets as a financial product,” he added.
We got fun and games: Hammering home the contested message that prediction markets are fairer than regular sportsbooks, Fortinsky noted that sports betting is the “one industry that regularly bans power users.”
“When you unshackle the market, you allow a two-sided marketplace to thrive and you see this explosion of volume, and it’s similar to the early days of Uber and Lyft.”
“You’re 10 times more likely to win on the whole on a platform like Novig compared to a traditional sportsbook. And so I think the only people who lose are the casinos, basically.”
“And fuck the casinos,” he added for emphasis.
Money is the anthem of success: Back in February, Novig announced a $75m Series B funding round, led by Pantera Capital with the participation of Multicoin, Makers Fund and others alongside, taking its total raised past $105m since launch in late 2024.
But Fortinsky said the money raised is a “lagging indicator” of the company’s success.
“The real success is the traction of the platform,” he added.
You think that’s big? Impressive as that is, it is still way behind the money raised to date by Kalshi, which is reportedly seeking a new raise that would value the business at $40bn (see below). “Raising $75m, it is really still a small fraction of what we’re going up against,” Fortinsky said.
But, he added, Novig is used to “competing with people with hundreds of millions or billions on their balance sheet.”
I’ve been on a journey: Novig started its journey as a betting exchange seeking out regulated market opportunities before pivoting to a sports sweepstakes model. But Fortinsky insisted the move into prediction markets was the “vision from day one.”
“Ultimately, the core vision of the company has not shifted,” he said. “Truthfully, I think this is exactly how I envisioned the market playing out.”
While the prediction markets have “accelerated a little faster than I would have expected,” he insisted Novig has been “building for this world since day one.”
Nothing can stop us now: Pressed on whether any regulator or court could now rein the sector in, he didn’t hesitate to push back. “It’s here to stay,” he said, characterizing the opposition as narrow and self-interested.
“It’s a straightforward interpretation of the law and the federal government has a far more legitimate case than the states, which are just concerned about losing tax revenue,” he added.
A survey released this week from the Coalition for Prediction Markets found bipartisan support among the public for Federal oversight over state-by-state control.
In the public interest: The conviction that consumer adoption has created facts on the ground no agency can undo is the same current running beneath Kalshi’s reported flotation talks, and Fortinsky sees the listing question in generational terms rather than tactical ones.
“The generational companies, the category-defining companies should be public so that the public can get a piece of the next generation of retail finance and of sports trading,” he said.
But deeper private liquidity means “there isn’t the same impetus or need to go public as there once was.”
Meta verse: He is similarly unbothered by the prospect of a land grab from the technology platforms, including Meta’s reported interest this week. “It’s just inevitable that this is the next wave of retail trading,” he said. “It starts with sports. They are the tip of the iceberg.”
Welcome mat: Also this week, Novig announced it has hired Eliezer Mishory, an ex-DOGE staffer and former Kalshi official, as its new chief regulatory and legal affairs officer.
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Kalshi at $40bn
At the double, double: Kalshi is reported to be talking to its advisor about a new funding round that would value the company at $40bn, near enough doubling the $22bn mark it hit with its last raise just three months ago.
According to the Financial Times, the company could achieve the new round in Q3.
That earlier $1bn Series F closed only last month, led by Coatue and with the backing of Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and Morgan Stanley.
Climbing: The trajectory is steep. Kalshi was worth around $5bn in October 2025 and $11bn by December, implying an eightfold rise iin less than 12 months. A successful raise would widen its lead over rival Polymarket, last reported to be seeking funding at a $15bn valuation.
The raise comes as Kalshi’s trading volumes have exploded, with InGame reporting it has seen $17bn traded in the first two weeks of the World Cup.
+More predictions
Binary is back: Cboe Global Markets has launched Cboe Predicts, a new prediction markets suite that initially focuses on the performance of the S&P 500 through contracts tied to the Mini-SPX (XSP) index. The initiative marks the exchange operator’s formal entry into the prediction markets sector.
+More
Maine chance: Caesars Entertainment has expanded its partnership with Maine’s Wabanaki Nations, securing access to the state’s future iCasino market. Amended agreements with the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, Mi’kmaq Nation and Penobscot Nation will allow Caesars to launch its Caesars Palace, Horseshoe and Caesars Sportsbook iCasino offerings.
Penn Entertainment has officially opened the $360m Hollywood Casino and Hotel Aurora in Illinois, replacing its long-running riverboat casino with a new land-based entertainment destination. The property features a 226-room hotel, more than 1,200 gaming positions and a retail sportsbook.
Read across
The Maginot line: Nine European gambling regulators have issued a rare joint declaration warning consumers, sports organizations and operators about the risks posed by prediction markets during the World Cup, signaling increased scrutiny of the rapidly growing sector. From Tuesday’s Compliance+More.
How could you pull the plug and leave me flatline? A new joint report from the Dutch gambling authority, Kansspelautoriteit, and the country’s Ministry of Finance shows the tax take from online gambling is flatlining, in a further sign that the regulated market is failing. From Thursday’s C+M.
+More careers
Andrew Ashenden has joined cricket odds and data supplier Decimal Data as the new CEO. Ashenden was previously chief betting officer at Stats Perform. Ryan Collinge is leaving his role as SVP at GiG Software after two-and-a-half years. Jeff Sherman has left SuperBook and has been hired as senior risk manager at Circa Sports. Digitain has appointed Dario Jurčić as CCO.
Lifecycle Marketing Manager – Montreal
Director of CRM – Valencia
iGaming Sales Lead – UK
Get out clauses
Coitus interruptus: Entain confirmed yesterday the rumor that it was planning a phased withdrawal from the Entain CEE business, which until this time last year it was saying it wanted to buy outright.
Entain is selling an initial 20% of Entain CEE to partner EMMA Capital for around €425m, with €395m being paid on completion, plus a further payment in early 2027 tied to FY26 performance.
The deal values the venture at €2.1bn, or roughly 10x EBITDA, which is above the £1.8bn implied by the put liability Entain carried at the end of 2025.
Entain confirmed the money raised would go towards paying down part of its £3.6bn debt, saving Entain ~£20m in annualized interest payments.
Down the pecking order: Stella David, Entain CEO, said the deal was a “decisive first step” toward a full exit, but the company did not go so far as to state how much it would hope to raise from its remaining stub.
Upon completion, Entain’s stake in the CEE business will fall to 47.5% from 67.5%.
It remains the largest shareholder and maintains that it continues to evaluate all options to exit its residual shareholding.
But it would be a huge surprise if EMMA Capital weren’t the eventual buyer.
The deal would also see the exit of the Juroszek family, the sellers of the Polish STS concern, over the course of the next three years. The Juroszeks control 10% of Entain CEE.
There was also updated guidance to reflect the change, and while the online NGR growth guidance for 2026 remains at 5.7%, margin will fall to 21-22% from 23-24%.
Entain said it “remains comfortable” with its FY26 group underlying EBITDA guide.
Entain CEE will no longer be reported separately, though Entain will continue to recognize CEE profits and dividends in its figures.
Explain this to me like I’m a two-year-old: Analysts were supportive. JP Morgan said Entain was “simplifying the story and improving balance-sheet flexibility,” while BNP Paribas said the company had achieved an “attractive valuation.”
Puts+takes
Spending spree: DraftKings has no intention to cede ground in the prediction markets land-grab, according to the team at Citizens, who reported back from meeting with the company’s management this week.
Citizens noted that CEO Jason Robins readily admits DraftKings is currently trailing market leader Kalshi.
But they added that the plan over the next 12 months is to outspend all comers to become the dominant acquirer of sports customers, funded by cash thrown off elsewhere in the business.
Earlier this week, Citizens issued a note that suggested DraftKings’ prediction markets business could one day be worth roughly as much as the entire company. In this update, the team reported that DraftKings is steering towards 2 million to 3 million prediction market customers in 2026, with share already at mid-single digits in June.
Uphill from here: The analysts conceded, however, that there may be no material net revenue this year, with the J-curve being “fairly steep.”
Citizens has duly trimmed its Q226 EBITDA estimate to roughly $126m and its full-year figure to $715m, below the $800m guidance midpoint.
Jockeying for position: Citizens reiterated the message that market making is held up as the genuine differentiator. The team noted nearly $5bn has been sunk into trading infrastructure since DraftKings floated and said its parlay expertise was something that non-gambling exchanges cannot easily replicate.
But another interesting aside from Citizens is that Robins is reportedly spending more time on iCasino than prediction markets in order to “ensure the strategy is properly positioned.”
There is a tacit admission that the core casino business, where net revenue growth slowed to 9% in Q1 from 20% in 2025, has drifted.
A pivot back towards third-party slots and away from table games is now underway.
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Connections
EveryMatrix has carved out a dedicated lottery division to build digital-first products for the sector, with Nikolina Gabelica taking on the role of MD of the new unit. Brightstar Lottery‘s subsidiary Brightstar Global Solutions has signed a five-year extension with the Oregon Lottery running to May 2031.
Aristocrat has debuted its NFL Super Grand Champions slot in North America, with launch events at Pechanga in California and WinStar in Oklahoma, and wider US rollout to follow as it joins the NFL slots franchise. Rank’s Mecca Bingo has launched an exclusive Pragmatic Play title, Mecca Big Bass Double Dab. Gaming Corps has signed a distribution deal with Microgame to reach operators on the Italian platform provider’s network.
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On the betting tech side, three Brazilian iGaming brands under OIG Gaming – 7Games, Betão and R7 – have picked FIRST.bet as their sportsbook partner. Kambi has extended its multi-year supply deal with Latin American operator BetWarrior. Fast Track will provide its customer engagement platform to Meridianbet‘s brands across Europe, Africa and South America.
The prediction market push continues on several fronts. ADI Predictstreet will integrate its solution into BetConstruct‘s platform, and separately powers a free-to-play prediction product for DAZN. Polymarket, meanwhile, has become the Bundesliga‘s official US prediction market partner from the 2026-27 season, letting US customers trade contracts tied to matches. The deal was struck through the league’s US rights representative, Relevent, and is a notable step in the platform’s move toward mainstream sports tie-ups.
Finally, BetMGM has signed a multi-year extension of its Major League Baseball sponsorship, retaining its status as the league’s gaming and sports-betting partner alongside its exclusive casino and resort role, a relationship dating back to 2018.
Upcoming earnings
Jul 17: Evolution, Betsson
Jul 21: Hacksaw Gaming
Jul 22: Kambi
Jul 29: Churchill Downs (earnings)
Jul 30: Churchill Downs (call)
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