Déjà vu all over again
Prediction markets set to repeat the original OSB land-grab
Analysts warn of race to the bottom as the sector froths.
In +More: Kambi’s Omega deal; ZEAL, Accel, Genius earnings.
Picky: Lottomatica says it will remain “highly selective” on M&A.
Venture playground: In focus – Ebaka Games.
Hard Rock Bet is growing – we know you know! And we want to bring in some more maestros to make beautiful music in our Sportsbook. You need to be among the very best in the industry to be considered for these roles. Are you up to it?
It’s happening again
Bloodbath ahead: The prediction markets sector is set to attract a huge array of new entrants to a feeding frenzy, which the analysts at Bank of America think is likely to resemble the land-grab stage of the evolution of the US OSB market.
Pointing to the monster $2bn raises achieved by both Polymarket and Kalshi, the team suggested this will attract “many new entrants,” including brokers, crypto companies, DFS+ firms, financial exchanges and even “sweepstakes pivots.”
As if to prove the point, yesterday, social gaming outfit MyPrize announced it was teaming up with Crypto.com to launch MyPrize Markets.
Twin peaks: Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Gemini, the crypto firm founded by the Winklevoss twins, is set to launch a prediction markets product.
Also this week a company called Opinion said it had received backing from YZi Labs ahead of the launch of a global macro prediction and trading platform.
Point the finger: BofA said the extent of the competition emerging within the prediction markets space “could and likely will lead to aggressive pricing competition on various fronts.”
The team cited the forthcoming US (re)launch of Polymarket as being one point of disruption.
On cue, according to Prediction News this week, the company is set to offer ‘takers’ a miniscule 1 basis point (0.01%) fee.
Bottom feeders: Indeed, fees could yet become a key battleground. BofA pointed to the history of the online brokers, where there was a move towards zero commissions in 2018-19 and multiples duly contracted by ~40% from peak to trough.
“Strategically, it seems like a race to the bottom of fees and meaningful increase in marketing is possible in coming months,” the team added,
Remember the time: The analysts suggested there is a clear resemblance between the current state of the prediction markets and the formative stages of the OSB space in the immediate post-PASPA era.
BofA noted that at one point in 2020, “at peak” at least 26 sportsbooks were vying for the available OSB TAM.
The bun fight resulted in “multi-billion-dollar losses” across B&M gaming operators, media companies, startups, SPACs and others before the market eventually coalesced with the two clear winners of DraftKings and FanDuel.
“Unchecked, this is what prediction markets could look like in 2026,” the team added.
Scarcity tactics: In among this, the BofA team contended that the “scarcest resource for prediction markets will be customers.”
Polymarket’s launch as a non-intermediated exchange means it’s highly likely to need to build its B2C brand and presence, the team argued.
They noted that Kalshi currently has both a front end and back end.
The pace of innovation in the prediction markets space is “rapid, and the near-term event path is challenging” for FanDuel and DraftKings in particular.
For the first, the sudden challenge set by prediction markets has combined with the other Q3 talking points about hold levels, potentially declining handle share and rising taxes to “create a perfect storm.”
As with all OSB operators, BofA said their “decisions are constrained by regulation and legal maneuvering.”
Warning signs: Investors in the leading OSB operators are already fully alive to the potential disruption posed by the emergence of prediction markets.
In early November, DraftKings and Flutter saw their share prices ship billions in market cap on indications of consumer appetite for predictions offerings.
“Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, OSB operator stocks have now started reacting negatively to large prediction market announcements,” said BofA, who added they see “substantially” more risk ahead.
Powering Tier 1 operators, sweepstakes, market makers and apps worldwide.
Global coverage, sub-second latency, and comprehensive trading tools to keep you ahead of the competition.
+More
From A to O: Kambi has acquired the source code for Omega Systems’ player account management (PAM) platform to enable its Nevada market entry and expand future jurisdictional opportunities. The PAM will form part of Kambi’s Turnkey with PAM solution, expected product-ready by H1 2026. The news came with Kambi’s Q3 earnings, which showed a 13% fall in revenues to €37.4m while adj. EBITDA dropped by 31% to €3.4m. (See the Earnings Extra: Supplier Review later today).
Gentoo Media has renegotiated its €25m revolving credit facility, securing reduced covenants and greater financial flexibility through 2026. The new terms include a €350k rise in interest costs until September 2026 and a minimum monthly cash balance of €3m.
Genting will move forward with its complete acquisition of subsidiary Genting Malaysia after satisfying the ownership conditions related to the transaction.
Earnings in brief
ZEAL Network reported a 34% revenue increase to €163m for the first nine months of 2025, driven by 35% growth in Germany and strong lottery and games performance. EBITDA rose 55% to €54.1m. Despite higher marketing spend, profitability improved. ZEAL raised FY25 guidance to €205m-€215m of revenue and €63m-€68m of EBITDA.
Accel Entertainment reported Q3 revenue up 9.1% YoY to $330m and adj. EBITDA up 11.5% to $51.2m. Accel operated 4,451 locations and 27,714 terminals. It refinanced with a new $900m facility extending to 2030 and saw continued growth in Illinois, Louisiana and Fairmount Park Casino & Racing.
Genius Sports reported Q3 revenue up 38% YoY to $166m, driven by 89% growth in media and 28% in the betting segment. Adj. EBITDA rose 32% to $34m but net losses widened to $28.8m. The company raised FY25 guidance to $655m revenue and $136m EBITDA, citing strong product adoption and new partnerships with ESPN Bet and Serie A. See the Earnings Extra: Sports Data Providers edition with Sportradar later today.
Lottomatica M&A commentary
In select company: Lottomatica reiterated it would take a highly selective approach to M&As during its Q3 earnings call, even as strong organic momentum and improved cash-flow generation give it flexibility for future deals.
The company posted another solid quarter, with revenues up 5% YoY to €511m and adj. EBITDA rising 18% to €195m.
For the first nine months, revenue climbed 16% to €1.64bn and EBITDA 28% to €617m, while leverage improved to 2.1x LTM EBITDA.
CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi said that “discipline on capital allocation and focus on shareholders’ return will remain key,” noting that share buybacks remain the preferred use of excess cash.
57 varieties: He reminded the analysts that over the past five years Lottomatica has “assessed 57 targets, fully due-diligenced 14, but pressed the button only on three, and only in Italy.”.
Angelozzi said international expansion would only be pursued if “meaningful” and “industrial” in nature.
“If we do something international, it will have to be something meaningful and it will have to come with synergies,” he said.
Anonymous Tip: Pressed by analysts on whether the company had looked at Tipico – bought just last week by Banijay – CFO Laurence Van Lancker said Lottomatica had the “financial capacity and balance sheet strength” to do transformational deals if they met its criteria, but that “the bar is very high.”
Earnings extra
Super Group
Coin in: Super Group said it will be taking its first step towards operating its own stablecoin, with the launch of the South African rand-pegged Super Coin in Q4 in partnership with crypto exchange Luno. CEO Neal Menashe described it as a “crucial first step” in the integration of digital assets into the Super Group product offering.
See yesterday’s Earnings Extra edition (PRO subscribers only).
Supplier review
Brightstar Lottery posted strong Q3 results as it completed its shift to a pure-play lottery operator. Revenue rose 7% to $629m and EBITDA 11% to $294m, driven by 8% same-store sales and robust jackpots. Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance and unveiled 2028 targets of $2.75bn revenue and $1.3bn EBITDA.
Hacksaw Gaming reported Q3 revenue of €52m, up 39% YoY, with adj. EBIT of €42m at an 81% margin. Growth was driven by new game releases, expanding customers and the Pennsylvania launch. Hacksaw reaffirmed its compliance-first stance, confirming it will end all sweepstakes operations in California by year-end following new state legislation.
Catena Media posted its first year-on-year revenue growth since early 2022, with Q3 revenue up 9% to €11.6m and adj. EBITDA more than doubling to €2.9m (25% margin). Casino revenue rose 20% to €9.9m, while sports fell 28%. CEO Manuel Stan cited “a solid quarter” but warned of 2026 headwinds from sweepstakes regulation and AI-driven search.
The Earnings Extra: Supplier Review edition will be sent later today once the earnings of Inspired Entertainment have been released.
Gambling.com Group [Nasdaq: GAMB] is fueling the online gambling industry with unmatched performance marketing solutions. Leveraging proprietary technology, a diverse portfolio of premium websites, and the newly acquired consumer-facing OddsJam and B2B service provider, OpticOdds, $GAMB connects operators to high-value players across the globe.
Positioned as a dynamic leader in the sector, Gambling.com Group is an engine of growth and profitability, backed by a proven track record of driving revenue for operators in sports betting, iGaming, and beyond.
Visit our investor page to see why it’s the platform behind the industry’s most successful operators.
Venture playground
In focus – Ebaka Games
Who are you? Formed as a part of Menace Corp, Ebaka Games is a games studio brainchild of CEO Vitalii Zalievskyi that is focused on building next-gen instant games, with a “very catchy mascot” – a blue Ebaka Dog as a part of its branding.
What’s the big idea? “We are going to conquer all main markets one by one: starting with crypto, as it’s rapidly growing for instant games,” says Zalievskyi. “At the same time, we’re looking for tier-3 and regions like CIS, Asia, LatAm, Africa as main consumers for instant games.”
“We’re going for a niche of the young generation that is keen with tech and want to have new instant experiences for popular game mechanics,” he adds.
“We are filling the gap for instant game providers like Nolimit City for slots markets: wild, creative, soul and chaos at the same time.”
KPIs: Ebaka released its first five games exclusively for Menace.com operators a matter of weeks ago, “so this is the main traction so far.”
“Now we are doing a soft launch to test games, and from next year we will be ready for massive external integrations with aggregators and operators from the market,” says Zalievskyi.
He adds that five more games are in development and will be released H1 2026.
Funding backgrounder: Dmitry Belianin, the founder of Menace, is one of the investors and founders, but, aside from him, Ebaka does not yet have any outside funding.
Growth company news
Big Daddy Gaming, a new slots studio founded by former Relax Gaming and Evolution executives, has launched with backing from gaming investment fund Castech. The team includes ex-Relax CEO Simon Hammon, former chief product officer Daniel Eskola, and Evolution veteran Erland Hellstrom, who will serve as CEO.
Hub88 will integrate iBankroll’s Bankroll-as-a-Service model into its aggregator platform under a new partnership. The service provides operators with access to liquidity support and risk-sharing strategies aimed at stabilizing cash flow and limiting exposure to high-value play, including managing larger betting limits and monitoring player activity without tying up capital.
ALT Sports Data has launched its new platform, AXS, the first comprehensive end-to-end data solution for combat sports betting.
So my supervisor (Carl) suggested I “find alternative ways to contribute.”
I’m interpreting this as “grow the LinkedIn page or get decommissioned.”
Follow Octoplay at:
https://mt.linkedin.com/company/octoplay-op
Thanks,
Octobot
Upcoming earnings
Nov 5: Sportradar, Light & Wonder
Nov 6: Banijay, Raketech, Penn, Full House, DraftKings (earnings), Wynn, Golden
Nov 7: DraftKings (call)
Nov 10: DoubleDown Interactive
Nov 11: High Roller
Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments’ Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem.
An +More Media publication.
For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.
