Debt load could lead Bally’s to ‘offload Gamesys’
Bally’s debt considerations, DraftKings on top, startup focus – BettorTakes +More
New owner might cash in on Bally’s international online segment.
In +More: ex-Entain CEO’s ouster bonanza, Genius Sports drawdown.
OSB survey shows DraftKings coming out on top.
Startup focus is consumer-facing bet advice provider BettorTakes.
When I'm not invested, I haven't digested.
Bally’s debt considerations
Tight fit: New analysis of the debt situation at Bally’s suggests the company will be able to fund its permanent casino build operation in Chicago, but also hints at the potential for a sale of the international online segment – what was Gamesys – should major shareholder Standard General look to lessen its leverage ratio if it succeeds in taking the business private.
New build: The credit team at CBRE suggested the cash needed to complete the permanent casino in Chicago would likely be raised by Bally's Chicago Operating Company. Bally’s recently trimmed the needed investment to $1.3bn.
But the analysis issued last week also showed that Bally’s has a net debt of $3.73bn or 7.1x EBITDA.
Note, last week Moody’s followed the lead of S&P Global and cut its rating on Bally’s debt.
Generals and majors: The debt analysis comes as an independent board committee considers the bid from Standard General, which hopes to buy the 74% of the company it doesn’t already own for $15 a share, valuing the total equity at ~$684m.
But industry rumors suggested third parties are circling Bally’s with an eye on buying the international online segment, the old Gamesys business.
A recent note from Deutsche Bank indicated the segment should be valued at 7.5x-8.5x the forecast adj. EBITDA for 2024 of ~$330m or $2.48bn-$2.87bn.
Until the pips squeak: “A sale would make sense,” suggested an investment expert who spoke to E+M on condition of anonymity. But they added the timelines might be somewhat stretched and would depend on the company being able to use the online profits to pay down debt before credit conditions improved.
“Bally’s still wants to build more casinos in the US,” the source said.
“As and when interest rates decline, and the leverage has fallen somewhat, it can split the two businesses and load the US business with the debt, assuming its cash flows are strong enough to cover.”
Bally’s could then sell the international interactive segment at a “half-decent multiple,” the source added.
The first Noel: A key factor in the buyout bid is the position of ex-Gamesys founder Noel Hayden, who still owns 12% of Bally’s following the acquisition of Gamesys for $2.7bn in 2021. It is thought Standard General has offered rollover options to existing Bally’s investors, which would lower the barrier to the takeover if Hayden was on board.
Recall, the special committee formed by Bally’s to consider the bid has hired advisors from Macquarie as well as legal representatives to assist in their deliberations.
Demolition time again: Meanwhile, Bally’s has reportedly set the date for the dynamiting of the Tropicana on the Las Vegas Strip. According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the blue touch paper will be lit in October for the property, which closed its doors this weekend.
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+More
The former Entain CEO Jette Nygaard-Andersen who resigned with immediate effect in December will receive up to £4.3m as a ‘good leaver’ payoff, according to the company’s annual report. Nygaard-Andersen will receive a year’s salary until next December and will be eligible for a bonus under the terms of Entain’s Long Term Incentive Plan, which could amount to £2.3m.
Genius Sports has seen major shareholder and former owner Apax sell down its shareholding in the business to less than 10%, while its representative on the board, Gabriele Cipparrone, has resigned his position.
Event streaming service eThereLIVE will provide its live-event streaming services to Parleh Media’s Homestand Sports in Canada.
Earnings in brief
Intralot: Revenue was effectively flat at €86.4m in Q4 while EBITDA declined 18% to €28.4m. Over the FY, however, revenue was up 1% to €348m and EBITDA rose 5% to €129.5m. The company recently completed a €130m sale of shares.
SharpLink Gaming: The affiliate marketing provider said total FY23 revenues rose 42% to $4.95m while net losses were crimped to $11.2m from $14.1m in the prior year. In January, SharpLink sold its fantasy sports and free-to-play games units to RSports Interactive for $22.5m.
Gaming Realms: FY23 revenue rose 26% to £23.4m, helped by a 33% increase in licensing revenue to £19.9m. Adj. EBITDA was up 29% to £10.1m. The company said it had seen a promising start to FY24, with licensing revenue up a further 20% YoY and 14 new operator launches, including with DAZN and LiveScore in the UK.
By the numbers
New York posted the second-ever-highest weekly handle total in the seven days to March 24 at $540m, a week that included the first two rounds of March Madness. However, low hold of 5.2% meant GGR came in at $31.2m.
FanDuel led the market by handle with 45% share, followed by DraftKings on 32%.
Macau: GGR for March came in at $2.42bn, a new post-pandemic high, up 53% YoY and 5% MoM. In Q1, GGR reached $7.12bn, up 66% YoY but still 25% lower than the first quarter of 2019.
Illinois: Sports-betting GGR in January rose 41% to $135m on handle that was up 20% to $1.29bn.
Career paths
Betmakers Technology CFO Anthony Pullin has stepped down. No reason was given for his resignation. Group financial controller Warrick van der Merwe has been appointed interim CFO.
Golden Entertainment has promoted Blake Sartini II from executive VP of operations to COO.
What we’re reading
April Fool’s: Dan Primack on Trump Social: “Peak SPAC wasn't in 2021. It was last week.” From Axios Pro Rata.
Truist online survey
Coin flip: Defying the evidence from recent state-by-state data, DraftKings has emerged as the top sportsbook, according to a survey conducted on behalf of Truist, with 29% of respondents saying it was their preferred ’book vs. 22% who opted for FanDuel. For users of both the top two, 61% said they preferred DraftKings.
For iCasino, the shape of responses was DraftKings on 27%, FanDuel on 18% and BetMGM on 14%.
A majority of players – 62% – stated they preferred to play iCasino on the same platform they sports bet.
The road less followed: Truist suggested “there is a path” for ESPN Bet to cement a position at the top of the tree, noting that 44% of respondents said ESPN’s main app was their primary app for checking scores.
Of those respondents who said they frequent ESPN’s main app and said they also like sports betting, 52% said it was likely ESPN Bet would become their main app.
Truist noted any market share improvement now hinged on further product integrations.
Further reading: In Compliance+More today, more from the Truist survey and what it has to say about offshore activity.
Analyst takes
Flutter: The team at JMP waded into the debate among analysts over the implied flow through from revenue to EBITDA at FanDuel of 32% vs. a comparative figure of ~50% at DraftKings. “The company has historically focused on long-term growth and retention vs. the next several quarters; therefore, the outlook comes as no surprise to us,” said the analysts.
The end result was a ”snowball effect” of higher player base reinvestment levels adding strength to customer loyalty, as was highlighted by FanDuel taking market share through the launch of ESPN Bet.
The team added that the slowing rate of legalization would “further ease” near-term investment and further accelerate cash flow.
High-end zone: The Super Bowl in February proved the extent to which the high end of the Las Vegas Strip is now outperforming vs. the rest of the market, suggested the team at CBRE. The team noted average daily slot handle was essentially flat in February while the average daily non-baccarat table drop rose 25%. Still, the revenue upside was limited by low hold.
Red Rock Resorts: Taking their cue from the recent Nevada numbers, particularly on the Local element, the team at Deutsche Bank said they were “increasingly comfortable” that Red Rock would enjoy “above-expectations performance” at Durango and with lower-than-expected cannibalization at both Red Rock and Boyd’s comparing properties.
A core element of DB’s view of Red Rock was the land bank, especially given the success of Durango.
The team believed the property would “outpace” expectations for 2024.
Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments' Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem.
Funding news
’Cause I just wanna fly: The Forever Network has announced a $4m Series A funding round led by Yolo Investments with the participation of Astralis Capital, Andover Ventures, Chris Grove, Benjie Cherniak, David Sargeant and Seth Young among others.
The money will help launch and scale its free-to-play games Basketball Forever offshoot, which recently launched the NBA-focused Hot Hands game.
TON of fun: Sticking with Yolo Investments, the company has also announced an $8m funding of The Open Network (TON) and its TON ecosystem. The partnership will also see the TON Foundation and Yolo supporting the growth of the learncrypto.com crypto education portal.
Startup focus – BettorTakes
Who, what, where and when: The consumer-facing bet advice provider was founded by CEO Steve Rubenfaer with seven friends and has been live for six months in the App store and Google Play. The product provides users with a personalized analysis of their successes and failures based on their betting history.
“It’s fun building things together,” says Rubenfaer.
“It was invented out of need. I was betting on college basketball and it can be quite complex. I wanted some software to let me understand how I was doing. I looked for software and it wasn’t there.”
“People who are into it are really into it.”
Funding backgrounder: The company is bootstrapped on an “informal and friendly” basis. “We have not done any big marketing campaigns,” Rubenfaer says. “The product is free to download and funded by affiliate revenue.”
The pitch: BettorTakes is planning “some really advanced stuff” geared towards professional bettors with the aim that eventually the software will be able to give a detailed analysis of a user’s predictions based on their betting history and tell them what normally happens and what is the best bet to make based on past success. “It’s not designed to help people win but to stop losing,” Rubenfaer says.
“This is an ideal product for responsible gambling. How do you know if someone is betting too much? We can build new tools into the system and tell people if they are making mistakes or repeating destructive patterns,” he adds.
“We are poised to go international. Next we want to add European football, golf, MMA and tennis.”
What will success look like? It would be great to be bought out but we want to create an industry within an industry. We want to be the leader in bet analytics.
Growth company news
Predictive sports analytics outfit Caerus has announced a multi-season partnership with a top Italian Serie A club. Caerus was formed by Mike Adams, an analytics and risk management expert who has worked with names such as FanDuel and bet365.
Further reading: Caerus will be featured as a startup focus in next Monday’s E+M Cheat Sheet.
Calendar
Apr 17: Entain
Apr 18: Rank
Apr 24: Evolution, Kambi
Apr 26: Betsson
May 1: MGM Resorts
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