Clock is ticking
Complacency over the rise of crypto gambling would be a mistake
Crypto is gaining ground among a core gambling constituency.
In +More: BetMGM ups guidance, FanDuel reportedly in talks with Kalshi.
The big vote: Penn Entertainment’s AGM in the week ahead.
Puts & takes: Analysts split over Illinois surcharge copycat behavior.
Hard Rock Bet is growing – we know you know! And we want to bring in some more maestros to make beautiful music in our Sportsbook. You need to be among the very best in the industry to be considered for these roles. Are you up to it?
Gaining strength
We’re coming out of the sidelines: The rise of crypto gambling is no longer an edge-case phenomenon that Tier 1 operators in regulated markets can afford to ignore, according to Paul Leyland from gambling consultancy Regulus Partners.
Parallel universe: Speaking at a conference held in Gibraltar last week, he said crypto gambling was “almost certainly” going to outperform overall online gambling growth and increase its share of the total market in the next three to five years.
“We believe the market could double to $40bn NGR, putting it roughly on par with the global gray market and a third of the size of the domestically regulated market,” he said.
Leyland noted this would still be below the somewhat sensationalist number put forward in an FT article in late April.
A star is born: Leyland predicted that within the three-to-five-year time span, crypto gambling would no longer be a marginal sideshow. Instead, it could start to replace regulated real-money gambling among key demographics and in certain geographies.
“In ignoring crypto, operators are effectively pushing their highest-value customers into an unregulated ecosystem,” he warned.
“And once they go, they don’t just disappear: they help build the scale and capabilities of crypto, making it even more of a threat.”
Risk, reward and rebellion: Leyland argued there is a deep cultural overlap between the demographic that adopts crypto and those drawn to online gambling, particularly at the high-end.
“Somebody attracted to the asset of crypto is likely to be attracted to risk, financial reward and doing stuff online that feels cutting-edge or subversive,” he explained.
“That’s a strong match with gambling psychology, especially among VIPs.”
Unstoppable force: The rise of crypto mirrors the early emergence of online gambling, Leyland contended. Initially dismissed by land-based incumbents, it became material within five years and transformative within 15. Online-first brands absorbed or outcompeted legacy giants and the channel shift was slow but unstoppable.
Leyland believes a similar dynamic is now playing out, with regulated online operators at risk of being caught off guard.
“The world moves faster now than it did then,” he warned. “Businesses that look solid today could find themselves on the wrong side of history.”
Fragmented but resilient: Far from being a monolithic sector, crypto gambling is increasingly diverse and resilient, Leyland argued. Stake.com may account for as much as 15% of the crypto gambling industry, but unlike sweepstakes, for instance, crypto gambling is not reliant on a single operator, model or supplier.
This decentralisation not only makes enforcement more difficult, but also improves the customer experience, with operators competing on UX, loyalty and odds.
Leyland pointed out: “This is an ecosystem that is designed to be hard to regulate. And it’s getting better all the time.”
Crypto gambling’s technological and operational advances are making it more mainstream, not just as a shadow economy but as a legitimate rival.
Time to pretend: Currently, most Tier 1 regulated operators have no crypto offering, due to regulatory blocks, but Leyland argued they and their regulators must engage with crypto, not marginalise it. “Putting crypto into the ‘too difficult’ box is no longer viable,” he said.
“Regulators and operators must now work together to make crypto work, as a matter of strategic priority not convenience,” he added.
They use OpticOdds for:
⚡ Real-time prematch and in-play odds
⚡ Global market coverage and settlement
⚡ Flexible Bet Builder
👉 Launch now or Meet us at iGB Live
+More
Upgrade: BetMGM has upped its guidance for 2025 after the growth from Q1 continued into the second quarter, with NGR growth “broadly consistent” with the 34% seen in the first three months of the year. It said revenue for the 12 months is now expected to be at least $2.6bn vs. the previous range of $2.4bn-$2.5bn, while adj. EBITDA is now forecast at $100m vs. just positive previously. The company said it would provide a Q2 update on July 29.
Rumor mill: FanDuel is reported to be in talks with prediction market provider Kalshi about a potential player liquidity deal and equity stake, according to an article in Front Office Sports, which didn’t cite any named sources.
Not satisfied: Tilman Fertitta’s investment in Wynn Resorts came about because he sees value in an underperforming share price but also because he is unhappy with recent management decisions, according to his lawyer. The comments came during the Nevada Gaming Control Board hearing last week, which said Fertitta was suitable for licensing as a major shareholder.
Las Vegas Sands has paid back $1.63bn of debt that was due this year. The company paid the debt from cash resources and with a portion of its long-term credit facility.
The week ahead
Vote early, vote often: On Tuesday, Penn Entertainment shareholders will hold its AGM when it will be revealed whether activist investor HG Vora has been successful in its attempt to get its three board placements elected vs the two already accepted by the company.
Puts & takes: Susquehanna puts a low probability of HG Vora winning out over the three seats. Moreover, the team suggested there is unlikely to be any material change post-vote, given there is “little bid strength” for land-based consolidation and that a “sustainable” online strategy is more important.
E+M PRO subscribers can read the rundown of what the battle has been about here.
What we’re reading
How prediction markets work: “My biggest win came in the Trump-Lex Fridman podcast mention market. The video was scheduled to premiere on YouTube at a set time, but about an hour beforehand, I managed to find its transcript on his website. This gave me a huge edge, I scanned for relevant keywords, front-ran the market and loaded up on cheap shares. When the episode premiered and the market resolved, I walked away with over $10,000 – one of those rare, perfect trades.” From user ‘Mango Lassi’ on Polymarket Analytics.
Markets
Another regional slump: The potential for the marked increase in the oil price to be sustained due to the instability in the Middle East accounts for the falls seen on Friday among regional gaming stocks.
Worst hit was Full House, which was down nearly 7% on Friday and off by 4% for the week, followed by Caesars Entertainment, down 6.5% on Friday and off by 3% for the week.
Penn Entertainment, which will see its proxy fight resolved on Tuesday with the voting at its AGM (see above), was down 2% for the week and over 5% on Friday.
Shares in GiG Software continued their recent progress with a further 7.5% move upwards this week after the company revealed it has completed a directed issue of shares to a strategic investor.
The company will receive €4.7m, which it said it would use to strengthen its balance sheet, facilitate new business opportunities and for general corporate purposes.
Genius Sports was also up 2.5% this week after it announced its expanded NFL deal. Deutsche Bank gave the thumbs up, saying it removes a key overhang, gives further visibility in the out years, and expands the partnerships with future growth opportunities including with FANHub.
Double down: DoubleDown Interactive saw its share price slump by 25% on Thursday after the Korean-based STIC Special Situation Diamond fund sold its entire holding of 4.3 million shares in a secondary offering. DoubleDown did not receive any of the proceeds.
The shares regained some of the ground on Friday, up 8%, but ended the week down 16%.
Bottom of the charts was SharpLink Gaming, the affiliate turned ethereum treasury strategy, which announced at the end of last week it had completed its purchase of $463m of ETH.
The shares then tanked 72%, only going to show that old adages such as buy the rumor, sell the fact still hold true in this new crypto age.
Read across: Jim Chanos denounces Strategy’s Michael Saylor for using a misleading model to value his crypto-treasury firm.
Puts & takes
Six of one: The also-rans in Illinois are likely to copy the market leaders FanDuel and DraftKings in adding a 50¢ surcharge to all bets in Illinois, according to Jefferies.
The team noted that “theoretically” the smaller operators are less susceptible as they are all under the $20m threshold before the new top rate of 50% kicks in.
“However, we believe that most operators will likely seek to offset the tax rather than attempt to undercut DraftKings and FanDuel by offering surcharge-free bets,” the team argued.
Half a dozen of the other: However, the team at Truist returned from meetings last week in Las Vegas saying it did not “appear” that the management teams at MGM Resorts and Caesars Entertainment were readying any kind of move.
Indeed, the analysts said both companies saw the tax increase as having an “immaterial impact” on their respective online operations.
“We do wonder if this could be an opportunity for either/both to gain market share,” Truist added.
As for the top two, the Jefferies team suggested that given the structure of the transaction fee and the tax the pair could benefit by ~$5m in additional net revenue. This is because the first $20m of revenue would be taxed at the lower 25% but the two would still collect the full surcharge.
They argued that given there are no incremental expenses incurred this revenue would fall almost 100% straight through to the bottom line.
This would offset any “small headwind” to handle growth caused by the new surcharge.
GeoComply: Where advanced geolocation fights advanced fraud.
Geolocation isn’t just about compliance anymore—because today’s fraudsters aren’t dabbling. They’re deploying tech stacks as advanced as yours, draining operators through bonus abuse, spoofing, location masking, stolen identities, and chargebacks that can hit six to seven figures a month.
GeoComply offers unmatched real-time protection that goes far beyond ticking a compliance box. With over 2B checks monthly and deep data insights since U.S. market inception, our data advantage powers machine learning models and adaptive intelligence that detect bad actors masquerading as “real” players to shut them down before they hit your bottom line.
Visit the GeoComply booth #A160 at the Canadian Gaming Summit next week, or book a demo to schedule a deep dive.
The teardown – OSB survey
Seeing the benefits: In-play betting is emerging as a transformative trend within the US OSB market, according to Jefferies’ latest proprietary player survey.
The findings point to widespread adoption of in-game wagering, with more than 90% of active bettors engaging in or expressing interest in the format.
Taking your fancy: According to the OSB Survey 7.0, around 80% of surveyed players have placed at least one in-play bet, and over 90% said more in-game betting opportunities would enhance their experience.
Additionally, 92% of respondents rated the ability to place in-play bets as at least “slightly important,” while 95% reported checking odds or considering a cash-out mid-game.
In-play curious: The data suggested a two-tiered opportunity: a ‘core’ 30-40% of players who are avid in-play bettors and an additional 40–50% who are open to increased in-play engagement.
This combined cohort constitutes more than 90% of the surveyed total addressable market, underscoring the potential for in-play to become a dominant format.
Microdosing: Parlay betting remains the most popular format, preferred by ~60% of users, but in-play has risen to become the primary method for 15% of respondents. Meanwhile, 36% of surveyed players reported trying microbetting, with 5% naming it their top bet type.
Brand preference: Respondents put DraftKings in the lead at 32%, compared to 20% for FanDuel, reversing previous survey trends. Jefferies suggested this could reflect recent promotional strategies rather than a structural shift.
BetMGM, Fanatics, ESPN Bet and Caesars also outperformed their current GGR shares in terms of user preference.
Leg up: Despite market challenges, including tax hikes, limited state expansion and the rise of prediction markets, Jefferies remained bullish on the OSB sector overall. “In-play betting could represent a new leg higher in handle, regardless of new state legalizations,” the analysts concluded.
With in-play adoption nearing ubiquity among online sports bettors, Jefferies argued that the US market was entering a new growth phase, driven not just by expansion but by deepening user engagement.
Still swerving around the same platform potholes?
Are you one bump away from a blowout?
Legacy drag, fragile integrations, and internal delivery gaps don’t fix themselves.
Fincore brings three generations of iGaming platform expertise, a library of proven modules, and serious tech muscle to smooth the journey and accelerate what matters.
We don’t just patch. We rebuild momentum.
The social dumpster
Sick of it: Jan Wienk of L&L Europe has had enough of the ‘rinse and repeat’ cycle of iCasino games production and one company in particular.
Upcoming earnings
Jun 17: Penn Entertainment AGM
Jun 24: FDJ United investor meeting
Jul 17: Evolution
Jul 18: Betsson
Jul 23: Kambi, Las Vegas Sands, Churchill Downs
Jul 29: BetMGM
Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments' Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem.
An +More Media publication.
For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.
