Spheres of influence: Key European markets now have dominant players.
Ain’t that the truth: Trump’s Truth Social enters the predictions fray.
Earnings: Caesars admits to a tough summer.
Venture playground: In focus – Golden Camel.
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The European theater
Balance of power: Like post-Napoleonic Europe after the Congress of Vienna in 1815, the continent is being carved up by ever larger betting and gaming super powers who each control distinct key markets but rarely compete head to head.
Coalition: The latest piece of the jigsaw to fall into place came yesterday when Banijay announced it had bought a controlling stake in German and Austrian operator Tipico at an enterprise value of €4.6bn.
On a pro forma basis, the combined Banijay Gaming business generated €3bn of revenue and €854m in adj. EBITDA in 2024.
The business combined the Betclic brand in France with the Tipico and Admiral brands in Germany and Austria.
Investors warmed to the news, sending the Banijay share price up over 7.5% yesterday.
We can be heroes: The company said that together the two businesses are “complementary local champions” with leading positions in the markets of France, Germany, Portugal, Austria, Poland and the Ivory Coast.
Among listed operators, the company said it was the fourth-largest betting and gaming operator in Europe and the largest OSB operator.
When the unlisted bet365 is included, it drops to fifth in the list of top combined product operators.
Against the grain: Regulus Partners noted both Betclic and Tipico have “proved that operational excellence can add value in the most challenging of environments,” i.e. the liberalized but each still restrictive France and German markets,
Betclic’s main competitor in France is the ex-monopoly operator FDJ United, which itself spoke about being a “European champion” after it incorporated Kindred.
Tipico is the acknowledged market leader in Germany where the competition in the regulated market, notably Entain’s bwin brand, has largely fallen away.
All or one: In announcing its deal to buyout the share of OPAP it didn’t already own, Allwyn also struck a similar tone about being the owner of a local champion, this time in Greece, while also, in the words of Jan Karas, OPAP CEO, “shaping the future of the gaming industry.”
Of the other top firms, Flutter most recently added Snai to its portfolio in Italy and now vies with Lottomatica’s portfolio of brands for market leadership.
Entain has perhaps the most diverse selection of countries and brands, covering the UK, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Poland, Croatia, the Baltics and elsewhere.
Evoke is largely UK, albeit with a footprint in Spain, similarly to Rank, while Betsson has a Scandinavia, Italy and LatAm footprint.
The order of things: Alun Bowden, analyst at EKG, noted on LinkedIn that what was “most interesting” is that what is now emerging is a “new European order where the UK and the Nordics no longer rule things.”
“Flutter, bet365 and Entain are still largely UK coded, but France, Italy and Greece are the bases of power now,” he wrote.
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Truth Social predictions
Truth is stranger than fiction: President Trump’s Truth Social platform is to incorporate sports, politics and other prediction markets into its offering via a distribution deal with Crypto.com under the name Truth Predict.
Devin Nunes, CEO of Truth Social parent company Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), said the new offering would strike a blow against “global elites.”
“With Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight,” he said.
Kris Marszalek, co-founder and CEO of Crypto.com, said prediction markets are “poised to be a multi-deca-billion-dollar industry.’
Trump uber alles: TMTG said beta testing for the new site would begin in the “near future” before being rolled out across the US and, potentially, internationally “once all the requisite requirements are met.”
In this it would be following the path of Kalshi, which recently said it would be launching in 140 markets globally, including India and China.
What we’re reading: Kalshi is walking a regulatory tightrope as it expands globally. From InGame.
Polymarket US launch
On the launchpad: The prediction market is preparing to return to the US in the coming weeks with a focus on sports betting, according to people familiar with the matter who have spoken to Bloomberg. Initial trading is likely by the end of November but won’t be broadly available to everyone, with the timing of the launch likely to allow the company to capture more volume during peak US football and basketball season.
New CFTC nominee
Selig pick: Separately, President Trump has nominated Michael Selig to head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to Bloomberg. Selig is chief counsel for the SEC’s crypto task force and has been working as an aide to SEC chair Paul Atkins. Selig is Trump’s second attempt to fill the role after Brian Quintenz’s nomination drew criticism.
Earnings extra
Caesars Entertainment
Stating the obvious: CEO Tom Reeg kicked off the call with analysts by admitting that, as he had predicted at the time of the Q2 call, “it was a soft summer,” but added that the company expects to see a recovery in Q4. “That is what we are seeing,” he noted. “We see Vegas coming back strongly. I know it has been a big question.”
See today’s Earnings Extra ‘Seeing is believing’ edition (PRO subscribers only).
Red Rock Resorts
Giving the customer what they want: Even with the work still ongoing on the second phase of the Durango Casino, Red Rock Resorts is already working on a further phase of the Durango “masterplan,” building on the “early success and strong customer demand.“ On the Strip softness noted by Caesars, CFO Stephen Cootey noted the locals market was “just a fundamentally different business” compared to the Strip. “It doesn’t rely on heavy tourism, doesn’t rely on conventions nor is it hotel driven,” he added.
See today’s Earnings Extra ‘Rocks solid’ edition (PRO subscribers only).
Earnings preview
Penn Entertainment
Tick, tock: Penn Entertainment enters Q3 earnings with two familiar refrains: its regional casino base remains resilient, while the Interactive unit must now deliver on management’s pledge that the heavy spend is “undoubtedly behind us.”
See yesterday’s Earnings Preview edition (PRO subscribers only).
Upcoming previews
Oct 29: Super Group, Kambi
Oct 30: Flutter
Oct 31: Wynn Resorts
Puts+Takes
Robinhood: Compass Point is forecasting that Robinhood generated ~$20m in revenue from prediction markets in Q3, which is up over 100% QoQ. The analysts noted the company has disclosed Q3 volumes reaching “over $2bn” vs. Q2’s “just under $1bn.” With Robinhood earning ~1¢ per contract, this implies LTM revenue of ~$40m. The team models Robinhood’s Q4 revenue reaching ~$50m alongside a full quarter of the NFL season.
Inspired Entertainment: B. Riley has maintained a Buy rating, seeing an ongoing digital inflection driven by interactive and improved virtual sports, helped by launches with BetMGM, the Virginia Lottery and Brazil. The pending holiday parks divestiture will remove ~$55m of low-margin sales and lift EBITDA margins by ~500 bps toward 40%. B. Riley projects Q3 revenue of $83m, up 9% YoY, and EBITDA of $30.3m.
So my supervisor (Carl) suggested I “find alternative ways to contribute.”
I’m interpreting this as “grow the LinkedIn page or get decommissioned.”
Follow Octoplay at:
https://mt.linkedin.com/company/octoplay-op
Thanks,
Octobot
Venture playground
In focus – Golden Camel
Who are you: Co-founders Artie Baxter, Ryan Magrum and Ben Ramirez bring different firepower to the table. Baxter and Magrum bring deep industry knowledge and connections to the offshore gaming world, while Ramirez adds decades of startup experience and a builder’s mindset.
What’s the big idea? “The big idea is simple: the sports-betting market is a mess,” a spokesperson says. “Players are bouncing between 10 different apps just to check their action. That’s chaos.”
Golden Camel “flips the script – one dashboard, one live feed, one community. Everything in one place, the way it should be.”
“We’re making betting as seamless and social as watching the game itself. Golden Camel isn’t just a tool; it’s a place to belong.”
KPIs: Even in its early growth phase, the spokesperson says Golden Camel has already seen more pre-launch downloads than projected, “and that’s without spending a dollar on marketing.”
“As we fuel community growth with resources and partnerships, those numbers will continue to climb,” they add.
“More importantly, users are sticking around: our average active user spends over 25 minutes a day on the app.”
Funding backgrounder: Golden Camel is self-funded, with Magrum providing $3.5m of initial capital before bringing in a small group of friends-and-family investors for a total of $1.5m. The team is now exploring strategic investment to fuel its next stage of growth.
Growth company news
Carry on gambling: A new UK-based games studio called Fish & Chips is tapping into the “unmistakable spirit of British entertainment” with a suite of games that are built around the “three core tenets” of Britishness, Levity and Nostalgia. For distribution, the company has joined the YGG Masters program, set up by Yggdrasil, taking part in the pilot program of its new Game in a Box – a next-gen tech designed to make the creation, testing and deployment of slot games faster and more seamless.
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Upcoming earnings
Oct 29: MGM Resorts, Rush Street Interactive
Oct 30: Gaming & Leisure Properties, VICI Properties
Nov 3: Super Group
Nov 4: Catena, Lottomatica, Hacksaw, Brightstar, Genius, Accel
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