A hedged bet
FanDuel’s financial events move is a calculated bet
Limited entry into prediction markets more than just a sighter.
XST report highlights the key NFL season battlegrounds.
Markets: Powell’s rates suggestion boosts sector stocks.
The teardown: Signs of life during the Club World Cup.
Hard Rock Bet is growing – we know you know! And we want to bring in some more maestros to make beautiful music in our Sportsbook. You need to be among the very best in the industry to be considered for these roles. Are you up to it?
On maneuvers
Fashion statement: Flutter’s move to partner FanDuel with CME to launch a limited selection of financial indicator-based prediction markets represents a gamble, albeit one that is backed with the equivalent of a corporate best odds guarantee.
As was detailed by the analysts last week, the move is an attempt to position itself at the intersection of financial trading and consumer betting.
Crucially, though, parent company Flutter will be hoping to avoid provoking the regulatory firestorm that has engulfed Kalshi and Robinhood.
I got a different set of urgencies now: The initial product, expected late in Q4, will be modest in scope. FanDuel will offer contracts already regulated and hosted by CME, such as yes/no wagers on whether the S&P 500 or gold will hit specific levels by given dates.
By sticking to financial outcomes rather than sports, Flutter avoids immediate confrontation with state gaming regulators and, in California, the tribes.
Toe to toe: Analysts at CBRE see the partnership as a carefully calibrated “toe-dip,” with FanDuel finding a prudent way to enter the US prediction markets with a “reputable partner” that has a century-long track record of regulatory standing, providing credibility.
Jefferies noted CME’s existing licenses as both a designated contract market and futures commission merchant license, will enable FanDuel to effectively shortcut those hurdles.
Needle work: Paul Leyland, analyst at Regulus Partners, said Flutter “couldn’t ignore” the emergence of prediction markets and agreed that if it stays away from sports then it might be able to “thread the needle.”
Moreover, the nature of its business and that of CME means it will not face the liquidity issues that could potentially dog others in the space.
All prediction markets need to have someone on the other side of the bet, whether that be Susquehanna in Kalshi’s case or other market makers.
“Exchanges depend on professional market makers to seed activity, and Flutter could theoretically fill that role,” Leyland said.
This could be huge: “FanDuel’s move is an admission that the prediction market opportunity is too real to ignore,” said Chris Grove of EKG, who argued the CME tie-up is less a defensive hedge and more of calculated build.
“It gives FanDuel the sandbox to sort out all of the plumbing and logistics and the back-of-house details for operating prediction markets,” he suggested. “Adding sports on top will be trivial.”
Targeting a launch later this year is, in his words, “actually an aggressive target for rolling out a new product and app, especially given the overlap with the NFL season.”
The heat is on: CBRE noted Kalshi has already reported $2bn in trading volume in the first six months of its sports contracts, which now include spreads, totals and player props. Meanwhile, Robinhood has built a prediction markets hub around Kalshi’s contracts, processing $1bn in volume in Q2.
These developments present a credible long-term threat to sportsbooks if left unanswered and it helps explain why Flutter felt it had to act.
The first shall be last: Both Leyland and Grove agreed that, in this instance, first-mover advantage is not the be-all and end-all. For all the noise being created by Kalshi’s sports events expansion for this football season, as Leyland pointed out, it is still an inferior product against sports betting.
Even ceding ground in the non-OSB states of California and Texas is only a temporary situation: FanDuel is likely to have a sports prediction product ready for these markets for the 2026 NFL regular season.
As Grove added: “Jason Robins [DraftKings’ CEO] said it well: being early to prediction markets matters, but being the very first mover carries its own risks.”
“FanDuel seems to be following that playbook with the CME deal.”
Powering Tier 1 operators, sweepstakes, market makers and apps worldwide.
Global coverage, sub-second latency, and comprehensive trading tools to keep you ahead of the competition.
👉 Book a Demo | Meet us at SBC Summit
+More
Horn of plenty: Fanatics is just outside the top 10 of largest privately held companies, with a valuation of $31bn, according to rankings put together by CB Insights. The apparel to betting to trading cards operator is 11th in the list of most valuable unicorns.
By the numbers – New York: Staying with Fanatics, the company saw its handle in New York shoot up to $147m in the week to August 17, claiming #1 status for the first time with 32% of the total of $458m. DraftKings was second with $122m and FanDuel in third at $117m. In GGR terms, however, FanDuel retained top spot with 42% share, followed by DraftKings (33%). Fanatics was just ahead of BetMGM with 8% of GGR.
On social
Unequal opportunities: “Two of the biggest gambling operations in the world are run by women but sexism in their trading departments seem rife,” says Jamie Hart on X, who bemoans the lack of player markets for the Women’s Rugby World Cup.
The NFL playbook
Getting to know you: Hyper-personalization is destined to be the defining battleground in the upcoming football season, according to executives surveyed by XST Capital ahead of kick-off next weekend.
The report drew on insights from 31 leaders across DFS, betting tools, affiliates, B2B suppliers, payments and social/prediction markets.
It found that experiences must feel bespoke to cut through.
Attention seeking: Whatever happens on the field, off it the season ahead is predicted to be about identity and retention. Wager Games and SoBet argued the winners will be those that foster communities, not just transactions.
Adam Small of Third Planet Media said what fans often want is all the benefits of hearing from independent sources - and those benefits include simple things like odds comparison but also complex things like deep journalism covering the business - there will always be a place for independent media.”
Max Peterson from Tallysight says fans want to follow creators long-term, build social proof around their predictions, and participate in betting culture without necessarily risking significant money every time.”
Dabble is taking cues from social platforms with season wraps, profile highlights and Twitch-style streams that encourage users to share and celebrate their journey.
The AI arms race: Technology has become the most visible frontier. EdgeSports’ comeback-detection models produced a 64% against-the-spread hit rate in 2024 NFL betting, while Pick The Odds has driven latency down to 1.6 seconds for arbitrage across 100+ sportsbooks.
WalterPicks blends Monte Carlo simulations with human analysts to reduce blind spots.
The edge is no longer access to data but how quickly and intelligently it is turned into action.
A question of credibility: With operators building their own media arms, affiliates are repositioning around trust. Third Planet Media prioritises long-form, credible content over click-driven traffic, arguing that reputational capital will prove more durable.
Betsperts, after a spree of acquisitions, is creating a diversified content ecosystem to control multiple fan touchpoints.
Independent voices see their value in neutrality at a time when operator-led media increasingly blurs the lines.
Regulation equals resilience: The Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) shows how compliance can be turned into strength.
Initially challenged by state licensing, it now enjoys 85% annual retention in its Dynasty leagues and is expanding Best Ball and showcase tournaments with $1m prizes.
Compliance raised costs but also created higher barriers to entry and consumer trust.
Beyond betting: Engagement now spans more than wagers. Bet Caddy’s “emotionally intelligent” alerts ensure every notification matters, while FantasyPros and Doink are layering automation to simplify journeys for newcomers without losing depth for experts.
XST’s Joel Simkins argued that this season is not just a “massive revenue engine” but will be the proving ground for innovation, fan engagement and monetization.
“This year, companies are competing as much for attention as for wallet share,” he added.
Markets
Hole in one: A feel-good factor settled on the markets at the end of the week, almost solely down to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s ameliorative comments made during an economic summit in Jackson Hole last week.
The potential for a cut in the rate of Fed funds saw many leading gaming stocks enjoy the widespread market rally.
Caesars rose 7% on Friday, leaving it up 5.5% for the week on the basis that what is good for the US economy will provide a boost to the Vegas economy.
Similarly, MGM Resorts was up 5.5% on the day, 5% on the week.
High, ho, silver lining: High Roller Technologies enjoyed the best performance this week, up 19%, on the news that it has gained acceptance for its plan to regain listing compliance with the NYSE American.
At issue is the reporting of the company’s accounts for the three years before it achieved a listing last year.
Life is a rollercoaster: At least Catena Media shareholders have no need to splash out on Euro Disney tickets if they are seeking late summer thrills – the share price continued its recent rollercoaster ride on Friday with an 11% increase.
However, this left the gaming affiliate near enough flat on the week after the company suffered a midweek slump – coincidentally, at the same time that Better Collective was telling analysts it would continue to swear off M&A for the foreseeable future.
Dark skies: Bottom of the heap was New Zealand-listed casino operator SkyCity, which this week embarked upon a NZ$240m ($141m) discounted equity raise.
This came with the company’s FY25 earnings, which showed revenue down 11% to NZ$852m while underlying profit dropped 42% to NZ$72.5m.
Still swerving around the same platform potholes?
Are you one bump away from a blowout?
Legacy drag, fragile integrations, and internal delivery gaps don’t fix themselves.
Fincore brings three generations of iGaming platform expertise, a library of proven modules, and serious tech muscle to smooth the journey and accelerate what matters.
We don’t just patch. We rebuild momentum.
The teardown – Club World Cup
Cole who? Unless you are a Chelsea fan, it’s easy to think that this summer’s Club World Cup was a soccer tournament that will not live long in the memory, whatever FIFA president Gianni Infantino may hope.
But while fan enthusiasm for the event was tepid, it still managed a handful of mentions in the earnings quarter just gone.
It’s immaterial: As was noted by Kambi, the Club World Cup was never going to match the activity during last year's Euros and Copa América – or in the blunter words of Lottomatica CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi, it was “absolutely immaterial.”
But Kambi’s CEO Werner Becher insisted the tournament was still a “welcome addition to the sporting calendar.”
Notably, Entain’s Stella David said that an element of the revival enjoyed by the company’s Brazilian operation was down to “particularly strong” player activity and turnover during the month-long tournament.
Talking up the game: Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl noted the event was “very good” for the business’ managed trading service (MTS) unit. “It was the right decision that we jumped on [the rights deal] at very short notice,” he added.
Indeed, speaking to E+M, Darren Small, SVP of Sportradar’s MTS unit, noted that for all the cynicism about the nature of the expanded tournament there were some very good teams taking part.
“The interest from a betting perspective was good – it wasn’t miles behind the Euros and the Copa América,” he said.
But what perhaps helps explain the lack of much business for most of the European books – where interest in soccer is highest – was the kick-off times of the games. “The timings really didn’t work for the European bettor,” said Small.
But that obviously wasn’t the case for fans in Latin America. “We saw a nice increase in that region, particularly from Brazil,” he added.
There would have been interest anyway, of course, so it is hard to say there was any clear yardstick. Still, there was significant tournament interest.
Increase Operator Margins with EDGE Boost Today!
EDGE Boost is the first dedicated bank account for bettors.
Increase Cash Access: On/Offline with $250k/day debit limits
No Integration or Costs: Compatible today with all operators via VISA debit rails
Incremental Non-Gaming Revenue: Up to 1% operator rebate on transactions
Lower Costs: Increase debit throughput to reduce costs against ACH/Wallets
Eliminate Chargebacks and Disputes
Eliminate Debit Declines
Built-in Responsible Gaming tools
To learn more, contact Matthew Cullen, chief strategy officer: Matthew@edgemarkets.io
Upcoming earnings
Aug 26: Gentoo Media
Aug 27: Tabcorp
Aug 28: Star Entertainment
Sep 11: Playtech
Sep 18: Super Group Investor Day
Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments' Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem.
An +More Media publication.
For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.
