Threading the needle
Pricing accuracy helps Flutter overcome sobering October
Flutter defies October’s adverse NFL results.
Nigel Eccles raises $6m for crypto-based iCasino startup BetHog.
Light & Wonder shrugs off Dragon Train disruption.
+More earnings: IGT and Genius Sports.
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Priced in
Merely a flesh wound: Flutter said yesterday that the adverse NFL results in October and the first week of November had “more than offset” the positive momentum in Q3.
But the hit to FY guidance is minimal with revenue now expected to be 1% down at midpoint and adj. EBITDA now forecast at $670m-$750m, down 4% at midpoint.
Moreover, ex-US guidance for the year was raised to $8.1bn-$8.3bn, an 11% increase YoY at midpoint, while adj. EBITDA was upped to $1.77bn-$1.87bn.
Taste the difference: CEO Peter Jackson pointed out how “crucial” FanDuel’s pricing accuracy was at times, such as have been encountered in the early weeks of Q4, suggesting it was a point of difference with the competition.
Rival DraftKings said last week that the punter-friendly results had caused the company to lower its own Q4 adj. EBITDA guidance by 30% at midpoint.
Jackson said it was the pricing that was “driving the material differential” between Flutter and its rivals.
When customer-friendly results occur, he added, FanDuel doesn’t “get hit as badly” as rivals with “loose pricing, which is not as accurate.”
Deuce: Less helpful at such times is FanDuel’s parlay advantage, which “actually make positive results better and negative results potentially worse” because parlays can be a driver of volatility.
But Jackson added it was “really, really important” when handling complex parlay bets that the pricing is “as accurate as possible.”
Summing up, Jackson said Flutter as a group has the “confidence to offer a broader range of products and markets,” which means “they’re more likely to take more parlay products.”
Nobody likes a monkey on his back: CFO Rob Coldrake noted how Flutter always works with “economic parameters” for its payback. “And we’re tracking well within that at the moment, both in terms of marketing payback and generosity,” he added.
Nevertheless, Jackson also hailed FanDuel’s “big step-up in parlay adoption,” adding that “customers really like the product.”
I did it your way: Coldrake added that FanDuel’s Your Way product that has been launched in Colorado and West Virginia was the next evolution of the parlay product.
Your Way will “offer more markets and compound that same game parlay benefit even more,” he said.
By the numbers: Q3 revenue rose 27% to $3.25bn while adj. EBITDA rose 74% to $450m. US adj. EBITDA hit $58m while ex-US the group generated $392m of profit.
Read across: The parlay good news wasn’t confined to the US. In Italy, Jackson said the introduction of SGP capabilities to Sisal saw it account for a quarter of all sportsbook wagers in the first six weeks of the soccer season.
With regard to recent M&A, Coldrake said the addition of Snai in Italy would compound Sisal’s recent market share gains. There is a “significant cost and revenue synergy plan behind the Snai deal,” he added.
Snai is a brand “that’s synonymous with sports betting” in Italy, he added.
Over the hump: In the UK, the company continued to take market share but Jackson said that, with the competition now lapping the restrictions they imposed upon themselves in the regulatory situation, further growth would be harder to come by.
He said it will “become more difficult” to grow share at the same rate but added that observers shouldn’t underestimate the strength of the Flutter product.
Payback: As previously promised, Flutter will embark upon its share repurchase program and Jackson said it will lay out for $350m of shares by the end of Q125.
Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments' Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem.
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Here comes the cavalry: The team at JMP said that after a “well-understood tough stretch of game outcomes,” relief for the books came with a number of underdogs winning across the NFL.
Meanwhile, the team also pointed to data from Huddle that shows around three-quarters of NBA bets during the season are player props compared to around half for the NFL.
Meanwhile, higher margin parlays are also on the rise in the NBA, with leg-per-parlay now 12% higher.
Jackpocket has followed the lead of parent DraftKings and announced an exclusive partnership with Barstool Sports.
Evolution has completed the acquisition of Galaxy Gaming.
Easy rider
Hog boast: BetHog, the crypto casino launched this week by former FanDuel founders Nigel Eccles and Rob Jones, has raised a $6m seed funding round led by Web3 native venture house 6MV.
Joining them for the ride are Bullpen Capital, Karatage and Advancit Capital, as well as several angel investors including Chris Grove from EKG and Josh Hannah from Flutter Entertainment.
OG: BetHog is built on the Solana blockchain and, while it will feature content from Evolution and Pragmatic, the aim is to build original games including crash and mine game variants as well as PvP games and stream-a-long betting.
Speaking to E+M, Eccles said he hoped BetHog would build games that appealed to a younger male demographic which is “both competitive and social.”
“The FanDuel DFS product did that very well,“ he added. “I would even argue that sports betting is a regression.”
Two step: Eccles said step one for BetHog was the offshore markets, which will exclude the US and the UK. But step two would be "looking at countries where we can come onshore, such as what Stake.com is doing.”
Notably, Stake has now got licensed footprints in Colombia and most recently Italy.
“It’s not a dealbreaker if we can’t bring our products in without crypto,” he added.
Read across: For more on what Eccles thinks is happening in the crypto world right now and his opinions on the rise of prediction markets, see next week’s The Token Word.
Light & Wonder earnings
Replacement bus: Light & Wonder played down the disruption caused during the quarter by the dispute with Aristocrat over the Dragon Train slot, with the company attempting to reassure investors over its progress towards its 2025 adj. EBITDA target of $1.4bn.
The company previously warned that pulling the product from the portfolio would cost ~5% of that $1.4bn. But it added that adj. EBITDA growth would still be about 10% in 2024.
Q3 saw gaming revenue rise 15% to $537m while SciPlay was up 5% to $206m and iCasino rose 6% to $74m. Adj. EBITDA came in at $319m, up 13%.
Team work: Noting the disruption came late in the quarter, CEO Matt Wilson was keen to praise his team for the way it “pulled together.”
He noted that around 95% of the 2.2k+ installed base was quickly converted to different games.
“Dragon Train was one game out of 130 that we make every year,” he added.
+More earnings
IGT: Investors got a look-see on how the pure-play lottery provision IGT operates for the first time, as the company reported numbers shorn of the gaming and iCasino business bought by Apollo earlier this year.
Any enthusiasm would have been dampened, though, by the 2% decline in revenues in Q3 to $587m and the 6% fall in adj. EBITDA to $264m. Both were below consensus.
The company also issued guidance for Q4 revenue of $640m-$690m and adj. EBITDA of $280m-$300m.
AGS: Revenues rose 11% to $99m while adj. EBITDA was up 9% to $43.7m. AGS is subject to a take-private by PE house Brightstar, which is expected to be completed by H225.
Genius Sports: The betting data, ad tech and sports tech provider enjoyed a 17%+ share price bump after it said revenue rose 18% to $120m while adj. EBITDA grew by 45% to $25.7m.
The company also upped its FY24 revenue guidance by 24% to $511m and adj. EBITDA to $86m, a 61% uplift.
Mark Locke, CEO, said the raised guidance came despite the punter-friendly results in October and early November.
He said this demonstrated the “resilience and differentiation” offered by the business, adding that Genius had achieved a “universal price increase” across all its bookmaking client renewals.
🔥 Genius Sports gets a vote of confidence from shareholders
Gentoo Media: The gaming affiliate newly split from the GiG platform business said revenues came in at €30.4m, up 35% YoY, while adj. EBITDA was up 36% to €14m.
Golden Matrix: The operator behind Meridianbet saw revenue rise 85% to $41m while adj. EBITDA hit $4.3m. Meridianbet’s Q3 revenue grew 16% YoY, led by a 19% online increase and 6% in retail, while its MexPlay operation saw GGR rise to $15m in the period.
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Venture playground
Growth company news
Gaming supply provider Pretty Technical, which provides platform vault, RGS and RNG services, has announced a significant minority investment from Winsure Global. Winsure previously invested in an angel round of financing in 2022.
Startup focus – CatoriTech
Who are you? Founded in 2024, with the idea of “revolutionizing the iGaming industry,” Cyprus-headquartered CatoriTech’s key management team includes Domenico Mazzola, CEO, and Antonio Cacciotti, CTO.
What's the big idea? Many player account management systems in the gambling space are “like a lasagna,” says Mazzola, “layer after layer of software stacked over time.”
“While it might hold together, once you try to make any changes things get messy fast, and it's nearly impossible to pull apart one layer without disrupting the rest.”
This complexity makes it difficult for operators to adapt and grow, Mazzola says. Instead of piling everything into a rigid structure, the tech startup uses “a set of building blocks,” with each piece “independent yet designed to fit together seamlessly.”
This allows operators to choose the features they need, so they can “scale and evolve as their business demands,” he says.
The system handles real-time data, helping operators to make fast, informed decisions, and boasts a customizable dashboard.
“By keeping day-to-day operations separate from long-term data, everything runs more smoothly,” Mazzola adds.
Funding background: CatoriTech was founded with the support of a combination of investors, including an angel investor and a venture capital firm.
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Events calendar
Nov 11-14: Sigma Europe, Malta
Dec 2-4: Thai Entertainment Complex Summit, Bangkok
Dec 4: VIXIO Global Regulatory Awards
Jan 20-22: ICE, Barcelona
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