‘Hands off AGS’ plea

Investor goes public on take-private fears, Flutter reaction, Sportradar, Aristocrat, Gambling.com earnings +More

May 17, 2024

Activist investor says Brightstar’s $1.1bn offer undervalues AGS.
By the numbers: Fanatics’ New Jersey showing in April.
Aristocrat looks to accelerate online, puts social elements up for review.
Flutter winning on product everywhere it goes.
Affiliateland: BC buys AceOdds, Gambling.com’s Google index issues.

Activist laments ‘cheap’ AGS buyout

Just say no: An activist investor in gaming supplier AGS has gone public with fears that the offer from private equity house Brightstar offers shareholders little or no premium and has allowed for little investor understanding of the company’s “exceptional” recent trading performance.

In a public letter, Emmett Investment Management, which controls ~1.5% of AGS’ shares, is urging shareholders to vote against the deal.
“It appears that AGS stockholders are being asked to accept a bid from Brightstar that offers effectively zero – or negative – premium,” said Alexander Rohr, founder and CEO at Emmett.

Call that an offer? The $1.1bn take-private bid announced late last week valued AGS at a multiple of ~5.7x FY24 EBITDA. But Rohr said in the letter he does not understand why any shareholder “would be excited to sell” at a relatively low multiple and vs. a flat share price relative to 2019.

He pointed out back then AGS traded on a multiple of ~7x adj. EBITDA.
Were that applied to the $225m of adj. EBITDA forecast for 2026, it would mean the shares would be trading at nearly double the takeout price.

Let the dog see the rabbit: Rohr said market participants were not given the opportunity to assess the recent progress made by AGS as the offer came through “just hours” before the release of AGS’ “transformational” first quarter earnings. In Q1, AGS adj. EBITDA grew by 21% to $44m on revenues that rose nearly 13% to $96m.

“We are concerned that many investors may not even be aware of AGS’ exceptional recent operating performance since the company did not issue an earnings press release, as is its normal practice, Rohr said.
“The only way for this take-private bid to have been remotely palatable to stockholders was if stockholders did not fully appreciate the impact of the first quarter results.”

Reel around the fountain: Rohr pointed to a further reason for skepticism over the Brightstar bid, saying it also failed to reflect any benefit AGS stands to gain from the coming market disruption caused by the IGT/Everi merger.

AGS itself touted in an investor presentation that the merger could accelerate market share gains in the mechanical reel segment where it currently has zero share.
It has a “best-in-class, brand new product” set to be released in H224, said Rohr

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+More

Shuttered: The Mirage’s new owners Hard Rock have confirmed a mid-July closing date for the Las Vegas Strip property. It is planned to reopen as the Hard Rock Las Vegas in spring 2027.

Gaming & Leisure Properties has three regional casinos on a sale-and-leaseback arrangement with Strategic Gaming Management for $105m in Nevada and South Dakota.

Betting exchange challenger Prophet Exchange is to shut up shop in New Jersey at the end of the month, according to Sports Handle. This leaves Sporttrade as the lone exchange operating in the state.

Read across

Call the police: In Compliance+More this week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has moved to ban event contracts tied to political outcomes as it seeks to avoid playing the role of an “election cop.”

Stake in the ground: In the Token Word this week, Stake sets out its plans to build a hub in Bogatá, Colombia; while in the realm of prediction markets, Socios.com parent Chiliz has partnered with on-chain prediction markets liquidity provider Azuro to collaborate on the build of a sports prediction market on the Chiliz platform.

Head of Business Intelligence – Limassol
Senior Sports Trader – Beijing
Spanish Speaking Affiliate Manager – Remote

By the numbers

Creeping closer: B&M gaming in New Jersey fell over 6% YoY to $217m while iCasino was up a further 18% to $187m. Sports-betting GGR rose 47% to $106m on handle that enjoyed a 25% uplift to $1.04bn.

Fanatics continued its somewhat remarkable NJ journey, claiming 32% of GGR, just behind FanDuel on 36%, while DraftKings fell back to 18%.

👀 Fanatics cements second place in NJ with $32.9m in GGR

Massachusetts: Total state gaming GGR dropped 8% YoY to $147m in April. B&M gaming was down 3.6% while sports-betting GGR was down by 16%. The gap continued to close between the top two, with DraftKings on 48% vs FanDuel’s 39.5%.

Big get bigger: With roughly half the states having reported in April, GGR data showed the top two tightening their grip on the market with a combined 84% market share. According to the team at JMP, FanDuel controlled over 47% of the market while DraftKings hit over 36%, both figures representing an advance on the Q1 shares.

JMP’s data showed the pair taking share from BetMGM, which was down to 5.6%, and ESPN Bet, which came in at 1.5% in April vs. 2.7% in Q124.

Aristocrat earnings recap

Spin cycle: Fresh from completing the NeoGames acquisition, Aristocrat announced a strategic review for the developers elements of its social gaming unit, with both Big Fish Games ex-the social casino business and Plarium Global either being spun out as a separate entity or sold outright.

By the numbers: The news came with H124 showing revenue up 6% to A$3.27bn ($2.18bn) and EBITDA up nearly 18% to A$1.2bn. B&M gaming revenue was up 8% to A$1.83bn, Pixel United was down 1% to A$877m while the newly rebranded Aristocrat Interactive enjoyed a 49% increase in revenues to A$71.9m.

CEO Trevor Croker said the company was confident that “with the investments we're making, premium product and premium performance will be the priorities for our operators.”

Target practice: Asked about further M&A, Croker noted the consolidation in the supply space right now and argued that would “free up opportunity to take more share and for us to be more competitive.”

He added that Aristocrat sees potential target across all three verticals of gaming, interactive and social casino, notwithstanding the strategic review news.
Talking of the interactive business, he said new CEO Moti Malul and his team were “focused on making sure we accelerate out of the acquisitions.”

IGT earnings recap

Climb Everi mountain: Analysts said IGT’s ongoing “solid” execution ahead of the planned merger with Everi was of vital importance, after it posted Q1 revenue up 1% to $1.07bn with adj. EBITDA down 1% at $443m.

Tutto bene: Key to the performance was Italian lottery, and CEO Vince Sadusky reassured analysts on the call that as the only operator that has held a license for three decades IGT was “confident” about competing for the next licensing term.

Keeping us honest: Speaking on the earnings call about Aristocrat’s NeoGames completion and its new positioning in the iLottery space, Sadusky said NeoGames has been a “good competitor and they help to keep our team sharp.”

Flutter reaction

Satisfaction guaranteed: With Flutter CEO Peter Jackson waxing lyrical about the success of Paddy Power’s Super Sub in the UK – which allows punters to swap in a player to keep a same-game parlay alive – the team at CBRE noted how product innovation “remains a theme globally.”

The company said on Tuesday that 80% of its UK & Ireland customers had used the feature since roll-out.
“Regardless of jurisdiction, management attributes much of its recent performance to an array of product and content innovations,” the CBRE team said.

Doing it by the book: Looking into the North Carolina launch, the team at JMP pointed out it was the quality of product in both OSB and iCasino that was now part and parcel of the new state playbook for FanDuel.

Sportradar earnings recap

Serve and volley: The sports-betting data, AV and services provider added beat and raise to its roster in Q1 as it saw revenue of $266m come in 7% above consensus and adj. EBITDA of $47.2m that was 25% ahead of prior estimates.

The earnings saw reporting segments unveiled, with betting tech and solutions sports seeing a 35% increase in revenue to $219m while sports content, tech and solutions was up 5% to $47.1m.
CEO Carsten Koerl said Sportradar had enjoyed “significant” benefits from its ATP tennis and NBA partnerships.
“We have already seen more than 50% of ATP clients signing up for our core audiovisual products,” he said on the call with analysts.

Ground game: In OSB, Koerl noted the managed trading services offering saw turnover during Q1 rise 28% to over €9bn, which were it a single sportsbook would make it the global leader. He noted the launch of the Alpha Odds sports-trading offering in tennis and said it would soon go live with basketball.

Earnings in brief

Codere Online: Revenues were up 34% for the Spain- and Mexico-focused operator, while it posted a positive EBITDA contribution of €1.7m. Mexico further enhanced its status as the company’s biggest market. See next week’s LosIngresos+Mas for more.

FL Entertainment: The home to Betclic, which will henceforth be known as Banijay, said revenue at the betting and gaming division rose 32% to €322m, with sportsbook revenues up 25% to €247m and iCasino up 67% to €51.2m.

FL-controlled Bet-at-home, meanwhile, suffered a further revenue decline, down 11% at €11.7m. EBITDA fell to €744k.

Galaxy Entertainment: Net revenue came in up 50% YoY to HK$10.6m ($1.4m), while adj. EBITDA of HK$2.8bn represented a rise of 49% as customer traffic improved during the quarter following renovations to the gaming floor at the Galaxy Macau.

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Affiliateland

Better Collective buys AceOdds

Ace Oddity: The leading betting-and-gaming affiliate has snapped up UK-based sports-betting media outfit AceOdds for €42m in cash and shares. Founded in 2008, AceOdds provides betting tools, odds, reviews and streaming schedules through its web- and app-based platforms. The deal represents a multiple of 4x LTM EBITDA.

Following the acquisition, BC has upgraded its FY24 targets with revenue now forecast at €310m at midpoint vs. €305m previously, while adj. EBITDA is estimated at €135m at midpoint vs. €130m.

Gambling.com’s Google snafu

Search and destroy: The negative effect of Google’s new policy on site reputation abuses with Gambling.com’s media partners was evident in a 7.5% share price fall yesterday.

A widening net: The company cited Google’s actions as it cut its FY24 revenue forecast to $120m at midpoint vs. the previous guidance of $131m, with adj. EBITDA estimates now at $42m at midpoint vs. $45m previously.

Charles Gillespie, CEO, said the amount of content that fell foul of Google’s human reviewers was “greater than anyone would have expected.”
“This is not a typical update to Google's algorithms, but rather a global policy shift, which affects all industries, not just online gambling,” he added.

Left a bit, right a bit: Gillespie said Google had “moved the goalposts” on what it deems to be acceptable locations for particular types of commercial content. “Virtually all media partnerships, including the ones in the online gambling industry and our own have been affected,” he told analysts on the earnings call.

Affiliate earnings in brief

Raketech: Q1 revenues rose 20% YoY to €19m driven by the sub-affiliation segment where revenue more than doubled to €9m, while straight affiliation was down 19% to €8.8m. EBITDA was down 30% to €4.3m. The company said its Casumba business had been impacted by the Google core update.

XLMedia: As previously signaled, revenues for the year fell by 29% to £50.3m, while adj. EBITDA was down 36% to £12.1m. The damage was done by the North American operations where sports-betting affiliate revenue fell 42%. The company warned this wouldn’t be rectified soon due to the expected seasonal dip.

FansUnite, the company behind fan-activation business Betting Hero achieved a 14% YoY increase in revenues to $8.3m while adj. EBITDA rose 58% to $1.7m, helped by the recent North Carolina launch.

Calendar

May 21: Better Collective (earnings)
May 22: Better Collective (call)
Jun 6: Gaming in Holland

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