Churchill Downs suspends racing
Churchill Downs’ horse deaths inquiry, Tabcorp’s market share focus, DraftKings, Genius analyst takes, startup focus – GamePLAI +More
Good morning. On today’s agenda:
Churchill Downs suspends racing on horse death concerns.
Tabcorp CEO says company is “looking to disrupt”.
Analyst takes includes positive reports on DraftKings and Genius Sports.
Our startup focus is AI-assisted odds provider GamePLAI.
Churchill Downs’ horse deaths
Horse racing is suspended and moved to a different track as the company investigates the deaths of 12 horses.
Life and death: Churchill Downs announced late on Friday it would be suspending racing at its home track after this weekend’s action and moving the remainder of its spring meet to the Ellis Park track in Henderson, Kentucky.
The company said the move was a response to the “unusual number” of 12 horse fatalities within the last month.
Following an internal review and concurrent investigations conducted by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission and the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, “no single factor” has been identified as a potential cause and that there was “no discernable pattern” to link the fatalities.
Despite “no issues” having been pinned on the racing surfaces, Churchill Downs said it needed time to conduct a “top-to-bottom review“.
“What has happened at our track is deeply upsetting and absolutely unacceptable,” said CEO Bill Carstanjen.
Analyst takes: Wells Fargo said the timing of the news on Friday was “not ideal” but indicated the financial impact was limited despite the bad PR.
“Outside of the Derby, Churchill Downs doesn’t make much money on racing and, as seen during the pandemic, people who want to bet on racing will still do so online,” the team added.
The analysts noted the company didn't file an 8-K, “which typically coincides with some expectation for a material financial impact”.
Their biggest concern is “reputational damage” to Churchill Downs and the sport, they added.
Casting a shadow: Financially, the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby was a success for Churchill Downs, generating record handle and EBITDA. All-sources handle rose 5% to $412m while TwinSpires handle was up 9% to $74m.
On the Q1 earnings call held ahead of this year’s running, Carstanjen noted the Derby was the longest continually run sporting event in the US, through World Wars, recessions and “even pandemics”.
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The Week Ahead
The Gaming in Holland day-long conference takes place on Thursday and will include contributions from René Jansen, chair of the Netherlands Gambling Authority, and Anne-Jaap Snijders, who recently resigned as CCO at Kindred.
Where we’re speaking: E+M’s Scott Longley will moderate a session on affiliate marketing in the Netherlands with Joris Dekkers, managing director NL at Better Collective, Steven Vrolijk, founder of KVA, and Frank Op de Woerd, co-founder at CasinoNieuws.
Calendar
Jun 8: Gaming in Holland
Thai moves
A report from Bloomberg suggests MGM Resorts and Galaxy are laying the ground for casinos in Thailand.
In an apparent response to worries that Macau might never get back to being the money-making machine it was pre-pandemic, the two operators are reported to be exploring the potential for opportunities elsewhere.
Despite this year’s bounce, the report suggested insiders are fearful that any boom may be short-lasting and constricted by China’s wish for Macau to become more entertainment-led.
Bloomberg reported that, pre-pandemic, Chinese visitors made up 28% of Thailand’s tourists, followed by Malaysians and Indians.
The report suggested MGM has set up a base in Thailand and was one of a number of firms that spoke with a Thai parliamentary committee looking into legalizing casinos.
However, an MGM spokesperson denied having a base in Thailand and said the company had not spoken to a committee.
Tabcorp investor day
‘Australia’s biggest startup’ says it is delivering on its promises.
It’s a new day: CEO Adam Rytenskild said Tabcorp was focused on winning market share following last year’s demerger with its lottery business as well as focusing on growth opportunities ex-Australia.
A key element of the strategy has been to achieve parity with its commercial rivals in terms of taxes and fees to racing.
Rytenskild noted progress in Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales towards new point-of-consumption tax regimes.
“These are strong outcomes in our business and substantial progress,” he added.
This is the modern world: As one of its ‘big bets’, chief customer officer Jenni Barnett said Tabcorp’s hope is to control 30% market share by 2025 by modernizing the brand, “dominating racing” and by “doubling down” in other key sports including from the US. The company also intends to “sweat” its land-based outlets.
Right back at ya: Rytenskild acknowledged Tabcorp was attempting to regain ground from the competition.
“Having been disrupted, we’re now looking to disrupt,” he said.
Looking at the martech that the company now deploys, Rytenskild said Tabcorp “now has a Ferrari, but we have to learn how to drive it”.
Analyst takes
DraftKings: Jefferies suggested the lack of any further state openings this year means visibility for reported earnings is improved, while concerns over cash levels are “mitigated”. There are also “limited prospects” for surprises and cash-flow positivity is forecast for H2 this year, accelerating into 2024.
The “critical importance of this pivot” is that no further cash will be needed to fund the entry into the larger states of California, Florida and Texas where the prospects for near-term legislation have faded.
Genius Sports: With two years remaining on its NFL agreement, JMP said Genius is “confident” that with its Second Spectrum offering bringing “value-enhancing” elements, such as in-stadium betting, camera augmentation and fan engagement to the NFL, that it will be “increasingly difficult” for the league to look to another data provider.
That said, any extension announcement won't be made in the near term; JMP said it was looking to after the 2023-2024 football season for any news on a continuation.
They added that Genius felt it “does not get enough credit” for the global reach of its English Premier League rights.
A renewal there would “serve as a catalyst” and JMP reported that Genius has a “similar view as the NFL to its importance in driving value for the league”.
Full House Resorts: After taking a trip to Colorado to check on the progress with the Chamonix Casino rebuild, the team at CBRE said the company is confident in having a “mostly complete” complex by the December opening.
Compared to the recent opening of the completely new Temporary casino in Illinois, the analysts said Chamonix will be “smoother” due to an existing license in Cripple Creek, existing databases and labor pools and fewer regulatory surprises.
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Startup focus – GamePLAI
PLAI for today: Co-founded in 2021 by data scientists Graham Savage and Nikos Volakis, the London-based GamePLAI is an AI-assisted odds provider whose first product focuses on micro-markets.
Angels and stars: The company is an alumna of the Techstars accelerator program and has some notable angel investors on board, including ex-Pinnacle trading director Marco Blume and former head of corporate development at Banach Donal Barron.
What’s the big idea? Savage says that as data granularity and reliability increases, there is an opportunity to more accurately automate market pricing for a wide range of sports.
“Through our modelling approach we are able to create more accurate pricing and through automation we reduce the manual overhead on trading teams, enabling trading experts to focus on more value-added tasks,” he suggests.
Micro-managing: The initial focus on micro-markets makes the US the natural target market. Still, the first product to market is an NBA solution that Savage says was chosen for its global appeal.
“We have recently launched our NBA product with Superbet, which represents an incredible endorsement,” he adds.
The company will be live with multiple partners in both Europe and the US come the fall.
“Our ambition is to be the most technically progressive purveyor of pricing solutions in the market,” Savage says.
The company will be expanding its product range to incorporate same-game parlays, player props and a full in-play solution in due course.
Growth company news
The Unit has announced it will be supplying marketing services to gaming platform PlayStar in New Jersey.
BettorEdge and BettingLadies.com have launched what they say is the first sports-betting community for women.
Simplebet has announced a partnership with BlueBet’s US-facing operation ClutchBet to deliver micro-betting solutions.
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Career paths
Wynn Resorts has extended the employment agreements of CEO Craig Billings and CFO Julie Cameron-Doe to June 2027 and June 2026, respectively.
Esports Entertainment Group has reappointed Damian Mathews as its new COO. Matthews left the group in December
Lam Yi Young will step down as deputy CEO of Genting Singapore’s Resorts World Sentosa on June 30 after just six months in the role.
Svenska Spel has named Frank Hojem as its new head of communications and sustainability. Hojem joins the Swedish lottery from banking group SEB.
The Dutch regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) has appointed Adriane Koppe and Monique van Oers as chairs on its appeals committee.
Valeria Sükiläinen has rejoined Betsson as chief product officer three years after leaving the group.
Newslines
Cambodian casino operator NagaCorp has pushed back the completion data of its $3.5bn Phnom Penh project by three years to 2029.
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