Earnings+More

Spirited away

Earnings+More — Wed, 06 May 2026 07:24:25 GMT

Specter of a pressured gaming consumer rises again on inflation fears.
In +More: Wynn reported to be considering UAE delays.
Sandler says goodbye to Entain as Eminence plans to cash out.
Venture playground: XO Market raises with self-serve predictions.

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Gas guzzled

Running out of runway: The first US airline casualty of the Iran war hit at the worst possible moment for Las Vegas. Spirit Airlines, the bright-yellow ultra-low-cost carrier that for years drove leisure fares into the basement, ceased operations just after midnight on Saturday (May 2).

The news comes at a time where Las Vegas appears to have posted a tentative recovery versus the previous summer’s doldrums.
MGM Resorts and Caesars spent their recent respective earnings calls trying to convince investors that a tentative recovery is real.

The pair posted Q1 Las Vegas numbers that were better than feared, on the back of a stacked group and convention calendar, and they were backed up by March’s positive numbers.

Strip GGR of $780m represented a 14.4% YoY leap while RevPAR was even better, up 16% YoY.

The big tent: On his company’s Q1 call, MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle argued that his company’s Q1 earnings was evidence that the city was adapting to new leisure market demands.

“Today’s consumers are decisively gravitating towards live events and experiential travel in Las Vegas,” he said, pointing to the preponderance of sports attractions.
“The ability to attract professional sports franchises and tentpole events exemplifies Las Vegas structural resilience,” he added.

Highs and lows: Over at rival Caesars Entertainment, meanwhile, CEO Tom Reeg said Vegas is “obviously in a much healthier spot than it was in the middle of last year, starting in the summer.”

But he noted the company was still seeing a bifurcation of “exceedingly strong” weekends and weeks when the market has significant group events and “weeks that are soft.”
Analysts remain cautious. Truist noted the “higher highs, lower lows,” dynamic, while Citizens called Q1 the trough for MGM’s Strip properties and CBRE said Vegas was “getting less worse.”

Spirit leveled: But this commentary came before the Spirit shut down. The carrier had already shrunk dramatically at Vegas’ Harry Reid International Airport, with Q1 passengers down 72% YoY, dropping it to the eighth-busiest carrier, so the immediate seat-loss is manageable.

All 16 Vegas markets Spirit served are flown by at least one other airline, and Allegiant, Frontier and the legacy carriers are adding capacity and capping rescue fares.
But the bigger concern is what happens to the price floor, with Spirit being seen as the operator that kept prices in check across the market.

Running out of road: Another worry is the impact of high gas prices at the pumps. Reeg was keen to stress that Caesars doesn’t see any direct correlation between higher gas prices and Las Vegas visitation.

“I would say correlation between gas prices and spend in our portfolio is not particularly high,” he told the analysts.
But he admitted the situation could change depending on the length of time that fuel costs stayed at elevated levels.
“Obviously, as you can certainly get to a level or extended a period of time where that may change,” he said.

A similar hedging came from Hornbuckle. While extolling the company’s status as a purveyor of luxury brand experiences, he said that despite “many headwinds whether they be air or gas” MGM was “yet to see a slowdown.”

But he also warned “that doesn’t mean over summer that can’t happen because booking cycles still remain short.”

It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad world: For now, Vegas isn’t the epicenter of the fuel shock. But of the major US gaming markets, none is more exposed to airline capacity, drive-in fuel costs and discretionary leisure spending all at once.

As Hornbuckle told the analysts: “It’s a crazy world out there right now.”
How the ongoing conflict affects the sector is hard right now to discern.

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The last resort: Wynn Resorts is reported to be considering postponing the expected opening date of its Al Marjan Island casino resort in the UAE due to construction delays caused by the ongoing Iran/US conflict. Bloomberg said that the presence of attack drones and missiles in the region has caused work disruptions and a slump in tourism. Wynn reports its Q1 earnings on Thursday.
New debt: The Apollo Global-owned The Venetian Resort Las Vegas is seeking to raise $2.35bn in debt to refinance its capital structure, including a $1.175bn term loan led by Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase. The deal reflects renewed demand for high-yield debt, with pricing at 3.75 points above benchmark as leveraged loan issuance rebounds.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas Sands is refinancing $1bn of senior notes due August with two $500m issuances: one set of notes maturing in 2031 and another due 2033. Remaining proceeds will cover transaction costs and general corporate purposes, extending maturities at higher interest rates.
All clear: A hedge fund broker called Clear Street is partnering with Kalshi to offer hedge fund clients access to event contracts, deepening institutional entry into prediction markets. The futures commission merchant will connect to Kalshi’s exchange and clearing house, alongside new swap capabilities for ETF issuers.
Kentucky Derby: Churchill Downs reported record $487m all-sources handle for Derby Week, up 3% YoY, and expects record adj. EBITDA, rising $15m-$18m. However, betting on the Kentucky Derby itself fell to $225m, while full-day handle declined to $340m. TwinSpires posted a record $129m handle on Churchill races, up 6%.
Genius Sports has completed its acquisition of Legend, the owner of Covers.com, Casino.org and Casino Guru, in a deal valued at up to $1.2bn. Genius Sports reports its Q1 numbers tomorrow, Thursday.
While my guitar gently weeps: The topping-off ceremony for the Hard Rock Las Vegas took place last weekend. The ~$5bn development, featuring Hard Rock’s signature guitar body shape, is expected to open next year,

Earnings in brief

Accel Entertainment reported record Q1 revenue of $352m, up 9% YoY, while adj. EBITDA also increased 9% to $54m. The distributed gaming operator cited continued strength in Illinois and developing markets, including Nebraska, alongside momentum from ticket-in, ticket-out technology rollouts and ongoing preparations for Chicago gaming terminal expansion.
SkyCity Entertainment has cut its FY26 EBITDA guidance, citing weaker consumer spending and declining visitation across New Zealand and Australia. Underlying EBITDA is now forecast at NZ$180m-NZ$190m ($106m-$112m), down from NZ$190m-NZ$210m. Rising fuel costs and softer economic conditions were flagged as key headwinds impacting demand.

Deal talk

Minority shareholder at DoubleDown Interactive, Four Tree Island Advisory, has urged the company’s independent committee to reject the proposed take-private offer from majority owner DoubleU Games, arguing the $11.25 per share bid materially undervalues the company. Four Tree said the proposal largely reflects DoubleDown’s cash position while assigning little value to operations despite EBITDA growth and acquisitions, including SuprNation and WHOW Games.
Greentube has entered the Czech online gaming market via the acquisition of local sportsbook and casino operator Kingsbet CZ. The deal supports Greentube’s broader European expansion strategy while providing Kingsbet access to additional investment, technology and gaming content.

Sandler departs Entain

Unhappy Gilmore: Ricky Sandler has announced he will be stepping down as a director at Entain after two-and-a-half years on the board. It follows the winding up of the Sandler-founded and led Eminence Capital activist hedge fund, which built up a sizable position in the company.

That position will now be “liquidated in an orderly manner” but with the intention of “maximising value realisation.”
Still, the shares fell 5% on the news of Sandler’s departure.

Sandler said in his statement that in his time on the board, Entain has seen “significant operational transformation,” but it is debatable whether this was necessarily his aim when he lobbied for change.

After building up a ~6.5% stake in the company, Sandler first made an open complaint about the cost of Entain’s acquisition of Polish operator STS.
Subsequently, he was invited onto the board and immediately set in process the appointment of Moelis to advise on potential sales of elements of the business.
However, despite publicly putting the Georgian business up for sale, the net result has been no movement in breaking the company up.

I can almost remember their funny faces: One industry source with knowledge of the situation at Entain pointed out that the Eminence Capital “reconception” was that Entain had been wasting money in M&A. “But that was the wrong prognosis,” the source added.

“The only thing he called right was that Jette [Nygaard-Anderson, former CEO] had to go,” they added.
“But his big plan – to sell off bits of the business – fell apart on contact with reality. Entain proved unsurprisingly difficult to sell off piecemeal.”
The source went on to question exactly what has been achieved “strategically” in the two-and-a-half years. “Entain hasn’t bought anything, it hasn’t sold anything,” he said.

E+M PRO

Flesh wounds: The speed of the rise of predictions means that when Flutter and DraftKings report this week, the questions will no longer turn on whether they have seen any effect on their respective businesses but to what extent predictions have not taken a bite out of OSB.

See Monday’s The week ahead earnings preview edition (PRO subscribers only).

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Venture playground

Funding news

House Advantage Fund

Main stream: The user acquisition financing platform offered by Discerning Capital and PvX Capital has announced its strategic partnership with Maincard, the iGaming sector no-code provider, to provide non-dilutive capital.

Maincard’s ecosystem powers operators across 185-plus countries and is one of the fastest-growing operator ecosystems in iGaming.
It enables entrepreneurs to launch fully licensed brands in minutes through its Sandbox platform.

Through the House Advantage Fund (HAF) partnership, Maincard’s top operators will gain a direct path to performance-based financing, allowing them to scale user acquisition and improve marketing efficiency without unnecessary dilution.

HAF’s previous deals include a $100m facility arrangement with Midnite, which it followed up with a $15m facility for PowerPlay.

Box clever: Valerii Makovetskii, CEO and founder of Maincard, said the company’s Sandbox was “built to eliminate the infrastructure barrier for operators.” He said that partnering with HAF “closes the final gap” with access to capital that “actually matches how iGaming businesses grow.”

Davis Catlin, managing partner at Discerning Capital, said that by partnering directly, HAF could identify high-performing operators earlier and deploy capital faster.
“This is the kind of repeatable, scalable growth model the industry needs,” he added.

To find out more, click here.

XO Market

Pick your own: The prediction market startup has raised $6m in a seed funding round led by Coinbase Ventures, 20VC, Picus Capital and Venture Together, as it looks to offer a next-gen prediction markets platform designed to allow users to generate their own markets.

Co-founder Ali Habbabeh told CoinDesk that the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket are already old hat in deciding what markets should exist.
“We’ve flipped that model entirely,” he claimed, while on LinkedIn fellow co-founder Walid Al Habboul teased that the next products would be XO Vaults and XO Parlays.
The core proposition is a more decentralized, creator-led ecosystem where users can design markets and earn fees, potentially accelerating content breadth and engagement.
XO is effectively betting that user-generated supply can scale liquidity and variety faster, mirroring social media or creator-platform dynamics.
However, this approach may amplify moderation, quality control and regulatory risks.

Growth company news

Odditt has launched a B2B betting content platform and said it is in the process of raising a $1.5m seed funding round. The new platform delivers ready-to-embed wagers, contextual betting content and automated parlays through widgets, feeds and APIs for sportsbooks, DFS operators and prediction markets.
New intel: The now former CEO at Verse Gaming, Dan Zimmermann, has written about his new venture, Betting Intelligence, which he said is a private intelligence firm dedicated to the extraction of real-time signals intelligence from betting markets. He said he will serve the company as chief intelligence officer and board member.
ALT Sports Data has partnered with Caesars Entertainment to launch an advanced Formula 1 betting product across Caesars Sportsbook and William Hill. The offering uses real-time data, predictive modeling and race simulations to enable dynamic pricing, live micro-markets and integrated pre- and in-race wagering.

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Upcoming earnings

May 6: Light & Wonder, Lottomatica, Flutter
May 7: Genius Sports, Full House, Inspired, Wynn, Codere Online, DraftKings (earnings)
May 8: DraftKings (call)
May 11: Super Group (earnings)
May 12: Super Group (call), Brightstar, Catena Media, DoubleDown Int.

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The week ahead

Earnings+More — Mon, 04 May 2026 09:20:39 GMT

The bullet

Flesh wounds: The speed of the rise of predictions means that when Flutter and DraftKings report this week, the questions will no longer turn on whether they have seen any effect on their r…

Area under construction

Earnings+More — Fri, 01 May 2026 09:32:09 GMT

Eating out

Earnings+More — Fri, 01 May 2026 07:53:24 GMT

Cannibalization is happening but not necessarily in OSB states.
In +More: High Roller announces ROLR predictions brand.
Earnings: Evoke disappoints, MGM Resorts reassures.
Adjacencies: Greenlight plots a path for commodities predictions.

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Market mapping

Clear and present danger: Even as a new report from ARK Invest positioned sports as being irrelevant to the long-term story of prediction markets as financial institutional play, the debut edition of EKG’s new market monitor suggested the current sports-led offerings hit 11% of sportsbook handle in March.

Adding noughts: The ARK Invest report made much of the potential for prediction markets to become embedded within the financial world and made claim to a TAM of between $1trn and $5trn, but the authors labeled sport-events markets as a sideshow.

Instead, they argued that the early surge in Kalshi sports volumes should be read as a regulatory arbitrage.

Gateway drug: But what sports-events markets have done, the ARK team suggested, is open the door to other forms of prediction market offerings, with the largest opportunities coming in financial, economic and political contracts.

These will offer retail investors a “novel way to gain direct exposure to a broad spectrum of real-world outcomes,” they wrote.
“That opportunity could scale to a size rivaling the derivatives and futures markets.”

Gang of four: In comparison, EKG’s new prediction markets monitor attempted a bottom-up assessment of the current state of affairs and cames up with some striking new figures.

Using a proprietary handle-analog, EKG said the total in March hit $2bn or equivalent to 11% of the total OSB handle figure for the month.
It went on to say that, by this metric, Kalshi is now the fourth-biggest operator, behind only FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics.
Moreover, EKG forecasts that the US sports-events category will hit a handle-analog figure of ~$34bn this year.

Eating for two: Importantly, both reports concluded that a majority of prediction markets custom currently comes from non-OSB states. Indeed, EKG noted that in mature OSB markets, Kalshi’s share of the combined PM-OSB handle sits at just 2%.

They suggested this is a provisional ceiling on cannibalization.
Similarly, ARK suggested sports-based events are “not necessarily” disrupting or displacing OSB.

Scramble stations: Where the reports coincided is over the speed with which companies involved in the space – either on the sports side or on the financial side – are intent on going about the infrastructure build in quick time.

EKG noted the initial phase of prediction markets in the US has “crystallized the value of market-making.”
They pointed to the significance of the Rothera JV between Susquehanna and Robinhood.
Just this week, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev talked up the project, saying it gave the company “end-to-end control of the customer experience, including product selection and pricing.”
“It’s no surprise then that operators across the sector are scrambling to build their own capabilities,” added EKG.

ARK also said the emergence of market makers is central to their argument for institutional adoption.

“Like traditional financial markets, prediction markets rely on institutional participation to quote odds, absorb flow, and otherwise maintain liquid markets,” stated the report.
“Professional market makers will be essential to scaling these markets, especially for complex or multi-leg contracts.”

Seeing the bigger picture: Meanwhile, ARK said prediction markets will allow financial traders to take positions on binary outcomes tied directly to underlying events. This will effectively “unbundle risk and provide direct exposure to specific catalysts or signals.”

“Moreover, event contracts are easier and more intuitive tools for retail investors than complex derivative contracts that appeal to highly sophisticated investors,” the report added.

This only works if we all row together: ARK said that as real-world outcomes become tradable through event contracts, they believe prediction markets are positioned for widespread adoption.

But their scaling will “require the liquidity that ensures market prices reflect accurately the collective wisdom of participants.”
“High liquidity produces a strong signal, while lower liquidity amplifies the noise emitted from uninformed or marginal traders, thereby reducing the precision.”

Soft2Bet Evaluates Alberta Market Entry to Strengthen Canadian Footprint

Soft2Bet has announced its intention to enter the Alberta iGaming market, pending regulatory approval. Leveraging success from its Ontario brand, ToonieBet, the company eyes a market projected to exceed $700 million at maturity. Soft2Bet is currently preparing for technical requirements under the iGaming Alberta Act, overseen by the AiGC and AGLC.

“We are committed to delivering localized, engaging experiences that reflect the unique preferences of each market,” said David Yatom Hay, General Counsel, Soft2Bet.

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High Roller Technologies has announced that ROLR will be its consumer-facing brand for its planned prediction markets platform, anchored by the acquisition of ROLR.com as its primary digital destination. The move supports High Roller’s broader prediction markets push, including its previously announced partnership with Crypto.com’s regulated exchange infrastructure.

Data points

Macau’s GGR reached $2.47bn in April, rising 5.5% YoY, signaling continued but moderating recovery in the world’s largest casino market. The result follows steady gains earlier in 2026, though growth rates have eased from stronger Q1 levels.

Read across

Scambodia: Cambodia has dramatically escalated its crackdown on cyber scam operations, announcing the closure of 91 casinos found to be operating as fronts for online fraud syndicates. See Tuesday’s C+M.

Scary monsters: UK Gambling Commission executive director Tim Miller has pushed back on “ill-informed” criticism of financial checks, while signaling openness to crypto payments and a wider review of regulatory burden. From Thursday’s C+M.

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The big move 1: Hacksaw Gaming has removed CEO Christoffer Källberg, with board member Ana Vrabic Verdir appointed as interim CEO effective immediately while a search for a permanent successor is underway.

The board said the change follows a review of leadership to better align with long-term strategy.
It thanked Källberg for leading the company through its Nasdaq Stockholm IPO last year, adding that operations and strategic direction remain unchanged.
Hacksaw reported its Q1 earnings just this week, showing revenue up 28% YoY to €57.6m while adj. EBIT rose 27% to €47.4m.

The big move 2: The struggling Rivalry has announced sweeping board and management changes as part of an ongoing operational transition, with four directors – Stephen Rigby, Steven Isenberg, Ryan White and Kevin Wimer – stepping down.

White and Wimer also exited their executive roles as CTO and COO, respectively, while interim CFO Demi Abidogun-Benson has also resigned. The company provided no immediate replacements or strategic detail, stating only that further updates will follow.
The last of the founders left is CEO Stehpen Salz.

Novibet has appointed Yiannis Stravroulas as its new CTO. The Fontainebleau Las Vegas has appointed Patrick Crockett to the role of CFO. Affinity Interactive has appointed Chad Brown as CMO. Mohegan Gaming has appointed Scott Schuman as VP of corporate finance.

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Evoke

Duty calls: Marginal operational improvements for the operator behind William Hill and 888 were far outweighed by the shock to the system delivered by the UK’s remote gaming duty tax hike late on in 2025. The move triggered a strategic review for the debt-laden operator and ultimately, likely, an outright sale of the business.

See yesterday’s Earnings Extra edition (PRO subs only).

MGM Resorts

Press refresh: Las Vegas operations returned to top-line growth for the first time in over a year, though one-time insurance costs and lower business interruption proceeds meant the company missed consensus and saw adj. EBITDA fall 9%.

See yesterday’s Earnings Extra edition (PRO subs only).

Red Rock Resorts

Jackhammered: Q1 could have been so much better for Red Rock but the disruption caused by the construction at Green Valley Ranch and Durango turned what could have been a positive adj. EBITDA performance into a negative. The work will continue to hamper performance into Q2 but analysts remain convinced over the long-term locals story.

See the Earnings Extra edition, which will be sent later this morning (PRO subs only).

Earnings in brief

VICI Properties raised full-year AFFO guidance after Q1 results showed AFFO per share up 4.5% YoY and revenue growth of 3.5%. The gaming REIT expanded partnerships, including a $1.5bn mezzanine loan for One Beverly Hills with Cain and Eldridge, and agreed Alberta casino acquisitions tied to Gamehost’s sale. VICI also expected to close its purchase of seven Golden Entertainment properties on or around April 30.
BetMakers reported Q326 revenue growth of 13% to A$23.4m ($16.8m), with adj. EBITDA rising 186% to A$3.4m as margins expanded to 14.7%, highlighting strong operating leverage following cost resets. The quarter included initial contributions from the Crown partnership and LVDC acquisition, supporting US expansion.
Codere reported FY25 gross win of €1.36bn and adj. EBITDA of €225m, up 26.1% YoY, highlighting continued operational recovery. On a constant currency basis, gross win rose 13% and EBITDA increased 40%, reflecting strong underlying momentum.
Raketech reported a transitional Q1, with revenue down 36% to €5.3m and adj. EBITDA falling 7.5% YoY to just €1.2m, though this represented a sequential improvement. Growth in affiliation marketing and new media launches partly offset declines from its sub-affiliation network.

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Connections

Huddle is providing its sportsbook trading products to Entain CEE. The products will be integrated onto the operator’s STS and SuperSport brands with primary focuses on soccer and tennis, as well as betting markets in basketball.
Accel Entertainment now has live table games in operations at its Fairmount Park Casino in Illinois. Strive Gaming will provide its player account management platform to Genting’s Resorts World brand in New Jersey. FanDuel will be the official iGaming partner of the Toronto Tempo for the 2026 WNBA season.
BetMGM will onboard Blueprint Gaming’s Game of Thrones slot game to its platform in Ontario under a multi-month exclusivity agreement. Games Global’s suite of titles are now available on St8’s platform in Ontario. Yosip Gaming has launched its debut title, Level Up, exclusively on Stake.com and Stake’s sweepstakes casino brand Stake.us.

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Adjacencies – commodities trading

Stage three: A day after E+M wrote that institutional adoption of prediction markets was unfolding in three stages, from data consumption to integration through to risk transfer at scale, Houston-based introducing broker Greenlight Commodities announced that the third stage has, in at least one form, now arrived.

The firm said on Monday it had structured, brokered and executed what it described as the first institutional prediction market trade in history, transacted over-the-counter on Kalshi between a Houston environmental hedge fund and Jump Trading.

The trade was structured around the clearing price of the May 20 California Air Resources Board Joint Auction #47, the next quarterly carbon-allowance auction under the state’s recently renamed Cap-and-Invest Program.
Rather than buying allowances directly, the hedge fund used a Kalshi event contract certified for the purpose to express a view on the auction’s clearing price.
Greenlight, a CFTC-regulated introducing broker that sits within the Montauk Capital ecosystem, sourced both counterparties, structured the contract and coordinated with the exchange.

Not ball games: The most striking feature of the trade is what it isn’t. There is no sports angle, no political binary and no Iran-resolution framing of the kind that has dominated the prediction market discourse.

The inaugural institutional print is a defined-risk hedge against a regulated commodity auction.
This is exactly the wholesale, OTC, broker-intermediated structure that participants at Kalshi’s research conference earlier in April were pointing to as the institutional endgame.
Recall, Goldman’s Cyril Goddeeris said macro and inflation data were where Wall Street’s attention was most focused.
Tradeweb’s Troy Dixon described a future of bulge-bracket prediction market desks anchored to financial contracts.

Margin still matters: What the trade does not yet resolve is the margin question Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour flagged at the same conference: a $100 hedge still requires $100 in the clearinghouse, a structure he conceded “a Citadel or Millennium wouldn’t do.”

Kalshi’s NFA licensing for margin trading remains the most important near-term regulatory milestone for category scale.
The Greenlight trade demonstrates the plumbing works, not yet that it works at the leverage institutions actually need.
Greenlight director John Conlon called the transaction “the shot heard round the world for institutional prediction markets.”
He added that “there is not a single event on Earth that cannot be hedged, almost perfectly, with an event contract.”

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Upcoming earnings

May 5: Accel Entertainment
May 6: Light & Wonder, Lottomatica, Flutter
May 7: Genius Sports, Full House, Inspired, Wynn, DraftKings (earnings)
May 8: DraftKings (call)

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Duty calls

Earnings+More — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 11:31:50 GMT

Turning pointers

Earnings+More — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 07:39:26 GMT

Profit drive

Earnings+More — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 17:49:11 GMT

On a roll

Earnings+More — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 12:23:20 GMT

Not buying it

Earnings+More — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:40:36 GMT

Short-seller defense and a $250m buyback fail to convince investors.
In +More: DoubleDown take-private bid, Penn CEO’s pay cut.
Robinhood’s Rothera gamble: from tenant to landlord.
Venture playground: BetHog and Lucra raises, DrawHouse launches.

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Fade to gray

One man on a lonely platform: Sportradar came armed yesterday with a new quarter-of-a-billion share buyback, a personal $10m commitment from CEO Carsten Koerl and plenty of answers to the analysts’ questions when it presented its Q1 earnings, but it left investors unmoved.

The shares fell a further 11% yesterday, leaving them down nearly 50% YTD.
One case sitting by his side: Ironically, the company pulled forward its earnings release by a week in order, according to CFO Craig Felenstein, “better capitalize on the opportunity provided by the company’s current share price.”

Two eyes staring cold and silent: Yesterday’s earnings followed last week’s short-selling attacks from Muddy Waters and Callisto Research, which made various claims about Sportradar’s exposure to gray- and black-market revenue.

On the call, Koerl and Felenstein attempted to rebut the substance of the allegations and also downplay the alleged exposure to gray markets.
Felenstein walked the analysts through the math, and after stripping out various elements of the revenues, came to the figure of a low- to mid-single-digit percentage.

Shows fear as he turns to hide: That is the direct counter to Muddy Waters’ headline claim that between 20% and 40% of Sportradar’s revenue flows from clients operating illegally.

But what the company didn’t do yesterday was deny any of the gray market names that were put forward by the reports.
These included 1xbet, Stake, 188Bet, Yabo, 8xbet and SBOBet.

On the slide: Sportradar’s share price YTD

Hands up: Koerl was on more certain ground countering the ICE sting allegation central to the Muddy Waters report. He did not deny the encounter, saying it was a purposeful sting campaign on a relatively young sales employee at the event.

“No excuse, this should not happen,” he added..
But he argued that such a deal would not successfully negotiate Sportradar’s full KYC chain and that such conversations were anyway “far off from signing a contract.”

Slings and arrows: Koerl went on to suggest that Sportradar was “probably the most attacked company when it comes to sports-data piracy,” arguing that its products are being redistributed with or without its knowledge.

He drew an analogy with Bloomberg terminals, pointing out that when a bank misuses Bloomberg data, regulators go after the bank, not the terminal provider.
“It is not a betting functionality,” he protested. “It is an information tool.”

We’re right behind you: Koerl also suggested he and Sportradar had received “overwhelming” support from partners and clients, from the wider industry and from “some commissioners.”

“And from a regulator perspective, we are in contact with some regulators on a very frequent basis,” he added.
“Some of them contacted our teams, explaining to them the situation, and that’s an ongoing process.”

A swing and a miss: Somewhat overshadowed by the pushback on the short-selling reports, Q1 revenue of €347m was up 11% YoY with adj. EBITDA up 12% to €66m.

This did not help with the investor response as they represented a consensus miss.
But the FY26 guidance was reaffirmed, with revenue forecast €1.57bn at midpoint and €395m of EBITDA.

Power play: On developments around prediction markets, Koerl said they were a “significant opportunity” and that the company was “uniquely positioned to lead” given its content, scale and unmatched product portfolio.

Sportradar was set to “power key players in the prediction market ecosystem,” he added.

Further reading: For more on Sportradar’s Q1 earnings see yesterday’s Earnings Extra edition (PRO subscribers only).

+More

Closing down: Major Entain shareholder Eminence Capital is shuttering after 27 years, citing weak recent performance, rising talent costs and growing infrastructure demands. The roughly $7bn firm will return investor capital, with at least 75% distributed by mid-June. Eminence lobbied for change at Entain and its founder Ricky Sandler secured a seat on the company’s board.
DoubleDown Interactive faces a take-private proposal from majority shareholder DoubleU Games at $11.25 per share, a 22.4% premium, valuing minority shares at ~$183.5m. DoubleU, which owns 67.5% of DoubleDown, argued the move would unlock synergies and flexibility. Texas Capital analysts saw the move as opportunistic and unlikely to succeed.
Penn Entertainment has said it plans to cut CEO Jay Snowden’s compensation by up to 31% to a maximum $17.4m, following shareholder backlash. The revised package increases performance-based incentives after last year’s failed pay vote. Snowden has agreed to the changes, which stem from governance pressure during the proxy battle with HG Vora, settled earlier this year.
Evoke said yesterday it was delaying the publication of its FY25 earnings but by just one day. The earnings announcement will now come tomorrow, with commentators expecting the company to say more about the approach from Bally’s Intralot.

Robinhood on Rothera

Taking over the wheel: Robinhood will launch Rothera – its prediction markets exchange JV with Susquehanna (SIG) – later this quarter, a move that CEO Vlad Tenev said on yesterday’s Q1 call would give the broker “end-to-end control of the customer experience.”

Tenev suggested Robinhood was the largest retail player in the prediction markets space.
The company said April volumes were tracking around $3bn, on pace for Robinhood’s second-highest month ever for the product.

Own two feet: The Rothera move marks a shift for Robinhood. Until now, it has been a broker routing flow, primarily via Kalshi, with some going through ForecastEx. But Rothera flips that, with Robinhood set to benefit from its own retail flow rather than share economics with an external partner.

Tenev said SIG was “one of the largest market makers.”
The Jeff Yass-founded company became Kalshi’s first dedicated institutional market maker in April 2024, the first time a Wall Street firm built a dedicated desk for event contracts.
It is reportedly providing close to 30x the liquidity previously available in select markets.
The hope with Rothera is that pairing Robinhood’s 27m funded accounts with SIG’s pre-built liquidity engine will give the JV both halves of what an exchange needs.

Gaining an edge: According to Tenev, there are “probably more than a dozen” DCMs either live or going through CFTC registration, with little to differentiate them. He expects consolidation within “the next couple of years,” and framed the winners as those with engaged customer bases and an economic edge.

E+M PRO

Caesars Entertainment

Harvest time: Caesars Entertainment posted adj. EBITDA of $887m, barely changed from a year ago, but the headline numbers understate the shift underneath. With the $3bn regional capex cycle wrapping up, CEO Tom Reeg declared the company is now in a “free cash flow harvesting stage.”

See today’s Caesars Entertainment Earnings Extra edition (PRO subs only).

Rush Street Interactive

On the beat: Rush Street Interactive delivered a strong Q1, with revenue up 41% YoY and adj. EBITDA rising 81%, comfortably ahead of consensus. Shares rose more than 15.5% after hours. The operator lifted full-year guidance to $1.49bn-$1.54bn in revenue and $230m-$250m in adj. EBITDA.

See the Rush Street Interactive Earnings Extra later this morning.

Kambi

Soar points: Kambi reported Q126 revenue of €43.5m, up 4.9% YoY, while adj. EBITA rose 64% to €5.7m. Operating profit jumped to €4.2m from €0.8m in the prior-year period. The company reaffirmed FY26 adj. EBITA guidance of €20m-€25m, won a multi-province Canadian sportsbook deal with ALC and BCLC, and entered France via a Turnkey partnership with PMU.

See the Kambi Earnings Extra later today.

Earnings in brief

Hacksaw Gaming: The games provider opened 2026 with a quarter that did little to disturb the bull case: revenue of €57.6m represented a 28% YoY leap, all organic, while adj. EBIT rose 27% to €47.4m, meaning margins remained at 82%. The headline numbers were supported by a deepening game catalog, a 43% jump in average daily rounds played over the last 12 months and 79 new commercial deals,

Star Entertainment: Q326 trading conditions continued to reflect regulatory disruption, lower visitation and ongoing balance sheet pressure. Revenue declined 12% YoY to A$266m ($190.4m), with EBITDA turning negative at around A$1m, reversing a modest A$6m profit in the prior quarter. Liquidity remains tight, with around A$90m of available cash.

ATG: Q1 NGR of SEK1.21bn ($130.4m) was flat YoY with total revenue up 1% to SEK1.39bn, while operating profit rose 22% to SEK326m. Growth was led by iCasino (+20%) and Denmark (+13%), offset by an 11% sports decline. Cash flow improved and costs fell.

Meridian Holdings saw Q1 net income of $2.2m reverse a prior-year loss, with revenue rising 17% to $50.1m and adj. EBITDA increasing 26% to $6.3m, beating guidance. Growth was driven by core Meridianbet operations and broad segment expansion, while the balance sheet strengthened materially, with net debt down 62% YoY.

Octoplay has launched in Georgia through a strategic partnership with Adjarabet, the country’s leading operator. 🇬🇪

Venture playground

Funding news

Hog heaven: BetHog, the crypto-native casino and sportsbook launched by former FanDuel founder Nigel Eccles, has raised $10m in Series A funding to accelerate its push into AI-powered live dealer gaming.

The round, led by Will Ventures and RockawayX, brings total funding to $16m.
The new money will underpin the launch of its new B2B division, Sentient Studios, which aims to supply AI dealers to other operators.

Filthy: Lucra has raised $20m in a Series B funding round led by ARK Invest, marking the firm’s first time leading a startup investment and signaling growing investor interest in gamified engagement infrastructure.

Lucra provides a software platform that allows brands to embed competitive, real-money or prize-based experiences directly into their existing products.
The new capital will be used to expand into additional verticals, enhance the platform’s capabilities and scale partnerships.

In focus – Jurnii

Who are you? Jurnii is a B2B SaaS platform providing AI-powered experience intelligence and competitor benchmarking tools to gambling operators. Jurnii automates the entire intelligence layer, “delivering insights in minutes rather than weeks,” says Fraser Dunk, CEO and majority shareholder. The platform has two core products, Jurnii UX and Jurnii 360.

What’s the big idea? Rather than operators guessing what competitors are doing or running expensive agency audits every six months, Jurnii gives product, commercial and trading teams a continuous, automated feed of actionable intelligence.

“It’s who changed what, when, and what it means for their own strategy,” says Dunk.
He says the long-term vision is to evolve from a research and benchmarking tool into a full decision intelligence platform, “where insights don’t just inform action, they trigger it.”
“Think AI-generated UX prototypes, automated promotion optimization and predictive competitive alerts,” he added.
“The data moat being built today, through mass analysis of thousands of brands, is the foundation that makes that platform defensible.”

KPIs: Dunk says the quality of Jurnii’s early client base is the standout metric. “The business has signed 18 annual clients, of which eight are tier-1 iGaming operators,” he says.

“Getting that caliber of operator to adopt a new platform, integrate it into their product and commercial workflows, and pay a recurring subscription is meaningful validation.”

Funding backgrounder: Jurnii has raised approximately £685,000 in external investment to date, at a current valuation of £4.1m. Notable backers include Haatch, and a number of senior iGaming executives investing in a personal capacity. With over 32 months of runway secured, even under a conservative revenue scenario, Jurnii is not actively fundraising.

To find out more, click here.

Growth company news

Quick on the draw: DrawHouse is a new B2B prize draw platform. Formed by Network Gaming alumni, it aims to lower barriers to entry through a fully managed solution, covering compliance, KYC, payments, draw mechanics and prize fulfilment, allowing partners to launch within weeks.
3et has launched in Ireland’s regulated betting market after securing a local license, targeting experienced bettors with a value-driven sportsbook focused on sharp odds and higher limits. Founded by high-stakes players, the operator is prioritizing core markets such as soccer and US sports. The move marks its first regulated expansion, with broader international rollout planned for 2027.

Upcoming earnings

Apr 29: Kambi, Red Rock Resorts, MGM Resorts
Apr 30: Evoke, VICI Properties (call)
May 5: Accel Entertainment
May 6: Light & Wonder

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www.algosport.co.uk

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Harvest time

Earnings+More — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 08:47:43 GMT

Under the cosh

Earnings+More — Tue, 28 Apr 2026 19:56:04 GMT

Preak performance

Earnings+More — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 10:07:59 GMT

A Cambrian moment

Earnings+More — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 08:27:49 GMT

Financial institutions gear up for prediction markets despite regulatory wrangles.
In +More: Banijay completes Tipico acquisition.
Markets: Sportradar CEO issues stout defense after “personal” attack.
Betsson leaves investors none the wiser on B2B revenue collapse.

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Liquidity events

Life on Earth: Proponents of prediction markets are talking them up as the next stage of the evolution of institutional finance, even as the regulated gaming sector and the CFTC seem destined to continue the legal slugfest all the way to the Supreme Court.

A recent posting from prediction markets investor a16z made the point that the Kalshi research conference in early April included contributions from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Tradeweb and AQR.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour hailed the event as the “first-ever research gathering built around a large-scale and liquid prediction market.”

Terrible lizards: Speaking at the event, Goldman Sachs’ global co-head of equities, Cyril Goddeeris, said macro events and inflation data were where Wall Street attention was most focused.

Tradeweb’s co-head of global markets, Troy Dixon, described a future in which bulge-bracket banks run dedicated prediction market trading desks, with financial contracts as the anchor product.
AQR’s Toby Moskowitz put a five-year timeline on institutional viability, possibly faster.
“It’s not going to be a question of whether we should use prediction markets, but how,” said Garrett Herren from Vote Hub.
“And as soon as you start asking that question, you know it’s become indispensable.”

Lifecycle: Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara said institutional adoption proceeds in three stages: data consumption, integration and actual risk transfer at scale.

Most institutions today sit in stage one, she said, and a meaningful minority are in stage two. But very few have reached stage three.

Back to the Stone Age: The constraint on hitting the last stage comes down to the issue of margin trading. A $100 hedge currently requires $100 in the clearinghouse. “A Citadel or Millennium wouldn’t do this,” Mansour said plainly.

By this reckoning, Kalshi’s National Futures Association licensing for margin trading, announced in late March, with CFTC engagement ongoing, is the single most important near-term regulatory development in the category.

Primordial soup: Sources spoken to by E+M, who opted for anonymity, pointed out that the institutional interest in prediction markets goes far beyond its most successful product to date, namely sports, and that financial, economic, political and other current marginal markets could yet outstrip the sports market.

It helps explain the burgeoning interest on the part of potential new entrants into the market-making space, added one source.
Further, a whole ecosystem is now developing around prediction markets. A recent posting on X from an investment firm called Social Graph Ventures made mention of having had decks from 50+ prediction market startups in the past year.

Evolutionary leap: As one source suggested, infrastructure investment “rarely stops at the obvious,” and if prediction markets follow the trajectory of derivatives and digital assets then several further categories of commercial activity will emerge that do not yet exist in any meaningful form.

The most immediate is structured products: options and derivatives written on top of binary event contracts.
Equity options markets run at three to five times the volume of their underlying spot markets; if prediction market derivatives follow even a fraction of that pattern, the addressable opportunity expands by multiples.
Adjacent to this is the financing layer, such as prime brokerage, margin lending and repo structures built around event-contract positions.
These will develop naturally as institutional ticket sizes grow and participants seek leverage against their conviction.

None of these categories currently exist at institutional scale for prediction markets. But the history of financial markets suggests the infrastructure that looks complete at any given moment is almost always just the beginning.

As Mansour posted on LinkedIn after the Kalshi event, the direction of travel is clear: “The infrastructure now exists, and institutions are starting to organize around it.”

Extinction events: An open question is the extent to which this institutional explosion will be constrained by the ongoing regulatory wrangles.

Bloomberg noted this weekend that the President Maduro insider-trading scandal involving a serving US military officer has now escalated to the White House.
President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that “conceptually” he didn’t like prediction markets and was “not happy” with them.
See tomorrow’s Compliance+More.

Visit our investor page to see why it’s the platform behind the industry’s most successful operators.

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Banijay has completed its acquisition of Tipico, combining it with its existing Betclic and expecting to double revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow. Synergies of around €100m are targeted, while the deal strengthens product capabilities and positions the group for growth across regulated markets.

Earnings in brief

Svenska Spel reported a 2% rise in Q1 net gaming revenue to SEK1.9bn ($205.9m), as online and lottery growth offset ongoing retail declines following the Casino Cosmopol closures. Digital revenue rose 7% to $135.3m, representing 67% of total revenue, while sportsbook and casino revenue increased 3% to $61.2m.

Markets

Yes, that’s the point: Attacking short sellers for putting downward pressure on a company’s share price is akin to accusing vultures of surviving by scavenging.

Such was the accusation from Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl in an open letter published via LinkedIn.
“Yesterday, short-seller reports launched an unfounded attack on Sportradar designed to create panic, place downward pressure on our stock price and profit from the disruption,” he wrote.

The problem for Koerl, his company and its shareholders is that the short sellers will be very happy with their work this week. The reports – alleging black-market activity and links – did their job and the share price subsequently dropped by nearly 25%.

It also prompted Sportradar to move the date of its Q1 report to a week earlier. Although, the company will not speak to the analysts tomorrow (Tuesday).

It’s just business, Michael: Koerl said he took the attacks as being “personal” given his position as founder and major shareholder and their questioning of his reputation, adding it was “alarming to see so many false, misleading and defamatory statements” made in the reports.

Many of the allegations were “either entirely false, poorly researched, deliberately taken out of context” or repackaging the “same tired stories we have heard for years.”
The short sellers had latched on to Sportradar because it was the “gold standard of the industry.”

Strike gold: As Koerl trumpeted, that ‘gold standard’ produced revenues in 2025 of €1.29bn in 2025 and an adj. EBITDA of €290m, and the Q1s will offer the chance to steady the ship. But a longer-term effort will be needed to convince investors.

Notably, Jefferies last week slashed its price target and downgraded the company to Hold.
The team suggested the shares will now likely suffer from an overhang due to the “ongoing regulatory noise.”

The week ahead

Under a cloud: When Sportradar reports its Q1s, the numbers will be a sideshow. The main event is whether the company can credibly counter the Muddy Waters and Callisto Research short reports that wiped 23% off the share price last week.

See today’s The Week Ahead earnings preview edition (PRO subscribers only).
In the same edition, the prospects for Las Vegas will be in the spotlight for Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts, while Evoke finally reveals its FY25 earnings and Kambi will be talking inflection points.

E+M PRO

Churchill Downs

Preak performance: The headline strategic move was an $85m acquisition of Preakness Stakes IP from 1/ST Maryland. Virginia softened due to competition but legislative vetoes on iGaming and skill games eased the regulatory backdrop.

See the Earnings Extra edition to be sent later this morning (PRO subs only).

Boyd Gaming

Nervy: “Fleeting” issues in Las Vegas aside, Boyd will have been happy with the $997m revenue outcome from Q1, albeit with adj. EBITDAR slipping 6% to $317m with the LV Locals and Downtown softness offsetting gains in the South and West regions. The question for the rest of the year is whether the Vegas trough persists.

See Friday’s Earnings Extra edition (PRO subs only).

Betsson earnings

Power of one: Betsson’s pre-announcement in early April of its Q1 numbers had a calamitous effect on the share price, causing a double-digit hit to the share price as investors digested the news of the collapse in B2B revenue.

Those hoping for a clearer explanation from the earnings call of the reasons for the collapse would, however, be left disappointed.
CEO Pontus Lindwall did nothing more than repeat the messaging about the decline being due to issues with “one customer.”
He went on to say that this has “stabilized” since early December and the company was hopeful it can increase its B2B revenues from existing and new partners.

The B2B segment is now worth only 18% of total revenues of €285m, falling by nearly half to €51m and dragging EBITDA down by 36% to €50m. The B2B decline masked some decent growth in B2C, particularly LatAm where revenues rose by 25%.

But it was questions about B2B that dominated the brief Q&A. Lindwall noted it was “very hard” to see how the rest of the quarter would develop for the partner in question.
This has the ring of truth: the one partner in question works in the Turkish market where the authorities have been engaged in a crackdown on illegal gambling.

Slow build: The other story at Betsson is one about margins. Contrary to the nature of the B2B unit, in terms of B2C the percentage of revenue coming from locally regulated and taxed markets has risen significantly to its highest ever level of 73%.

Gross margins have fallen to under 58% vs. 64% previously, and Lindwall acknowledged the rise in gaming taxes being paid was key in explaining the lower profitability.
Still, Lindwall insisted the company would continue to invest in nascent B2C markets, even in the face of the tax headwinds.
He added that all Betsson’s current local regulated B2C markets “have taken many, many years to build up.”
“So that’s how business is made, and we have to keep investing in the markets that we believe in,” he added.

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Product placement – FanDuel’s Bet Protect+

Insurance coverage: FanDuel has launched an opt-in feature offering full-game injury protection on player prop bets, designed to address what it said is a long-standing frustration in US sports betting.

Existing safety nets typically only refund bets when injuries occur in the first quarter or first half, usually as bonus credits rather than cash.
Bet Protect+ “closes the gap” by covering the entire game.

The commercial logic is grounded in data. FanDuel’s product team found that half of NBA injuries this season occurred in the second half, with the third quarter representing the highest-risk window.

This is precisely when traditional protection products had already expired.
But with Bet Protect+, customers pay a transparent 3% premium at the bet slip; if a player exits due to injury at any point, straight bets are refunded in full cash and parlay legs are removed with payouts recalculated.

Hoopla: Strategically, the product reflects three distinctive choices. First, the model is self-funded rather than promotional. FanDuel has stated it will not profit from the premium, which covers the cost of providing protection rather than generating margin.

This avoids the industry’s common trade-off of funding generosity through worse odds elsewhere.
Second, the design prioritizes customer agency: more than half of surveyed users preferred paid full-game coverage over free partial coverage.
Third, the timing – an April launch aligned with the NBA Playoffs – maximizes immediate relevance and visibility.

The company said the product also reinforces Flutter’s broader portfolio strategy. The group has consistently positioned proprietary product features as a differentiator across Paddy Power, Betfair, Sisal and Sportsbet, with tailored generosity favored over blanket promotional spend.

There are caveats. The feature is only available in “most” states in which FanDuel operates and the initial scope is also limited to NBA player props.
But still, if the product works as planned, that will likely expand and chances are competitors will follow with paid protection tiers, shifting injury coverage from a promotional lever into a paid product category.

Upcoming earnings

Apr 28: Hacksaw, Caesars, Robinhood, Rush Street Interactive, Sportradar
Apr 29: Evoke, Kambi, Red Rock Resorts, MGM Resorts
Apr 30: VICI Properties (call)
May 5: Accel Entertainment
May 6: Light & Wonder

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The week ahead

Earnings+More — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 07:35:24 GMT

Nervy

Earnings+More — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 15:43:34 GMT

Heading north

Earnings+More — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 10:25:11 GMT

The escape route

Earnings+More — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 08:30:34 GMT

Ontario and soon Alberta help to lift Penn’s interactive gloom.
In +More: Investors file class action against Light & Wonder.
Puts+Takes: Jefferies downgrades Sportradar after short-seller attacks.
Adjacencies: Plus500 flags prediction market progress.

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On the right path

One, two, three, four: Penn Entertainment’s Q1 earnings have given the clearest indication yet that Penn has finally managed to find a path to producing profits from online after its calamitous Barstool and ESPN Bet adventures.

The interactive segment produced a $78m YoY swing and cut losses to just $10.8m in the first three months of the year.
The only thing stopping the unit from getting into the black is $20m of upcoming launch expenses in Alberta.

What are we fighting for? “Outside of Alberta, our break-even interactive guide for the year is unchanged,” said CEO Jay Snowden, who noted the trough would come in Q3 before interactive moves into profitability in Q4.

Q1 showed interactive revenue rising 23% to $358m, driven by a 15% uplift in iCasino.
OSB revenue was down ~5%, but it was the dramatic 65% fall in marketing expenses that was telling.
Total revenue rose over 6% to $1.78bn with adj. EBITDA climbing 53% to $266m, helped by consensus-beating percentage rises in the B&M gaming segments of the South and Midwest.
Analysts at Citizens said the exit rate from Q1 suggested consumer demand was “encouraging.”

I ain’t marching anymore: The digital turnaround came after the company pivoted in the wake of the ending of its ESPN Bet partnership toward its position in Canada with theScore and a refocusing in the US toward the Hollywood Casino-branded iCasino operations.

In the wake of these moves the company also sought out a resolution to its long-running dispute with activist investor HG Vora.
“Canada is really driving a lot of our results, Hollywood standalone iCasino in the US driving results and OSB being maybe less important overall to the interactive story,” Snowden told the analysts.

I’m just a typical American boy: Snowden has previously been vocal about the impact of prediction markets on the US online ecosystem, and on the Q1 call he noted their rise was having an impact across the online business.

“Since prediction markets have really gotten aggressive on spending, and it appears there’s some impact, at least on the customer acquisition cost side and potentially on the OSB handle side of things,” he said.
The acknowledgement that prediction market spend is pressuring CAC echoes the commentary from BetMGM’s Adam Greenblatt.
He said mid-month during his company’s Q1 earnings call that the “most significant change in the operating environment for OSB during the quarter has been a significant increase in CPAs.”

From a typical American town: Snowden did not add to his previous calls for state regulators to “go to war” over prediction markets. As per his comments at the East Coast Gaming Congress last week, Snowden said he believes the regulators and operators “have to work together.”

“From my perspective, this can’t get in front of the US Supreme Court fast enough,” he told attendees in Atlantic City.
He warned then that commodity prediction market slot machines could be next, showing a video of a slot machine he created within 30 seconds using artificial intelligence.
“This is coming.” Snowden said. “This has to be a call to action for our industry.”

Maple syrup: The Alberta launch on July 13 is being positioned as a near-replica of Penn’s Ontario playbook, and digital chief Aaron LaBerge offered a useful data point on theScore’s pre-existing footprint in the province.

“We have as many people on theScore in Alberta as we do in Ontario, so it’s very strong,” he told the analysts.
LaBerge conceded the competitive backdrop is tougher than Ontario’s 2022 opening and that there were “a lot more applicants.”
But Penn is modeling similar player behavior and similar market share outcomes.
The $20m EBITDA drag in 2026 sits within the range flagged on the February call, with Q3 bearing the brunt of the promotional spend.

Relief rally: The news on potential online profitability was welcomed by investors, who sent Penn’s share up 17% yesterday.

E+M PRO – Penn Entertainment

Strength in depth: Penn Entertainment delivered arguably the cleanest quarter of the Jay Snowden era. Q1 revenue climbed 6.4% to $1.78bn, adj. EBITDA leapt 53% to $266m and the Interactive segment narrowed its loss by roughly $78m YoY. The company raised guidance, trimmed leverage by a full turn, and teed up a July 13 Alberta launch that now accounts for the entirety of a modest Interactive guide cut.

See the Penn Entertainment Earnings Extra edition being sent to PRO subscribers this morning.

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Breathing fire: Investors have filed a class-action lawsuit against Light & Wonder in Australia, alleging it misled the market over risks tied to its Dragon Train game. The suit claims undisclosed legal exposure to Aristocrat inflated expectations, with subsequent rulings and a $127.5m settlement driving share price losses. Light & Wonder said it will vigorously defend the claims.

E+M PRO

Boyd Gaming shares fell nearly 5% after a Q1 miss, despite YoY growth in revenue and adj. EBITDA and margins above 39%. Core retail gaming drove Midwest and South strength, aided by investments and easier comps. Online revenue and EBITDA declined sharply. The company returned $170m to shareholders via buybacks and dividends. See the Earnings Extra edition being sent to PRO subscribers later today.
Gaming & Leisure Properties reported Q1 revenue up 6.3% and AFFO rising 9.2%, with lease coverage largely above 1.8x. The company raised full-year AFFO per share guidance to $4.08-$4.12. GLP deployed $159m into projects with Cordish Companies and Bally’s Corporation, maintaining leverage at ~5x EBITDA.

Read across

Exit light, enter night: The black market is now leaching up to half of all online gambling activity in the Netherlands, providing a stark warning about what happens when regulated national regimes become too strict and too costly to operate within. From Tuesday’s Compliance+More.

+More careers

IGT has appointed Mark Wadley as incoming president of land-based gaming, where he will oversee the company’s end-to-end land-based business, including sales, product management, field services, manufacturing, marketing, external communications and government relations. He will report to chief executive Hector Fernandez.
Star Entertainment has appointed Grant Bowie as a non-executive director. Bowie has over four decades of experience in the tourism, gaming and hospitality sector, holding roles at Park Place Entertainment Corp., Wynn Resorts and MGM China. Giles Potter has joined ThrillTech as CMO. Ainsworth Game Technology has appointed Matt Smith as VP of marketing and product strategy. Playson has promoted Kateryna Oliinyk to CFO. Pragmatic Solutions has appointed Michael Wallington as CPO.

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Puts+Takes – Sportradar

I’m shocked to find that gambling is going on in here: In the wake of the news about the two short-selling reports on Sportradar released this week by Muddy Waters and Callisto Research, the analysts at Jefferies have moved to downgrade the company.

The team said this has been done because the shares “could be rangebound in the near term, while the company’s business practices face scrutiny.”

Mud sticks: Sportradar issued an immediate denial, saying the reports contained “several factual inaccuracies” and characterizing the authors as “short sellers trying to erode shareholder value and profit from stock disruption.”

But the Jefferies team said that regardless of the credibility of the claims, the “persistence” of questions over the management of clients would mean the overhang for the shares would persist.
“In our view, similar historical circumstances suggest that questions of legality can persist for long periods, perhaps years, which could limit recovery and valuation upside,” they added.

Check your priors: Moreover, the analysts added that it was difficult to assess Sportradar’s potential revenue exposure to questionable sources” and that this “challenges the exercise of defining a core of visible revenues and profits and therefore a base value for the shares.

The team added they have “no knowledge of any active examinations by regulatory bodies at present.”
But they “consider the risk that there could be in the future given the more material recent Callisto and Muddy Waters reports.”

www.algosport.co.uk

Connections

Hacksaw Gaming’s slot titles will become available in Spain and Peru through an agreement with Retabet. Caesars is to integrate MLB player imagery across its Sportsbook and William Hill Nevada mobile apps and retail locations under a multiyear licensing deal with the MLB Players Association. High Roller Technologies is partnering with major shareholder Spike Up Media’s Lines.com ahead of its entry into the prediction market space in the US.
DigiPlus Interactive has received three online gaming licenses in South Africa from the Western Cape Gambling and Racing Board. Digitain can now offer its online gaming content in Ontario after receiving approval from the province’s Alcohol and Gaming Commission.
Soft2Bet launched five brands over the first quarter, including Lodur in Sweden, Zinx in Romania, and Betinia, Betoro and QuickCasino in Denmark. The group said it has obtained a conditional license application in Alberta. Genting Malaysia is considering implementing AGIBot’s AI and robotics technology across its businesses under a memorandum of understanding.

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Adjacencies – Plus500

Bonus: Plus500 used its Q126 trading update to flag meaningful progress in prediction markets. The group launched its US B2C prediction markets offering in February 2026 and it plans a next-gen iteration in Q2, featuring enhanced capabilities and an expanded product suite aimed at retail customers trading regulated event-based contracts.

On the B2B side, Plus500 continues to build on its role as clearing partner for the CME Group and FanDuel’s event-based contracts platform.
It is a tie-up it described as reinforcing its status as a provider of institutional-grade market infrastructure.
The company signaled that further strategic partnerships across its B2B futures and prediction markets businesses are expected in the short- to medium-term and suggested the pipeline of infrastructure deals is active.

A position of strength: The strategic expansion is landing alongside a strong set of financial numbers. Revenue for the three months to March 2026 rose 18% YoY and 24% QoQ to $242m. Customer income hit a five-year record of $271m, up 53% YoY, which the company attributed to its strategic tilt toward higher-value customers combined with elevated market volatility.

EBITDA reached $95.7m, a 19% QoQ increase, delivering a 40% margin despite roughly $16m of incremental customer-acquisition investment.
New Customers climbed 48% YoY to 39,867, while actives rose 21% to 157,703.
The average user acquisition cost fell 5% QoQ to $1,196, which Plus500 framed as evidence of the scalability of its proprietary technology-led acquisition model.
The US business generated approximately $35m of revenue, up roughly 45% YoY, and the February completion of the Mehta acquisition opened access to India’s retail derivatives market.
The company now expects FY26 revenue and EBITDA to exceed consensus forecasts of $779m and $360m respectively, citing the increasingly diversified global footprint.

Upcoming earnings

Apr 24: Betsson
Apr 28: Hacksaw, Caesars, Robinhood, Rush Street Interactive
Apr 29: Evoke, Kambi, Red Rock Resorts, MGM Resorts
Apr 30: VICI Properties (call)

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Wish you were here

Earnings+More — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:46:04 GMT

Europe endless

Earnings+More — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 17:42:56 GMT

Will to power

Earnings+More — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 08:54:46 GMT

Bally’s Intralot would be taking over from a position of strength.
In +More: Caesars talks extended, Polymarket eyeing $15bn valuation.
FDJ United vows UK turnaround as revenue slumps 24%.
Charles Schwab is a maybe on predictions, but a hard no on sports.
Venture playground: Moon Intelligence bets on the sharp end of the market.

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Power play

Live dangerously: Bally’s Intralot is pursuing rival Evoke from a “position of strength not desperation,” according to CEO Robeson Reeves, who said the 50p-a-share offer was “not financial engineering” but “absolute strength.”

“If you look at all of the competitors – and especially the big five – in the UK in Q1, we grew faster than the others in the market,” he crowed.
He added that Bally’s Intralot was “uniquely positioned” to deliver on synergies that sources suggested the company believes could be in the hundreds of millions.

To live is to suffer: The difference in margin being achieved by Bally's Intralot vs. Evoke is stark. As was shown in Monday’s figures, the B2C online division saw margins for FY25 come in at a shade under 40%.

In comparison, Evoke said in a FY25 trading statement in January its adj EBITDA margin would be ~20%.
No wonder Reeves said Bally’s Intralot was “pursuing this opportunity with conviction.”

That which does not kill us: Whether the deal for Evoke goes ahead or not, Reeves made the point that the case for M&A around UK-facing gaming businesses has “strengthened” since he last spoke to the analysts late last year.

He said the hike in remote gaming duty (RGD) has “created a more differentiated competitive landscape.”
“Operators with thin margins and limited scale are under real pressure,” he added.
“I have said on previous calls that we’re actively evaluating opportunities, and that we will not miss a genuinely compelling one.”
“This morning’s announcement is consistent with that posture.”

A wanderer on the face of the earth: Reeves added that the international diversification represented by Evoke’s footprint in countries such as Italy and Romania was a pleasant “by-product” of any deal. Italy is “an appealing market, hard to get entry, and they are scaled there,” he added.

Romania was already on the internal target list; Spain offers overlap with Bally’s existing operations.
“I kind of view some of these as ways to accelerate time,” Reeves said. “To have the international footprint that they have would take many years to have on that scale.”

If you gaze long into an abyss: When asked about Bally Intralot’s lack of experience in terms of running a UK high-street bookmaker, he said it was an “added benefit” from the deal with Evoke that the company has a presence in retail.

“I think it’s a good business,” Reeves said. “It needs to work very much hand in hand with online.”
He noted the potential for advertising on the high street was key to the appeal, adding it was a “free advertising voice on every street in the country.”
He also noted Entain and Flutter Entertainment both have UK high-street estates.

The abyss also gazes into you: The pushback on any Bally’s Intralot–Evoke deal comes down to the balance sheet. Bally’s Intralot closed FY25 with pro forma net leverage of 3.5x on €1.49bn of adjusted net debt.

Evoke carries roughly £1.8bn debt of its own. “We’ll protect the interests of our shareholders, our bondholders and our other stakeholders,” Reeves said.
“That is not a throwaway line. It is the lens through which we’re evaluating every aspect of this,” he added.
COO Chrysostomos Sfatos confirmed that if the deal proceeds “we’re looking into a different capital structure moving forward,” though he did not elaborate further.
Reeves added that the team is “working very hard with our financing providers and advisors to agree the best possible financing structure that fully protects our perimeter” over the four weeks until the May deadline.

The higher we soar: Reeves noted that in the 19 days since the new 40% RGD rate was introduced, the Bally’s intralot business had delivered NGR up double-digits YoY and ahead of the March run-rate.

Active players were up 7% YoY and “while some competitors have been reducing marketing, we have been gaining players,” he added.
“We have not lost customers to competitors, and we have not lost them to the unregulated market.”
“Our brands are robust, our product is competitive and our player base is growing.”

E+M PRO – Bally’s Intralot

On the cusp: The drama for Bally’s Intralot occurred ahead of the earnings call when Evoke confirmed it was in discussions over an all-share combination that would significantly enhance Bally’s Intralot’s heft, particularly in the UK.

See yesterday’s Earnings Extra edition (PRO subscribers only).

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Deal talk

Going into overtime: Caesars Entertainment has extended exclusive talks over an $18bn takeover by Tilman Fertitta, owner of Golden Nugget and Landry’s restaurants, at roughly $32 per share, according to Bloomberg. Financing would include $2bn-$3bn in equity, $4bn-$5bn in new borrowing, and assumption of over $11bn in existing Caesars debt. Fertitta may need to divest some properties to address regulatory concerns, as Caesars operates 52 US casinos. Negotiations were delayed following the death of Fertitta’s father on April 9.
Hype drive: Polymarket is reportedly seeking to raise a further $400m after a recent funding round that valued the business at $15bn, according to Reuters. The valuation marks a sharp increase from $9bn last year, when Intercontinental Exchange acquired a $1bn stake. The report suggested the new round remains open as Polymarket tests appetite for a higher valuation, with rival Kalshi recently reaching a reported $22bn valuation.
Churchill Downs is acquiring the Preakness Stakes IP for $85m, adding it to its Kentucky Derby portfolio via a licensed, asset-light structure with Maryland. Analysts view the deal as strategically synergistic, unlocking media, sponsorship and hospitality upside while providing stable fee-based income.

Earnings in brief

Evolution: Q1 earnings show modest revenue growth but continued margin pressure, reflecting softer European demand and ongoing regulatory headwinds. Revenue fell 1.5% to €513m while adj. EBITDA was down 2% to €335m. In the press release, CEO Martin Carlesund said the company would “never shy away” from the challenges.

See the Earnings Extra edition to be sent to PRO subscribers later today.

FDJ’s Disunited Kingdom

Le crunch: FDJ United’s Q1 earnings laid bare the scale of the challenge facing its UK-facing business, with revenue down 24% as the operator struggles with compliance fallout and a looming tax hit.

But current CFO and soon to be new online chief Pascal Chaffard insisted that exiting the market is off the table.
“The situation in the UK remains difficult,” Chaffard told analysts, acknowledging the performance was “not at the level expected so far.”

The financials: Excluding the UK and the equally traumatic Netherlands, online GGR rose 6% and revenue was flat. But taken overall, online GGR fell 1.1% to €342m and revenue was off by 8% to €213m. Total FDJ United GGR was up 1% to €2.18bn with revenue down 3% to €895m.

The French gaming and lottery unit was also affected by tax increases.
No EBITDA figures were given for the quarter.

ARPU sitting uncomfortably: Crucially, Chaffard identified the core issue in the UK as monetization rather than recruitment. “The main problem that we have is not the number of actives” he said. Rather, it is a fall in ARPU levels. “The acquisition is quite good,” he added.

He linked the ARPU weakness to how compliance has been executed post-Kindred acquisition.
The fix, he said, is integrated task forces and ROI-led marketing spend rather than sweeping cost cuts.

On the 40% online casino tax that took effect April 1 , Chaffard flagged illegal market leakage as the industry’s biggest worry, saying FDJ has pressed the UKGC for tougher enforcement.

“It’s okay to have more tax,” he said. “It’s not okay to not have a level playing field.”

Withdrawal is not under consideration. “We are profitable in the UK,” he insisted. “We don’t have any intention to withdraw,” Chaffard said.
Instead, he framed the turnaround as “a question of some quarters, if not one quarter, some quarters” rather than years.

E+M PRO – FDJ United

What a drag: The quarter exposed two distinct problems: a one-off statistical drag on the French lottery from an unusually favorable Q125 jackpot comparison base and a more persistent performance issue at the online betting and gaming business unit. CFO Pascal Chaffard acknowledged that a recovery will take “some quarters” to materialise.

See today’s Earnings Extra edition (PRO subs only).

Schwab’s red lines

Not that into sports: Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster used the firm’s Q1 earnings call last Thursday to stake out a deliberately narrow lane on prediction markets, telling analysts the broker is “ready to move when and if needed.”

But any offering would be tied to financial and economic event contracts and not sports, politics or pop culture.
Pressed by analysts on whether corporate or macroeconomic contracts might fit Schwab’s core, Wurster agreed that’s the right frame.
“We do differentiate between financial-related events and sports, politics, pop culture,” he said.

Living your best life: Wurster pointed to Schwab’s long-standing philosophy that clients build wealth through ownership and compounding rather than wagering, and was blunt on the gambling question: gamblers “generally lose money,” he said.

Products that don’t align with helping clients “live their best financial lives” are hence off the table.
Timing-wise, Wurster said he had recently canvassed a large group of clients and found prediction markets ranked “very low on the list” of what they want.
He flagged that the likely on-ramp for Schwab is through intermediaries, citing CBOE’s binary event contracts and reported moves by Nasdaq as products that “will act and behave very much like prediction markets.”

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Venture playground

In focus – Moon Intelligence

Satellite of love: “Our expertise is fundamentally different from most VCs in this space,” says Sebastien Sabic, co-founder and CSO at Moon Intelligence, which recently launched its own VC arm. “We’re one of only a handful of firms globally that develops a fully proprietary view on pricing through advanced AI-driven models, complemented by a global team of analysts.”

That combination of “deep quantitative infrastructure” alongside real-world trading and operational experience gives Moon Intelligence a perspective that, as Sabic says, traditional venture investors “simply don’t have.”
“It makes us particularly attractive to a certain type of founder,” he adds. That is highly skilled operators with a genuine edge who are struggling to scale.
“We understand their challenges at a granular level because we’ve built, traded and scaled in this environment ourselves.”
“We’re not just providing capital, but infrastructure, pricing intelligence and strategic leverage.”

No dark side: Sabic notes that “naturally we’re seeing strong initial interest,” following the launch, given a boost by the prediction market boom and the “renewed energy” it has brought into the sector.

“Entrepreneurs are recognizing the structural shifts underway – regulatory progress, improved infrastructure, growing mainstream acceptance – and are keen to capitalize,” he says.
“That surge gives us access to a wide range of high-quality pitches, many complementary to our broader ambitions.”

The data side of the Moon: In terms of the specifics, Sabic says Moon Intelligence is “particularly drawn to products that complement the sharp betting ecosystem where we lead the field,” noting that the “data-driven side” is of real interest.

“We also partner with individual traders who have a demonstrable edge but lack infrastructure to scale,” he added.
The startups that Moon Intelligence backs will be able to tap its pricing models, marketing knowledge and network.
“We’re not passive investors,” he concludes. “We want to be strategic partners.”

To find out more, click here.

Growth company news

Grass is greener: Turf Sports, a betting minnow, has announced it is partnering with Polymarket to launch a new prediction-based product. The company said this will “unlock” its next evolution, suggesting that current offerings “fail to capture how fans actually engage, what they care about, or how they process everything happening across sports.”

The press release went on to say that the matchups, momentum, what fans are hearing and what they’re seeing are “all a collective signal that helps you decide what you believe and how much you’re willing to back it.”
“That’s where this partnership with Polymarket starts, and we’re excited to share more soon.”

High Roller Technologies and Forever Network have announced an exclusive prediction markets marketing partnership ahead of its planned launch into the US. Under the agreement, Forever Network will promote High Roller’s prediction markets platform as well as collaborate on content and targeted audience initiatives.

Octoplay has launched in Georgia through a strategic partnership with Adjarabet, the country’s leading operator. 🇬🇪

Upcoming earnings

Apr 22: Churchill Downs (earnings), Las Vegas Sands
Apr 23: Penn Entertainment, Churchill Downs (call), Boyd Gaming
Apr 24: Betsson, Gaming & Leisure Properties (call)
Apr 28: Hacksaw, Caesars, Robinhood, Rush Street Interactive
Apr 29: Evoke, Kambi, Red Rock Resorts, MGM Resorts
Apr 30: VICI Properties (call)

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